Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[allentown]

I think he's a lot more valuable than Castellanos. Partly, he fills a need for the Phillies, where Castellanos does not.

[zambonir]

Well of course he is. Probably a better hitter too, though it's not like Nick was bad last season.

But I would say Nick does fill a need. The only question is, can he actually continue to do so?

JT being a more productive bat helped compensate for Nick's poor 2022, and could have done the same for Rhys's absence and Turner's awful start too.

I just worry that the 2024 offense is built on a lot of best-case-scenarios. Some of which are realistic, but some of which might be out of reach. The team is going to be very focused on not starting poorly so I hope the likes of JT, Nick, Bohm and Marsh (and Turner for that matter) can hit right out of the gate. Or they can win with pitching of course.

[allentown]

Whwn a team has been a slower starter, as the Phillies have multiple times in recent years, I think the first place to look is at how ST is conducted.

[zambonir]

Well, they have said they are looking at it. But I don't know if that's really it. There's no magic bullet for training. I think it's more random and granular (including injuries - especially last year - and new players adjusting, and also the World Baseball Classic).

And it's still probably more important to play well in the second half (though both the 2023 Rangers and 2022 Phillies also say it doesn't matter how you play in September).

But if they want to actually have at least the pretense of hanging with the Braves instead of counting on success as a short-series team, it would help to start better. Though, they weren't actually that bad last year in April. May is what killed them.

[zambonir]

MLB starting rotation rankings right now
(according to FanGraphs):

#1 - @Braves
#2 - @Phillies
#3 - @Dodgers
#4 - @Marlins
#5 - @Reds
#6 - @BlueJays
#7 - @Mariners
#8 - @astros
#9 - @Twins

— Codify ( @CodifyBaseball ) January 3, 2024

Link via PHLY

Will the Phillies Sign Another Starting Pitcher? - PHLY Sports

[Austinfan]

They have Schram as a #6 starter, he's shown he can fill that role, at least for a couple months.
Abel and McGarry will start the season in Lehigh, along with McGowan, Schultze, Moore, McKay and maybe Baker, Martinez and Pipkin in the bullpen.
Veteran arms like Brogdon, Bellati, Nelson, etc.

So it's hard to imagine spending on an arm who isn't a significant upgrade over Ranger and Sanchez, and I doubt they would want to lose draft picks in such a deal.
More likely are more veteran arms looking for a comeback opportunity to fill out the Lehigh roster and buy time for young arms to start in Reading and work their way up, and hope to get lucky.

[zambonir]

I assume you mean Strahm, and that was only done as an emergency move because neither Sanchez nor Nelson were available at the time. Right now Dylan Covey is our #6 starter. And Strahm is too important in the pen.

Bullpen-wise Bellatti and Brogdon either make the MLB team or they're gone. And Covey as well.

But no, they are not going to sign any of the top remaining FA pitchers unless one of them becomes so unexpectedly affordable that they can't resist.

But Snell's the only one left who costs picks anyway (Gray already signed, Nola was the other).

[andyb]

I think it is pretty likely we'll bring in a AAAA starter or two for Lehigh Valley. While it would be nice if Abel or even McGarry stepped forward, we can't count on that. Having a couple of extra arms that can give you 5 innings in an emergency is something that is needed. We really have little room for error if we are counting on Sanchez to be in the rotation and Strahm to be a key middle inning relief arm.

[zambonir]

Like Dombrowski said:

“I’ve got a list of names and all that, and I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to add more, but right now, we’re not going to have much success in that regard. Eventually, once they get done with [pursuing] the promised spot in the rotation with another club, they can start looking and say, ‘Hey, maybe they don’t have a lot of depth over there. Maybe that’s an opportunity to go to triple A and be in that spot.’“

Aaron Nola and then ...? What’s next for the Phillies as the offseason enters...

I think there will be some guys that are at least bigger names (if not guaranteed better pitchers) than your Covey/Nelson/Drew Hutchison types.

[Callison]

The Phils' published-rumors business has evolved to where it's actually always been: everybody is wondering.

Of all the ways for the Phils to improve, the fastest improvement might be to make a hitter out of Rojas and it's real encouraging to see Rojas face his problems and start working with Long right away. Long raised Stott and Marsh a level, so there's room to think he might raise Rojas

Wonder what Castellanos is thinking about his hitting these days? Would be nice to see him as motivated as Rojas.

Would the Phils have the best rotation in MLB if they sign Snell? Seems like the teams that really want him are waiting for each other to start the bidding, thinking the opener won't win it. With the shiny CY, Snell will be calling the shots. The Giants are desperate to sign some talent and I'd expect them to be the biggest financial competition. OTOH, the Phils are playoff ready and in Philly Snell might create the best rotation in MLB.

[phillychuck]

I think expecting Snell to repeat his success is a bad bet. His ERA was 1.50 below his advanced, adjusted ERAs (FIP, ERA+, etc.) Good luck, Giants. Snell is likely to decline dramatically in 2024.

[Austinfan]

Beware of FAs coming off peak seasons in contract years, regression to the mean should be expected (unless they're 25 or under, even then, continued performance is not guaranteed) - but the player expects to be paid based on that one season, and for teams to ignore his career history.

[zambonir]

If my team needed a #1-2 starter, could spare the draft picks and still had a ton of CBT $ to play with I'd consider Snell. But none of those things apply to the Phillies.

If there really is some crazy scenario where they replace Sanchez or trade Walker in order to sign a free agent I still don't give up the QO compensation for that particular pitcher even without any questions about his performance going forward.

I think we can take Dombrowski's comments at face value on this one, at least with free agents. The five guys are set and he'll look for a few depth pieces once they are unable to land a guaranteed rotation spot anywhere.

Trades might be another story. It makes more sense for the Phillies to pick up a higher-end starter on the deadline market should injury or performance reveal the rotation isn't strong enough. But I'm sure he will find out what teams are asking for Burnes, Cease etc. now as well. As ever the issue remains that the Phillies can barely afford to trade any prospects either (at least not from pitching).

[andyb]

Beware of FAs coming off peak seasons in contract years, regression to the mean should be expected (unless they're 25 or under, even then, continued performance is not guaranteed) - but the player expects to be paid based on that one season, and for teams to ignore his career history.

Zach Wheeler? Clearly each free agent decision should be made on the individual merits. Sometimes underperforming players that finally get healthy and have a good year or two can be really good free agent signings.

[Austinfan]

Wheeler was coming off two solid seasons, but had never reached the level his raw talented suggested he could.
Averaged 4.4 WAR those two seasons, 4.8 in 4 seasons as a Philly.
So this was more buying a guy off his predictable sustainable performance, with injury downside and raw stuff upside..

[andyb]

Blake Snell has had 8.1 bWAR the past 2 years while Wheeler had 6.9 his last 2 NY seasons. What is your point again? I don't discount that there were reasons that Wheeler could have been a better signing than his record indicated. But you would have to be foolish to say that possibility does not exist with Snell too.

[phillychuck]

To be fair, Andy, Snell has a lot more red flags than Wheeler did when we signed him. He's coming off of a career year (almost always followed by regression), his advanced stats are pedestrian, and he's 31 years old (Wheeler was 29). Wheeler's advanced stats were actually better than his ERA-performance when we signed him.

[andyb]

Snell had another 180 inning 21-5 season early in his career (a 7.1 WAR season) so he was really coming off his second top year. He probably has a few more durability concerns, but Wheeler to be honest also had major durability concerns. We took a chance that he could be better than he was previously both performance and healthwise.

Every player is different, but the comparison is not that different. Snell at this time is a bit less durable than Wheeler was but has also shown a higher level of performance. Age difference is only one year also, not too (age 30 vs 31 season upcoming). We now know that Wheeler had a higher gear performance-wise. We already know that of Snell. He really has not had bad performance years, just injury affected years. Opinions on Wheeler are now colored by the 4 years he had after free agency which have been stellar. We just did not know that at the time.

[zambonir]

The comparison we'll be making over the next 3-4 years is not Snell vs. Wheeler, but Snell vs. Nola.

I don't think anyone would rather have Snell instead of Wheeler, which is essentially what would happen (after having both for just one season) if they were really in on him.

I think the Dombrowski surprise may yet come, but in the form of a trade, or a position player who is left dying on the free agent vine and comes more cheaply than expected (whether that means a discount on someone a bit higher end or a vet making Josh Harrison money - but god help us, who can still play).

[Austinfan]

I think they'll add low cost pitching depth, AAA starters with opt outs, middle relievers.
One signing of a RH utility type to add depth and insurance against injury. A clear upgrade over Caves, Castro, etc.