Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[phillychuck]

It's been slow for everyone this off-season. Phils could still make a splash:

MLB free agent tracker: Diamondbacks add Joc Pederson, but four top-10 players...

[zambonir]

Yeah the slow market is pretty much in the Phillies favor. They could still change their mind and snap up a higher-end piece in any category (SP, RP, platoon OF, bench piece) or even make trade inquiries if the asking price is down. But they also don't really need a major piece. Any reliever they sign could be at Kerkering's expense (especialy since he can be optioned) and any OF at Rojas or Pache's. Doesn't mean they still won't make those moves. Or make compression trades (of Bellatti/Brogdon/Covey or Pache/Cave, none of whom can be optioned).

Yamamoto slowed down the market since that was a 45-day window (plus the two best FAs, arguably, signed the earliest, including our own. Beyond that, as usual, it's Boras. 31 of MLBTR's 50 are signed, but he reps six of the remaining 19, including the top four (according to MLBTR).

[Austinfan]

Given their experience with 2nd tier RPs, it makes sense for the Phillies to bargain hunt rather than overpay given they are adding depth, not filling holes.

[Callison]

Snell seems to be the prize FA out there, but he's not getting a lot of action. Teams must be scared of his ability to stay healthy or the price is abnormally high. The Giants have the cash and a screamin' need - amazing that they haven't signed him. Would $20M/5years do it? DD has to be thinking this one over.

The Phils' scouts could help a lot by finding some underappreciated hitters to compete with Pache and Cave. The Phils' bench doesn't scare anybody.

Sorry to lose out on Hicks - flame-throwing ground ball machine the SF papers called him.

[Aquapong]

Snell certainly had a good contract year. But he doesn’t often go deep into games and runs deep counts quite a bit. I think that’s why teams are hesitant to offer a huge deal to him.

[bkox]

Snell walked 5 per 9IP last year.. wonder if thats thats the highest ever for a Cy Young winner..

[Austinfan]

Eating innings has real value, as long as the pitcher isn't as bad as the #6 SP or your middle RPs.

That is, even a mediocre starter who eats inning keeps you from using that extra starter or overworking good RPs or having to use bad RPs in games that are winnable.

[Callison]

Just read Snell is asking $270M for 9 years. Not even the Yanks will reach that far,

[Florida_Sunshine]

I don't think that's going to happen. The longer he lets this drag out, the more likely he is working his way to a one year deal.

[David_Criss]

Can't blame Montgomery and Snell for their high price tags. What is Montgomery asking? I wouldn't go multiple years on either of those arms - see Jake Arrieta.
I just don't see the Phillies adding a starter. It' not like they can trade for Bieber or Burns. Can they trade for Arizona and send Casteallanos packing? Doubt it.
Looking at what is available do they sign Lorenzen or Junis to replace Covey? Are Maton, Stanek, Giles or Hendrick better than cheap arms already signed for the pen?
This team isn't horrible and can get to the playoffs. The only upgrades I see coming have to be via trade at this point, but no-one is going to take Walker or Casteallanos. Do they trade high on Rojas and to a lesser extent Bohm and Marsh? I think what we have is what we have and that is ok.

[andyb]

They are both going to get long deals. Just not 9 year deals unless they take a really low AAV to get there. We might also see deferred money to make the contracts seem greater than they actually are.

For the Phillies we have seemingly decided on Nola and likely Wheeler for the long term. There is just not room for a 3rd contract in that price range, especially with 2 of our prospects potentially knocking on the door by 2025. Money for this year is better spent solidifying the bullpen and bench (the OF hitter we need).

[zambonir]

Boras always shoots for the moon, if he settles for a short one it will be with a huge AAV. Mostly he just needs to beat Nola's deal, but I'm sure the size of that one - especially when not everyone thinks Snell is by any means better - didn't help his cause. And Montgomery doesn't have a QO attached. One one signs the other will I'm sure.

Neither of them - nor the trade candidates - are doing to drop in asking price to the point where the Phillies get involved, I don't think.

And it does seem entirely possible they won't even sign a reliever but they certainly still can. Will just have to cut or trade one off the fringe guys without options if so.

[Austinfan]

Phillies have probably targeted a few guys they'll move on when the market dries up and prices drop.

[zambonir]

Well, there aren't that many guys left, for the bullpen. David named all of 'em: Junis, Maton, Stanek, Hendriks. Giles probably doesn't get a major league deal. If they don't sign one of them we can presume they were perhaps interested in Stephenson or Hicks but don't consider the other options to be better than Soto and Kerkering (or worth the extra # in the case of Neris/Robertson/Chapman). They've already signed a back-up/potential replacement for Covey (Allard) as the 8th guy, and can go with Bellatti or Brogdon as the #7 with all those optionable back-ups in AAA.

[zambonir]

Quality options for teams in search of bullpen help continue to thin as right-handers Ryan Brasier, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek stand as the best relief arms still available, while lefty relief options include bounceback candidates like Brad Hand, Aaron Loup, and Joely Rodriguez..

(All former Phillies in that lefty group, as was the last one signed, Diekman.)

The Opener: Brewers, Suarez, Relievers

[EDmuch]

I really do not like how things are trending right now with our bullpen. Alvarado seems to be an injury risk, SD remains inconsistent at best. Hoffman is a one year wonder who could pull a disappearing act like Brognan. Not much that is reliable in the pen as it is now constituted.

[Austinfan]

How many reliable RPs are there in the majors?

Though Hoffman has legitimate stuff, the guys who tend to fall off have either marginal stuff that the league catches up to, get injured, or get the yips (lose command of their fastball or can't make a secondary pitch work anymore - see Brogdon and his changeup).

Bullpens are safety in numbers, and it'll come down to all those fireballing young arms they've stockpiled, and their ability to identify some veterans with upside. There will be injuries, and ups and downs, if you can't find a couple arms on your AAA team to promote, you're going to struggle. If for example, Brogdon recovers his changeup, this is instantly a deep bullpen b/c he was a quality inning eater.

As we saw with Kerkering last year, when the light goes on for a big young arm, they can fly up the system as RPs.
Just need two pitches.

[andyb]

What makes you think the Phillies have safety in numbers? The guys in the minors are there for a reason. There are questions about just about all of the major league guys. There is a case to be made that they should stand pat, but that case does come with a risk. It has been kind of nice having a deep and effective bullpen for a change the last 2 years. We are less sure of that coming into this season.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't say this year's group is any less deep and effective-looking on paper than the last two years. Kimbrel was just as big a risk last year as Knebel was the year before (and Knebel still delivered 0.6 WAR amidst his struggles and ultimate injury). Hand was also nothing special that year (nor had Alvarado made his leap yet), while Bellatti was the surprise. Last year, Soto was obviously much less than his closer/All-Star resume while Hoffman was the surprise.

The issues the bullpen had last year were in the playoffs. Can't address that in the off-season. And last year they chose not to truly address it at the deadline either, putting all their chips on either converting a starter - whether that had been Lorenzen or Sanchez - and Kerkering. This year they are more likely to add a name arm in July if the current group doesn't work out perfectly.

They should still add some depth, but hard to actually do that per se when any guaranteed signing means releasing or trading someone else (unless you option Kerkering. Or Soto.) I'm fine with them not snapping up Chapman or Robertson or Neris - all of whom could easily be as frustrating or risky as anyone the Phillies already have (and have been before, in two cases!). But still wouldn't be surprised if Dombrowski turned around and pulled another Soto-type trade.

Arguably that 7th spot should still go to Marte or Mercado or Ortiz to keep it optionable, rather than Bellati or Brogdon, while Allard and Covey will compete for the 8th spot.

[andyb]

We are less deep simply because Alvarado and Dominguez look shakier now due to injury or command. Clearly we have as many potential pieces with the addition of Kerkering. Just fewer sure things at the top. And our AAA depth (Brogdon, Bellatti, Marte, Nelson if we can retain all of them) really is not that good any more.