Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

That sounds right to me. Though I think the reliever will be the largest contract (if it's a free agent). Not a closer but not "middle reliever" in the old sense.

[Squire]

Phillies signed 26 year old LHP Lachlan Wells most recently of Adelaide in the ABL

https://www.milb.com/player/lachlan-wells-649143

[Callison]

A clear upgrade over Caves, Castro,

The Phils bench is a weakness. These two guys in particular didn't hit. Of all the Phils prospects, Cave looked most promising with his glowing AAA stats, but never produced consistently in the bigs. God knows what;s wrong with him that Long can't fix. He got PLENTY of chances, too. Maybe Smoltz' sports shrink is available. Cave has nothing to prove at AAA.

The Phils bench can be a lot stronger just shopping in the bargain basement.

[zambonir]

I think much is not actually set yet. Castro is certainly not going to be in MLB, he's depth, and if that supposed RH power shows itself, great, but nothing they're counting on.

The Phillies may be in option hell in 2024 – Phillies Nation

Reading that, my predictions:

Pache: traded if Rojas is the starting CF
Cave: DFA'ed if Rojas is the starting CF, might make the team if not (then again if Marsh is the starting CF they definitely need a bigger bat in LF). He also might clear waivers.
Covey: He might make the team as the long man but is bound to get DFA'ed eventually
Stubbs: has options if they bring in veteran competition (they missed their shot at Austin Nola) or let Marche have a chance
Bellatti: Would be great if he shows enough to make the major league roster but can't really give spots to both him and Covey (assuming they still sign another reliever and don't trade or DFA anyone else)

There are still a ton of bench bats out there, I imagine we'll see one guy on a major league deal and at least one guy on a minor league deal with opt-outs in addition to Cave, Weston Wilson, Kody Clemens.

I would still consider trading Sosa if he has any modest value. Castro actually would be adequate if he was the sole light-hitting middle IF type (not a great SS I assume but Sosa never plays there either).

[phillychuck]

I think Weston Wilson has enough offensive firepower to help, at least over 100-150 ABs or so. It's too bead he really isn't an OF. Ideal trade would be Wilson for an equivalently competent offensive RH OF.

[zambonir]

Maybe, but that seemed like, 1000% true of Jake Cave last year (both in spring training and AAA) too. And of Castro (purely as a hitter of LHP) for that matter.

Wilson actually has options (two, in fact) so no need to trade him (if Bohm were to get hurt for instance, give him a look at 3B instead of just playing Sosa), and by all means let him try to win a spot even if the roster's tight.

But they could trade Pache for a bigger RHB or Cave for an equivalent RHB.

[bkox]

From Todd Zolecki's email today about outfielders

If an opportunity presents itself, yes, the Phillies will act on it. But the plan is to have Nick Castellanos in right field, Brandon Marsh in left and Rojas in center, an alignment that worked well late in the 2023 regular season. The Phillies believe it can work again -- if Rojas hits. Rojas posted 2.5 WAR in only 59 games as a rookie, which tied for seventh on the team with Taijuan Walker.

But the team’s belief that Rojas can produce enough offensively, while knowing he will be one of the game’s truly elite center fielders, explains why they are not planning to acquire a prototypical fourth outfielder before Spring Training.

A prototypical fourth outfielder is almost certainly a veteran, and any veteran is going to want a certain number of plate appearances. Those plate appearances will not exist if Castellanos, Marsh and Rojas play as much as the Phillies hope they’ll play. (They seem to figure that Cristian Pache and Jake Cave can pick up the remaining at-bats.)

But desperate times call for desperate measures. If a veteran outfielder is lingering on the market as Spring Training approaches, perhaps they might come to Philly without expectations. And that is why Dombrowski has said the Phillies will continue to keep an open mind.

[Austinfan]

Always a few guys who fall out of starter status but have enough in the tank for part-time/platoon role.
And when the game of musical chairs is up (teams have blown through their budgets) salary demands plummet.
At that point, the potential for post-season play may outweigh a few hundred K.

[zambonir]

Funny, this guy still predicts Rojas starts in AAA.

Why do we keep overlooking Cristian Pache in the outfield?

I do think if Rojas is indeed the starting CF they need an upgrade over Cave or Pache (if not both). And if he's not they'll definitely have to add someone.

I don't think finding ABs for a 4th OF is a problem either, should they find the right fit. If they sit Rojas or Pache against some RHP and continue to sit Marsh against some LHP those ABs will add up fast. And if they don't there's still gonna be some veterans worth looking at on the next tier. It's just not guaranteed those "names" would actually be better than Cave or Pache.

[andyb]

The desire to add a right-handed bat to the outfield is a hedge against Rojas and Pache. I never thought Cave was good enough for us to only look at right-handed OFs, but that seems the direction we are leaning in.

[zambonir]

Don't forget Muzziotti!

I think the need is slightly different depending on Rojas. If he's the CF Marsh is your primary LF and Cave is probably adequate, but you should have more of a bat than Pache off the bench.

If Rojas is not the CF Marsh is going to play CF a lot more, and they could really use an upgrade on Cave as well as a bigger RHB for LF (with Pache still here too). Even if it's someone who can't field.

Bowden keeps beating the drum for Merrifield but what they actually need is a LH Merrifield who can play 3B and LF. He's not really that big of an upgrade over Pache otherwise, save for his ability to play 2B, which he almost never would (any more than Harrison did).

[andyb]

Or a Merrifield that is not likely past his prime. I wonder if he is Bowden's obsession more than the Phillies'. I am much more into a power bat if they get an OF because we already have 3 guys that can play CF.

[zambonir]

I feel like they could still surprise and get someone like Duval or Pham or Rosario. And if not, they could still pick up a one-dimensional bat with the idea that Pache would play the last three innings and Rojas would be moving up eventually. It's just hard when you can never-ever put that guy at 1B or DH, and of course the RF isn't good defensively either.

But there's no lack of available players, and if they aren't chasing a starting pitcher (the new rumor/speculation is that they'd look at Stroman) or $10 million relief arm, they have $ too.

[zambonir]

The Phillies' Next Steps

MLBTR really doesn't care for Alec Bohm (one of their suggested big moves here is to make Bohm a bench player - even including LF, lol - and upgrade 3B. Which I get, but surely isn't gonna happen).

Names they mention for bullpen and OF otherwise:

If the Phils are comfortable making a long-term move, they could look to righties Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson. But Dombrowski has erred toward short-term additions in recent offseasons, signing Matt Strahm (two years, $15MM), Kimbrel (one year, $10MM) and Corey Knebel (one year, $10MM). If he follows a similar path, names like Aroldis Chapman, Ryne Stanek and old friends Hector Neris and Michael Fulmer could be in play.

There’s no shortage of free agents who could fill a part-time corner role. Candidates for that type of job include Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk and switch-hitters Aaron Hicks, and Robbie Grossman. If the Phils are content to push Marsh and Rojas into a platoon to open the season, they could look to Adam Duvall or versatile Whit Merrifield to hold down a more regular role in left.

A few fringe starting pitchers mentioned too.

[Jazzhead]

And that part-time corner role could just as easily be filled by Schwarber or even Hoskins, especially if Rojas with his range is in CF. That could free up at bats at DH or 1B for someone like - Rhys Hoskins?

I know, I know, hittin' the jug a bit early in the morning.

[zambonir]

I think they want to keep Schwarber out of left field for his own good (physically), not just because he's also terrible there. I think you're more likely to see them signing another bad fielder (like Joey Gallo or Joc Pederson) if they actually did want a LHB and thump instead of a RHB and more fielding ability.

What _are you drinking? Rhys isn't coming back. He's getting a better deal than the Phillies are going to give any position player at this point. And while I still don't entirely understand why he couldn't play LF given how bad both Schwarber and Castellanos (even if Nick did improve from worst to just bad) are at defense, can't imagine he will, for anyone.

The move that was always there was to put Bryce back in RF and Nick in LF part-time, with some DH work too. Then keep Rhys. But that ship sailed. Plus, Bryce probably isn't much of an OF anymore either. And turning Nick into a 400 AB player isn't going to happen this year (unless he stinks at the plate like he did in 2022, in which case you may as well play Pache or Rojas).

[Philsmania]

I agree that signing relievers short-term is the way to go. Aside from the truly elite ones, relievers are so gosh-darned unpredictable. If a one-year signing works out, great. If not, you cut him with no long-term consequences.

Kimbrel was a good signing, until he ran out of gas in the NLCS which, fairly or not, will be what he will be most remembered for in Philadelphia.

[zambonir]

It just depends on the reliever and the structure really.

Strahm was a good signing for two years $15 million.

Alvarado is now making $9 million each of the next two seasons (with a team option for another at the same price) after getting just $3.45 last year. There's a good chance he'll disappoint in one of those seasons but probably not so much that they would have wanted to not have him (and they'll likely pick up the option unless he collapses or has surgery).

Seranthony's at $4.25 (less than Soto is gonna get) and would get $8 million next year (also a team option).

So for someone like Neris (let's ignore the baggage) would you rather give him $11 million for one year (he walked away from $8.5 in Houston, with a $1 million buyout) or $15-18 million for two? Depends if other teams are also offering the latter I guess. And the Phillies don't need him as badly (if they are sure they can count on Hoffman and Kerkering).

[zambonir]

Phillies locked up Hoffman ($2.2M) and Suarez ($5.05 M) today. Soto, Sosa and Bohm still to come (one way or another).

2024 Arbitration Tracker

[andyb]

Both a little above the predictions ($4.7 for Suarez and $2.1 for Hoffman). Suarez does seem to deserve more with his track record.