Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[BostonRoss]

I think depth is a problem for the Phillies offense. Sosa is OK, but everyone else is a below average hitter and, other than Pache, is not above average on defense either. I'd like them to sign the best LH hitting outfielder they can. Assuming Eddie Rosario can't be had, could Robbie Grossman? He's better than Cave. Brad Miller has payed the OF. I wouldn't mind seeing a backup catcher better than Stubbs, but the pickings are thin.

[zambonir]

Why LHB though? I still think Pache and Rojas are redundant and a good RHB would get playing time in LF for Marsh (and if they can hit RHP themselves could get even more time with Marsh in CF some). Though I'm certainly not opposed to upgrading on Cave.

The bench is always a bit of a Catch-22 if you don't have quality young players available. Last year's team still got by fine with Cave (even when he had an appalling stretch at 1B) and Clemens and Sosa but I'm not sure I'd want to repeat that if a starting corner IF or OF got hurt. I think Miller is basically Josh Harrison at this point.

Something will happen. I'm not sure a single interesting OF or bench bat has signed a guaranteed deal in the recent weeks that we've been talking about this. Everyone is still Waiting For Bellinger.

[BostonRoss]

The way I look at it is that everyone on the bench is replacement value except Sosa, who may be a little better. Pache was better in limited time last year, but he doesn't hit RHP. His main value is that if they pinch-hit for Rojas, he can play a good CF. I suppose he could also be a late inning defensive replacement for Castellanos.

But Cave is the only one who would pinch-hit for Rojas, and he's a poor option. There has to be someone better out there. I'm not sure that Robbie Grossman is waiting for Bellinger.

I disagree that Miller is as bad as Harrison. He wasn't very good for the Rangers, but he was hurt a lot of the time. Seems more worth having around than Cave.

[Austinfan]

Caves and Clemons both blew their chances, got enough PA to show if they were more than AAA+ and failed.
Pache is someone they'll be more patient with, both due to age and defensive skill.
Has Stubbs hit his expiration date?

Problem is there just isn't a lot at the top of the farm system right now.
So they'll probably make minor additions the next few weeks to add options.

[phillychuck]

Cave and Clemens (this time spelled correctly) didn't"blow" their chances. They just didn't really capitalize on them last year. Given their roster status and the frequency of injuries in the big leagues, they may get other chances this year. I'm really offended by fan viewpoints that label players as "chokers" or having "blown" chances. These are real people, young men pursuing their dreams, and I am perfectly happy when one of those guys gets another opportunity, seemingly well after they have failed repeatedly and "blown" other chances. The word "blown" has way too much finality associated with it.

There is only finality in hindsight, when careers are over.

Ask Chris Coste.

"It's not over 'till it's over."

[zambonir]

Cave and Clemens are completely different in my book. One is 27 and still has an option. The other is 31 and doesn't. It'd be nice if Cave can still find his game but I can root for him and not want him on the team at the same time. I hope Nick Maton and Luke Williams and Dalton Guthrie all still get their chances too, but realistically it's a cruel and difficult game.

I don't think "blown" is really that loaded a word though (and not the same thing as choking). It's accurate. Cave and Clemens both got the chance to start at premium offensive positions on a World Series-caliber team and didn't make the most of it. Unlike Rojas they are neither young enough nor good enough to get another chance. Cave would be better off with a bad team and more playing time to sink or swim. Clemens is a prisoner of his option as they will likely keep him for depth but that still probably beats belonging to three different teams in a year like some of those other guys mentioned above.

Chris Coste types are rare, that's what made him such a nice story.

[bkox]

But here is the thing.. We say "didnt make the most of it" like they didnt try or werent coachable. It comes across like its a negative character trait. For most players, its just they dont have the level of talent. Trying hard and coaching can only go so far. Not everyone in the minor leagues has major league talent. It doesnt mean they choked or blew their chance. They were just over matched. Not everyone has the potential to be a superstar or even an MLB average player. Most players that dont make it, are giving 100% effort and are trying to implement what the coaches are suggesting, they have just topped out what their abilities are.

And someone like Clemens, who has a HOF caliber father, may even be trying too hard.

[fish]

Kody Clemens did probably exactly what they expected he'd do. He was a zero WAR player, good enough to put on the field, but not good enough to keep on the field- a warm body you hope can contribute from time to time before getting overexposed.

Cave, well, he might have blown his chance because i doubt if he plays that poorly again that he'll see as many AB opportunities to improve before he gets released. And I hadn't realized it was his third straight season with basically the same amount of opportunities generating the same poor performance. Looking at his baseball savant numbers its hard to pick out one thing to try to fix. He significantly increased his launch angle the last 2 years, and in 2023 didn't nearly hit the ball as hard as in 2022. He get's attacked with fastballs (he hit's .275 against 4 seam fastballs) but routinely gets put away with breaking balls. My eye sees potential, my brain isn't seeing it in the numbers.

[phillychuck]

I don't want to get too deep into semantics here, but I'm saying what I think bkox is saying, too.

I'm much more comfortable saying Cave, for example, has missed his chances than "blown" them. Like 'z' above, I'm perfectly capable of rooting for Cave or Clemens, but hoping the Phils have a better option for their ABs. I'd love to see both those guys make a career somewhere and earn a pension, although with Clemens the pension is probably not particularly relevant.

BTW, here is another Chris Coste exception from the really old days:

"Dazzy Vance exceeded (current) rookie limits in his first full season of 1922 following cups of coffee in 1915 and 1918. He had turned 31 during spring training of that year. He remained an above-average pitcher through age 40, including leading the league in strikeouts each of his first seven seasons, wins twice, ERA thrice, shutouts four times, strikeout-walk ratio eight times, and won MVP in 1924."

[andyb]

Pache is someone they'll be more patient with, both due to age and defensive skill

Really? It seems very likely that if Rojas makes the team Pache won't. And he'll probably be lost to waivers. He has enough hitting failure on his resume that teams will not be that patient with him. If they determine Rojas needs AAA time then Pache is basically a right-handed platoon hedge bet until Pache is ready.

I just can't imagine them keeping both Pache and Rojas long term.

[BostonRoss]

I think of good bench players as people who could help the team by entering the game. For example, a good LH pinch-hitter might hit for Rojas (or even Bohm) in the right situation. He might not be a good enough fielder to play regularly, but he might be more valuable at some point in a game than one of the people in the lineup.

With pinch-hitting for the pitcher a thing of the past, that implies someone who is above replacement level in some aspect(s) of the game. Cave isn't really that. Pache is only better than replacement level defensively; he isn't a super baserunner, and you wouldn't pinch-hit him for anyone (other than Cave or Stubbs facing a LHP, which wouldn't be very often).

[zambonir]

I think what we've seen of the Phillies bench shows how unimportant the front office thinks the bench is, and also how much they value defense and versatility over offense They signed Harrison even though they already had Sosa (and at the time, Guthrie), with no reason to think Harrison was a better hitter at that point in his career. Clemens' bat was never going to play at 1B and Cave's didn't either (though to be fair that happened not just because of the Hoskins and Harper injuries but Hall's). They paid lip service to using Harrison, Clemens and Sosa in the OF (and to using Cave in CF) but never did. And they declined to get anyone at the deadline (besides Castro). The two games where they went with the all-defense all-RHB OF worked out for them; nobody did much of anything as a PH after that (but that's hardly why the Phillies lost the NLCS).

It's hard to find a Matt Stairs (even harder now with universal DH). If they have that much experience and age most of them are cooked and if they're not cooked they are still worthy of a bigger role that the Phillies still aren't offering.

Anyway, still nobody off the board (the Phillies were certainly not interested in Soler) and pitchers and catchers report today.

[andyb]

The Phillies by design just don't use their bench a great deal. They have a full time rather than rotating DH. Their catcher plays more games than anyone else. Their middle infield really should only get rested once every couple of weeks.

The bench playing time spots are really if Marsh/Rojas need platoon partners and if Bohm falters a bit. The biggest daily use is to catch the ball since every bench needs a capable defensive middle infielder and outfielder. If we actually added an outfield bat they might be a small improvement on offense but probably a step back on defense (from Marsh or Rojas). For $5 million or less we are just not gong to get someone that is much better than starting Marsh or Rojas on their weak platoon side.

So filling out the bench is less important. We just need to hope there are no serious injuries.

[Austinfan]

The insurance against serious injuries is a deep farm system, not a 3rd tier veteran on the bench.
That veteran is unlikely to play above replacement for more than a short period, otherwise someone would have paid him and given him a bigger role.
At least a talented kid can potentially surprise.

[andyb]

It is rare that prospects time their arrival to coincide with injuries. Not sure why we are even discussing this though. We are talking about this year's Phillies team. There really are no prospects beyond Rojas. So the bench behind him and in the middle infield is weak. That could be addresses by spending money. Or the team (as currently constructed) is going to cross their fingers on injury and be OK with a weak bench that can at least play adequate defense. That seems to be the current direction of this team.

[Austinfan]

Money isn't enough, players want to play.

No one is coming to Philly if they're good enough to get 400+ PA elsewhere, especially if they're younger and have another contract in their future.

[andyb]

The last 50 years are full of players signing for money. Somebody would come here if the Phillies really want to bring someone in. Bowden keeps pointing to Merrifield who would check all the boxes. Not super in love with his recent production but somebody like him will take up the Phillies offer if they make one. It just does not seem to be a huge priority for them (even though assuming Rojas will hit and Marsh can repeat last year are both risky bets).

[zambonir]

Money is definitely enough. I'm certain Tommy Pham would take $10 million from the Phillies over $5 million from another team with more playing time. And none of the available players are young (few free agents ever are).

One way or another - be it during spring training or the day before Opening Day or at the deadline there are still hitters to come on this Phillies roster.

Rojas was the prospect whose arrival ended up coinciding with (two injuries). Now they're riding with him. And I don't know that going with vets over marginal or near-bust prospects (the likes of Muzziotti or Dylan Cozens or even Hall) is any better or worse. Sometimes the journeyman can give you a little more, sometimes the kid might surprise or at least be hot first time around.

[andyb]

Yes Rojas was that prospect, but you don't build a roster with that in mind. He was on the 40 so he was in the mix for an emergency recall like Muzziotti the year before). We only went with Rojas after going through Dalton Guthrie and seeing Christian Pache got hurt (on top of the Harper injury which further decimated the depth).

There is still likely an outfielder to come. There are just so many unsigned free agents. There is just a risk of playing Marsh and Rojas almost full time and counting on their production.

[Austinfan]

My point is the failure to build a farm system has made it hard to maintain a bench.
Ideally, you produce a steady stream of solid second tier prospects who can compete for bench jobs, and then for bigger roles. Most will fail, but some will emerge.

Right now, the best players at AA and AAA this season
Podkul and Kroon, two older player who lost multiple seasons worth of PA, so credible late bloomers.
De La Cruz, slow but steady progression for a project who simply may be too tall.
Marchan, good defensive catcher who has to show enough power to be a credible hitter
Hall, ML hitter who is LH 1B/DH on a team with Harper and Schwarber, maybe trade for bench player?

Their best prospects in the field will be in JS, Clearwater and the GCL this season and are 2-4 years away.