Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

Austinfan 2024-01-21 23:26:14 UTC #1075

Thing is you only have to hit on one or two young arms, not all of them.
If you don't hit on any, time to assess whether it's your scouting, coaching or both.

Austinfan 2024-01-21 23:27:03 UTC #1076

He's struggled with injuries, has a starter's repertoire, needs to add 1-2 MPH two years back from injury. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't, Phillies will take a long look in ST to see.

zambonir 2024-01-22 18:07:11 UTC #1077

There are still so many relievers available. Chapman and Neris and LIam Hendriks and Jakob Junis are the only ones left on the MLBTR Top 50, which had Hendriks going to us for two years, $12 million. And they mention Junis as a Strahm/Lugo type.

After that there is still Stanek and Maton (both most recently with Houson) as well as old friends Robertson and Matt Moore.

Philsmania 2024-01-22 18:23:39 UTC #1078

Phil Maton, our old friend Nick's older brother. For once, we will have had both the lesser and the better brother (although, for the record, we broke that lesser brother trend with the Nolas).

zambonir 2024-01-22 18:39:40 UTC #1079

Phil may have a better career than Nick but at least Nick didn't break his hand punching a locker to miss the playoffs.

Also we never had Ramon Martinez (who was pretty darn good, just still not as good as his brother).

RolenRules 2024-01-22 19:56:00 UTC #1080

LOL my first post was lauding Nick Maton. Last year he cratered, exposing my lack of scouting ability. I hope he rebounds for the Tigers this year.

Philsmania 2024-01-23 00:32:20 UTC #1081

Makes me wonder if Phil has a bonehead streak in him. He missed being a part of the WS-winning Postseason. Butterfly-effecting things, maybe he would have given up a hit in game 4 against us or blown a save either in games 5 or 6.

zambonir 2024-01-23 00:39:36 UTC #1082

Chapman's MO seems to be to take the best $ deal and then get traded.

(Though I guess last year he didn't even get paid.)

Free-agent reliever Aroldis Chapman in agreement with Pirates on a one-year, $10.5M contract, pending physical, source tells @TheAthletic . On it: @francysromeroFR , @Joelsherman1 .
— Ken Rosenthal ( @Ken_Rosenthal ) January 23, 2024

zambonir 2024-01-23 18:46:21 UTC #1083

Pivoting off of the prospects list discussion which projects Miller as our possible 2026 3B, there's been some rumor/clickbait talk of the Phillies trying to negotiate a Bohm extension. I suppose that would make a lot of sense for the team more than Bohm, they could buy out one year of his free agency (four-year deal) which would lower the AAV and keep him tradeable for '26 or '27 if Miller is indeed the next 3B. But it would raise the AAV for this year. From Bohm's perspective he could make more in arbitration but might not be a super-appealing FA by the time he gets there.

zambonir 2024-01-23 20:31:42 UTC #1084

The Phillies announce that they have agreed to terms on a contract for the 2024 season with left-handed pitcher Kolby Allard. Former first round pick who has experience out of the rotation and the bullpen. Spent most of 2023 with Atlanta on IL (left shoulder nerve inflammation).
— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) January 23, 2024

But what kind of contract?

julio 2024-01-23 20:41:46 UTC #1085

A baseball contract.

andyb 2024-01-23 20:41:54 UTC #1086

Non-tendered arbitration eligible. Assume more than the ML minimum but not too much more. Has an option so here is likely your 6th or 7th starter in AAA until Abel is ready.

Of course he has never ever gotten major league hitters out at an effective rate. Can't have everything in a cheap signing.

zambonir 2024-01-23 20:59:53 UTC #1087

Probably a split contract with higher pay at both levels then. Option certainly matters, he certainly didn't seem like the big bullpen signing, and maybe not even better than Covey or Nelson.

andyb 2024-01-23 21:35:05 UTC #1088

Split $1 million/$375K. 125K in incentives.

zambonir 2024-01-23 22:14:59 UTC #1089

Well that certainly supports your take on his role too. A nice big amount of money to get stashed in AAA or on the option-seesaw.

Covey only got $850K and I don't think his minor league end was reported (though he'd also have to clear waivers anyway).

When Stubbs settled it was reported that he got $850K and only $400K was guaranteed, I'm guessing that is a similar situation (that if they option him he's going to at least make $400 K for the year, though that also means the Phillies wouldn't be on the hook for more if they released him).

zambonir 2024-01-27 01:35:23 UTC #1090

This seems wildly overstated as far as the role of CLOSER, but no doubt, as the options dwindle, it seems certain they are going to cast their lot with Kerkering as a key piece. But Hoffman is also there. And Soto has literally been a closer. I think the bigger issue is still that they need the 7th (currently Bellati or Brogdon) and 8th (currently Covey) guys to be optionable

Or, as the story says, they are still shopping:

The Phillies were in touch with righty Phil Maton, according to multiple sources, but nothing has materialized. They’ve expressed interest in Jakob Junis, a source said, though the 31-year-old righty would fit more as a multi-inning swingman than a late-game option. It’s likely the Phillies have engaged most other free agents, including Ryne Stanek, Adam Ottavino, Ryan Brasier, and Neris.

Austinfan 2024-01-27 03:06:31 UTC #1091

They have enough RP arms that they're better off going "safety in numbers" by stocking up Lehigh at low cost, saving some cap room for July if needed, and see if someone rises to the top.

Wasting a bunch of limited cap room (they need to constrain spending to avoid losing picks and LA money) on mediocre upgrades is probably a waste - given how variable RPs are, I'd be happy to upgrade over some of the veterans they ha at Lehigh last season and see how the kids develop. If nothing works out, save enough money to fit a RP in a July trade.

andyb 2024-01-27 03:32:36 UTC #1092

They don't have "limited cap room". There are no caps. Penalties are only money until the 3rd tier which they are not close to. They'll get a reliever because their AAA arms are really not that good. Numbers<>quality depth.

zambonir 2024-01-27 03:40:03 UTC #1093

As the article points out, Kimbrel led the team in appearances (71) and saves (23) and was 32% better than league average based on ERA+. Alvarado (health) Seranthony (health and consistency), Hoffman (SSS), Soto (consistency) and Kerkering (youth) are all unproven but also all capable of being great. No sure thing but what reliever is? At this point they have essentially opted out of the top end of the market, but that doesn't mean they still can't sign a guy for $8-12 million (depending on years). Or they could hope that Kenley and a few other guys don't get traded in the off-season and are available in July.

But... there's clearly a lot of focus on trying to have a good April and May and not just treat the first half of the season as a shake-out cruise. If they are serious about that, and also committed to Sanchez and Rojas, another piece couldn't hurt. If they can find another Hoffman (or if Brogdon can at least match Andrew Vasquez for a couple of months), that's fine too.

bkeich 2024-01-27 15:15:33 UTC #1094

Is this the coldest Hot Stove we have had in years? We literally have not added a single “likely to be a big part of the team” guy yet and pitchers and catchers report in a few weeks. I am guessing there will be a few bench players and a couple fungible bargain relievers and maybe a 6th-8th start type before April, but when have we had this quiet of an offseason.

Our discussions aren’t even really about signing players as much as other times.