Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[andyb]

We still seem to be in on the Stephenson market:

As the Josh Hader talks pick up with Houston, per @Ken_Rosenthal and @Chandler_Rome , the market is moving forward for Robert Stephenson, the top available righty reliever.

The Mets, Dodgers, and Phillies are among the clubs with interest in Stephenson. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi ( @jonmorosi ) January 19, 2024

[zambonir]

I guess we'll see. Apparently the Phillies were pretty seriously interested in Hicks and just couldn't compete with the Giants in terms of the starting opportunity. But they were probably prepared to give him 2-3 years at last.

Hard to see us outbidding those other two teams if Hader's off the market though hard to see the Mets making the top bid. They could maybe offer more years. Of course the Phillies are always happy to lengthen a contract once they know it's not gonna be a one-year thing.

[Austinfan]

I'd think Phillips, Podkul and Kroon will get a lot of PT.

Phillips missed two years to injuries, including TJ, so they'll want to see if he's taken another step up further from injury. He has the full repertoire for a starter, probably needs for velo to get above 92 on average to be considered a 6th starter candidate.

Podkul and Kroon missed a lot of PT but showed hit tools last year, will get to compete for utility roles.

[zambonir]

Cross another one off the list. Three years, $33 million.

Angels Sign Robert Stephenson To Three-Year Contract

[andyb]

Rumor is Hector wants 3/50. He is probably not going to get that (and there are small signs of decline), but I bet he gets something in the ballpark (2/30, 3/40). He deserves the reward for his year to year reliability even if the team is taking on risk at his age.

Guessing the Phillies would prefer to keep in the $8-$10 million AAV range. They do have some minor league depth, but don't think they trust Bellatti and Brogdon that much. They might also want length (i.e. a better version of Covey).

And of course Stephenson does not sign with any of the 3 teams Morosi listed. One gets the feeling that writers just link any relatively expensive free agent to the big market teams by default. AI could write those tweets.

[zambonir]

Yeah I'm sure they will still sign someone on a one-year deal, and/or bring in someone on a minor league deal with a highish major league salary if they make it.

But you never know, we could also see a trade like last year.

They really need Soto to be someone who can get RHP out if they don't add anyone, along with Kerkering being ready. But they certainly do have enough arms currently, especially if one of Brogdon or Bellatti can bounce back.

Alvarado
Seranthony
Hoffman
Strahm
Kerkering
Soto
TBD (Bellati, Brogdon, Yunior Marte, Michael Mercado)
Covey

That's a good enough bullpen for almost any team in any era, it's just that the current era puts a higher premium on a 6th inning guy, which used to be an incredibly fungible spot (along with the long/mop-up guy).

But they could also really stand to have that last or second-to-last spot be an optionable arm. Signing another vet would make that harder too (though obviously Covey is still not sure to make it).

The social media rumor business is dumb for sure, but Morosi did not predict any of those three teams would sign, and merely said they were "among" the clubs with interest. There's really no way to ever be wrong when it's that vague. I'm sure the Phillies had "interest" in Hader too. Just not serious interest or actual discussions.

[Austinfan]

They also have a bunch of young arms, and odds are a couple will take a step up (and a few a step down).
They seem to be pretty good at identifying college pitchers who are good converts to a bullpen role.
It's not like they're looking for a late inning guy (though Kerkering has that potential), just more depth for the middle innings.

[zambonir]

Well I think there's an argument for a late inning guy to replace Kimbrel, even if they don't need a capital-C Closer. Kerkering may not be ready, Seranthony may not be fixed, Alvarado is injury-prone, Soto was a closer in name only and promoting Hoffman to increasingly higher-leverage spots could be a formula for failure (in addition to the fact that he's good with men on base and over two innings, as is Strahm).

I think another Strahm or Hoffman type is what they probably want most. Versatile, primarily for middle innings, but trusted enough to take an 8th or 9th too. If they really did engage with Hicks and Stephenson, they are likely going to still land someone.

In theory they can afford to let it shake out and wait until the deadline, but that could cost you a couple of games in the standings early (if the goal is to at least try and win the dang division) and also cost you talent rather than money in July.

[andyb]

They also have a bunch of young arms, and odds are a couple will take a step up (and a few a step down).

They really don't have much high minor relief depth. I know Kerkering came from the low minors quickly and McGarry could do the same in a reliever conversion, but there is really NOT that much in AAA and AA. Marte and Moore are not reliable and could easily top out as AAAA arms. Phillips is likely a AAA arm at best. Pipkin and Baker are good arms in AA with little track record of any success. Michael Mercado might have a step up in him but he is a 4.50-5.00 ERA pitcher pretty much every year in the minors so not counting on him.

You tend to confuse numbers with quality. There is every reason for the Phillies to go out and get another major league reliever. It frankly might be good for Kerkering to spend a few months at AAA learning how to close and refining his non-sweeper pitches which the Phillies were scared to use last year.

[zambonir]

Kerkering could easily end up being the optionable arm, maybe not on the see-saw, but up and down a couple of times. Though it was rather interesting that they simultaneously brought him north for off-season promotional work at the same time they (and he) said nothing's guaranteed.

$4 million (plus a $1.5 million buyout on a $6 million option) get you this guy. I think the Phillies will find their guy in the $6-9 million two-three year range (or $10-12 if it's one year).

White Sox Sign John Brebbia

[zambonir]

Pretty good summary here (playing off of Thomson's comments this past week) but it all becomes moot if they do an add an arm.

Gregory Soto, Connor Brogdon key figures in 2024 as Phillies try to replace...

[Austinfan]

Phillips is a sixth starter candidate, I think they'd prefer he pitch every 5 days in Lehigh than out of the pen.

Marte, Moore, McGowan, McGarry all have the velo to make a quick jump if they fix command issues.
McKay is more a "stuff" guy than a fireballer.
McCollum, Hernandez, Baker, Martinez, Mercadoe, Pipkin and Neuborn will probably start the season in Reading.

Thing with RPs is they can advance quickly if the light goes on, all you need is a 95+ FB with some movement and one plus secondary pitch (slider, splitter, changeup). Starters take longer b/c they need to master at least three pitches and be able to get guys out with their "average" FB (you can pump it up for one inning, not six).

Brogdon is a salvage job, he showed he's a solid RP when the changeup is working.
Nelson flashed enough to fit a bottom of the bullpen role,

[andyb]

Phillips is a sixth starter candidate, I think they'd prefer he pitch every 5 days in Lehigh than out of the pen.

What in his performance suggests that? Hasn't had an ERA under 4 since A ball in 2019. He is more the 10th starter candidate at this point. As I said, numbers do not equal quality. Just assuming that somebody surfaces from a pile of mediocrity is just not a strategy.

The fact is we don't have a lot of upper minors depth outside of the 40 other than Abel and maybe McGarry and those 2 have big questions to answer also.

[zambonir]

Dombrowski has made it pretty clear he'd like to sign a starter (maybe more than one) to a minor league deal, just a question of whether it will be someone who's actually better than Nick Nelson (or Covey), and/or if it's someone who could take over that kind of relief role in MLB too.

Still tons of guys out there, relievers too.

Would be nice if Abel forces his way onto the 40 (even for a spot start) eventually. Not sure I'm buying the "we still think he's a starter" take on McGarry.

[andyb]

McGarry is still the Kerkering-like wild card in 2024. I have no idea if simplifying his repertoire in relief will help his control much. His failure is not his stuff as a starter it is his inability to throw strikes. If there is an upside bullpen arm in the minors though it is probably him and at least the starter experience would make him a credible 2-inning reliever.

[zambonir]

He was also the Kerkering-like wild card in 2022!

[andyb]

Then it was the Seranthony-like wild card. 98 and command tends to get one promoted pretty quickly.

[zambonir]

Wasn't Andrew Baker in there somewhere too?

[andyb]

Baker was bad enough last year that one wonders if he can ever put it together. Stuff is there obviously. Just might have to rebuild his motion to make it more repeatable. I think sustained success on the order of deciding whether he is 40-man roster worth next winter is the priority for him. Odds are probably less than 10% for him putting it together enough this season to make the majors.

[zambonir]

Yeah I'm not saying he is there anymore. But he was that guy at the start of last year's spring training (and pitched great in the first game).