Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Well, the deadline has passed. I can't imagine the Phillies intend to refuse negotiations (i.e. "file and trial") though you could certainly make a case against Soto. (I mean, you could make one against Bohm too, but I don't think you'd be able to win with that versus just his offense.)

I could still see a scenario where Sosa ultimately isn't on the team. Soto too.

[zambonir]

The Phillies reached 2024 salary agreements with 3 arbitration-eligible players today to avoid arb, according to multiple reports:

- Ranger Suárez, $5.05 million
- Jeff Hoffman, $2.2 million
- Edmundo Sosa, $1.7 million

Earlier this offseason, the Phils avoided arb by reaching…

— John Foley ( @2008Philz ) January 11, 2024

[andyb]

Sosa right at the projection. Agree that Soto could be the one where the Phillies try to lowball him on performance. Bohm is tricky because he has decent counting numbers even if the defense keeps contributing to below average WAR.

[zambonir]

Not just performance, but role. "Detroit paid you like a closer, you made the all-star team because you were a closer and they stunk, you're still a solid relief pitcher with some flaws and just deserve the modest service time bump and nothing else."

No question, I would not try to defend a lowball offer to Bohm (though I'm sure they made one!) against his RBIs and RISP and BA and 20 homers. I don't think arbitrators are super into defensive stats (WAR included).

And tbh, the fact that he's become a beloved player should count for something. Not to the arbitrator, but the Phillies are the ones who should give a little if they keep negotiating.

[zambonir]

Soto apparently got done too. Reportedly $5 million. Team tweeted it (without a number).

[bkox]

Passan tweets that Bohm wants $4M and the team offered $3.4M

[julio]

Passan tweets that Bohm wants $4M and the team offered $3.4M

Close enough that I would think they'll find some way to settle.

[zambonir]

But also so close that you wonder why they didn't already, or why the team can't just give him the money. Obviously the $3.7 figure is just sitting there, you'd think they could make it $3.8 and be done with it. The Phillies don't generally seem to go to trial much these days.

[zambonir]

Gelb basically says that the Phillies still expect that, eventually, a lower-level free agent starting pitcher will realize that he can probably beat out Dylan Covey (or that Covey won't even survive spring training given his lack of options) for a 6th starter spot. Also says some of the guys they've offered a swingman type job to are still trying to find situations where they are guaranteed more starts (rather being a reliever most of the time).

Nothing really new on the outfield situation. Suarez and Hoffman mentioned as possible extension candidates.

Phillies notes: Pitching depth the priority, adding an outfielder, extension...

[andyb]

It really feels that most teams like the Phillies want a de facto 6-man rotation. In practice though this is 5 starters getting 5 days rest most of the time and that requires maybe a dozen 6th starter/bullpen games for the weeks where there are no off days.

Teams need more than 5 starters to cover injuries, but the roster need is really somebody like Covey who can give you 3-4 innings in a bullpen game and be a credible reliever at other times. Ideally that somebody is better than Covey of course.

[gmwannabe]

The Phils are paying Sot more than they are offering Bohm! I understand the system, but isn't that a kick in the pants. I don't really understand the WARs, Vorps etc. but hasn't Bohm been the best hitter with runners in scoring position the last 2 years? Not sure
gm

[zambonir]

I wonder if Lorenzen is someone they have actually engaged with, or if neither side is interested after it all went kind of bad.

But that seems to be what they want more than anything - someone like him or Strahm. Not necessarily a 3-4 inning/mop-up guy but an actual good middle reliever who can go two innings, or even get a couple of key late-game outs if necessary, while also toggling to starting.

The classic mop-up/long reliever spot is better given to guys with options, but they are rather short on those at the moment.

Of course they could also just sign a higher-end reliever and ask Strahm to embrace the hybrid role. Heck, offer him a revised contract with some incentives for games started, maybe even tack on a year.

GM, yeah, like you say, the system. He is indeed good with RISP but that also already shows up in his RBIs and BA. Even if he was an All-Star and perfect fielder he probably wouldn't get more than Soto. He only made $748,000 last year so the raise is still considerable. Still a dumb system.

[zambonir]

It's actually more crazy that Suarez and Soto make the same amount of money.

[fish]

I wonder if Lorenzen is someone they have actually engaged with, or if neither side is interested after it all went kind of bad.

I'm sure his lack of stuff turned them off when it didn't go well. Certainly he didn't show enough to think he'll improve and be worth giving him 8 million a year (or whatever it's going to take) to sign him.

[zambonir]

I mean, that's still probably a fair price for a 5th starter (which is why you're better off having your fifth starter be a pre-arbitration player like Sanchez). And also a fair price for the relief pitcher he used to be. But if he's just a 6th starter, or a mediocre reliever, not so much. It seems entirely possible to me that with an off-season of rest (never mind the no-hitter, he arrived with a lot of use on him already) and a focus on the bullpen role both of his stuff and his arsenal will be much better. But yeah, I reckon some team still gives him that $8 million (maybe more on a one-year deal) just to be their 4th or 5th starter.

Meanwhile Heyman says the Phillies are in on Robert Stevenson and interested in Hicks too. Usual grain of salt. .

[fish]

Meanwhile Heyman says the Phillies are in on Robert Stevenson

Stephenson and Kerkering pretty much have the same stuff (Kerkering's slider I think being a touch better though Stephenson keeps the quality of his slider more consistently)- so whatever Stephenson has figured out is what Kerkering needs to figure out. Who better to learn from?!

[zambonir]

It's Heyman though, so feels like agents feeding him to drive up the market as usual. MLBTR predicted he'd get a four-year $36 million deal (and Hicks four years $40 million), just don't know that the Phillies are really interested in that.

[zambonir]

Good profile (for which he declined to be interviewed). It's too bad the Inquirer doesn't have gift links like the NYT and WSJ and Post. But I assume all the Phillies blogs will aggregate it.

Meet the young executive trying to make the Phillies into an analytics leader

One thing that stood out, it says he works with Cotham more than anyone else in the organization (but that he works with all the coaches). The other main takeaway is just that he is apparently a genial and collaborative personality, whereas it seems like in the Klentak era they were still playing out the cliched scenes from Moneyball (all the data guys on one side and the scout types on the other).

[zambonir]

Scott Kingery is back, baby!

(Not quite time for a ST thread I don't think. And they haven't officially announced the report date for a countdown, though that's probably coming today or tomorrow too.)

https://twitter.com/Phillies/status/1748021006403350855

[zambonir]

Inquirer says first pitchers and catchers workout is February 14; USA Today also lists that as the reporting date (which probably means most show up on the 13th for their check-in and physicals).

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/01/17/mlb-spring-training-schedule-pitchers-catchers-report-2024/72258181007/