Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[andyb]

Can't imagine Eskin has real Phillies sources any more. Probably from one of his Cleveland radio friends. Of course it is logical for Cleveland to want Crawford. Equally logical for the Phillies to not even consider trading him also.

Now if Rojas goes out and has a great year I could see the Phillies wanting to see what they could get for Crawford. Not sure a closer is what I would want back though.

[Squire]

Brandon Marsh had some knee cleanup done. Out 3-4 weeks but expected to be ready for season opener

https://twitter.com/Phillies/status/1755988855113597296

[zambonir]

One assumes he only started feeling some kind of pain recently or even had what seemed to be an actual injury (like when he ramped up off-season working out) or this would have been done sooner.

[andyb]

Looks like he felt some discomfort in a workout earlier this week, got an MRI, and then had it cleaned out quickly. Does not seem that serious.

Phillies continue search for outfield depth, say Brandon Marsh's injury won't...

[zambonir]

no, but costs him some ramp-up in ST for sure.

i was at the medical building at the Navy Yard today wonder if I missed him! (he could have also been downtown)

[zambonir]

The Gelb story basically says that the Phillies really are committed to Marsh and Rojas. I feel like they could still offer someone 4-500 ABs, but that's not what they are currently promising, and what they do have an offer (two starts a week) isn't getting them anyone better than Cave or Pache. At least not yet.

The Phillies, according to major-league sources, have pitched free agents on a fourth outfielder role that would consist of playing twice a week with sporadic at-bats in between. Despite camps opening next week, a glut of potential fits remain available. Eddie Rosario, Robbie Grossman, Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor haven’t signed with a team. Utility players Whit Merrifield, Kiké Hernández, Tony Kemp and Brian Anderson are still free agents. There won’t be everyday jobs for all of those players and, at some point, the Phillies could find a match.

Dombrowski said the Phillies will monitor the outfield market — ranging from a potential guaranteed deal to minor-league contracts.

[Aquapong]

You’d think guys would be wanting to latch on to a postseason ready roster…especially some of the older guys.

[Austinfan]

There's no rush for these guys, an injury can open up a spot, ST still a couple weeks away for players.
For some plaeyrs, an AAA contract with a waiver date (June 1) might be preferable to being stuck on a bench.

[zambonir]

Honestly they are much better off getting the most money and playing time they can get up front and then they can be traded to a contender, at which point they won't care about playing time. And a few of these guys are still going to legit get $8-12 million and a starting job on a contender once Bellinger signs. Once you get down to under $4 million and less playing time you end up with another Josh Harrison. And Jake Cave or Weston Wilson actually can do that just as well.

[EDmuch]

I can't agree about Cave. He has demonstrated that he is pretty much worthless.

[andyb]

Cave is what he is. He does play solid defense. His minor league hitting suggests he should be able to give you a 700 OPS against RHP and should never play against LHP. If the bench role is 150-200 ABs, then the solid defense in late innings increases in value. A better hitter loses value in a smaller role.

Cave is not that good. But he is at least replacement level. He will not take many ABs from starters (with Rojas the only option at the moment). What Z is kind of suggesting is that none of the better players will want to come to Philly because there is no guarantee of even a platoon role if we want Rojas to play full time. If Rojas struggles on offense against RHP then maybe we try to get 3 ABs against a right-handed starter for Cave before subbing in the 6th or 7th inning, but that is kind of it. Eddie Rosario is not signing for that role.

[zambonir]

Cave was still pretty bad, let's face it - .620 OPS and 69 OPS+. Kody Clemens was actually slightly better, but probably not as good an OF. But yeah, that's what bench players look like if they can play the field. Otherwise they are not bench players, or they are DHs/1B (unfortunately we still have one of those on the 40 who can't hit in MLB either). The number of players in MLB who can actually make just 1-2 starts a week and PH once or twice a week and hit even .250 is probably single digits. That's why managers are always trying to keep their bench players sharp - and then we complain the starter is sitting.

I still wouldn't bet on Cave and Pache (whose progress at the plate last year was completely destroyed by his injuries) both being on the opening day roster. The right guy will present himself at the right price/time, whether in the role Dombrowski is supposedly offering or more if needed.

I don't think they'll repeat last year's mistake - they'll upgrade at the deadline either big (if Rojas isn't quite working out) or small (can just get Tommy Pham or Eddie Rosario then instead of giving them $10 million and a starter's job now).

[zambonir]

Dombrowski's fuller comments here. Denies they are looking to do much.

https://www.mlb.com/news/brandon-marsh-has-left-knee-procedure?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share

“We still think we’re the same way we were beforehand, when it comes to Opening Day,” Dombrowski said. “[Free-agent outfielders] want guarantees, and we’re just not able to give them those guarantees. … We talk to people all the time. The reality is that we don’t have guaranteed playing time that some people want. We just don’t have that. It’s not really even a dollar issue as it is playing time.”

There was another report this week that the Phillies have been talking to Cleveland about closer Emmanuel Clase. Dombrowski does not comment on specific trade talks with teams, but when asked about the chances they acquire a veteran late-inning reliever, he said, “We do not have any ongoing conversations for bullpen guys.

“It’s not to say that as time goes on it doesn’t change, but we have our five guys [José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto and Matt Strahm] and [Orion] Kerkering. I just saw him. He looks tremendous. If you put those six guys that can pitch late in the game, you have to have a long guy. That’s seven [in the bullpen]. It only leaves one other spot, and if you go get a veteran guy, he needs to be an upgrade. Because the reality is the only one there that can be optioned in that group is Kerkering. And we may not want to be optioning him.”

[fish]

Cave’s big league performance hasn’t been good, but you can see the foundation of a pretty good hitter that his AAA numbers back up. With most projects you hope to be able to refine them over the course of a season but some guys need more time to figure it out. He hasn’t earned a spot and maybe the big league game will always be too much for him, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him blossom into a productive hitter. That the Phils gave him a million dollar contract seems to suggest they do too.

[zambonir]

Well, the problem is he's 31 and in his seventh major league season, not really a potential late bloomer like Weston Wilson or a slightly younger player like Clemens. But I guess last year was his first fully healthy season in a while and sometimes it takes a second one.

I think the Phillies gave him that contract because on the one hand it's not at all a lot of money for a team with their budget (they would have otherwise had to non-tender him) and on the other, enough to maybe keep another team from claiming him on waivers. Darrick Hall and Kody Clemons and Weston Wilson may all have higher ceilings as hitters (though I've seen enough of Hall) but Cave is a better OF (and just an OF, period).

[Austinfan]

Kroon and Podkul are going to get shots in ST.
They'll bring in a veteran or two in a few weeks when other options dry up.

[andyb]

Cave was still pretty bad, let's face it - .620 OPS and 69 OPS+.

This is where quoting those stats is cherry picking. He has a career 694 OPS so the Phillies EXPECTING a 700 OPS against RHP would have been perfectly reasonable. He was also out-hitting everybody at AAA by a far margin in a large sample size of plate appearances.

Two things can be true. The Phillies expected him to play better than he did based on past and recent performances. And he did not quite play up to those expectations or projections. Don't throw out those silly Kody Clemens small sample size comparisons either. In AAA Cave outhit him in OPS 1113 to 937. Clemens played well but Cave was better. And he is a real outfielder who can be plus in the corners.

Cave is not that good. But he is also nowhere near as bad as your post implies. The Phillies made the right decision carrying him much of the year because he was their best option. None of that excludes them going after somebody better of course, but that person actually has to be better and want to come here (i.e. accept limited playing guarantees).

[zambonir]

Kroon's not really an OF either though, and neither is Podkul. Also both RH. They'd have to beat out Sosa and knock Weston Wilson off the 40. Which wouldn't necessarily be hard, but none of them really fit what the team needs in MLB, which is either an OF who can hit or a LHB 3B/SS.

One thing we do know is the Phillies like Cave more than Muzziotti. This year and last year.

[zambonir]

I don't think it's cherry-picking to quote someone's complete season stat line. He was also -0.2 WAR, so, technically not replacement level even with defense (and just would have been worse if he played more).

And .663 against RHP. Clemens was .695. They both got dragged down from their ABs against LHP, even as limited as it was (because they were both so bad).

The Phillies actually didn't even carry Cave for nearly half the season. We don't disagree, he's an adequate bench player but still kind of a clunky fit. Doing Pache/Rojas against LHP occasionally makes sense; doing Cave/Marsh against RHP probably doesn't. And if you're a pure platoon player and not an elite defender, .700 OPS isn't really that good.

I don't think the Clemens comparison is silly; I think the Phillies would probably be better with him as the 4th bench player purely for 3B. But he could still stand in LF once every two weeks if they wanted. He's played both LF and RF in AAA.

[andyb]

It is cherry picking when you ignored what he did in the minors and in previous years.

The decision to play Cave was correct last year (really he was the injury replacement option first for Harper and later for others). It was based on his ability. You characterized his ability solely on a small sample and compared him to Clemens also on a small sample where the larger samples of both suggest otherwise. Clemens slightly outhit Cave in the majors last year but the larger evidence suggests he is not a better hitter and that is before you even get to outfield defense.

I agree with Fish's comment. The foundation or potential is there for him to be better. He just wasn't last year in the majors.