Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[David_Criss]

Marsch, Pache and Rojas are all glove first outfielders with good speed, too. I'll take that gamble that they can get a couple decent to good bats out of that trio.

[phillychuck]

Marsh is a below-average CF by advanced stats, but a good glove in the corners.

[zambonir]

Marsh was the Phillies' second-best hitter last season by both OPS and OPS +, albeit in just 400 ABs. That may not be sustainable either with more ABs (especially against LHP) or a higher position in the order but he's certainly not "glove-first." And we can only hope the RF, 3B and 2B hit better than him this year (I'll give Turner a pass since he clearly did once he got going).

[allentown]

The coaches are working on changes which they think will give Rojas more time determine what pitch was thrown before he swings, mainly cutting down the noise in his pre-swing set, but more was mentioned. Also working on strength.

Ideally, the Phillies have Marsh in an OF corner and Rojas in CF. That may be enough to compensate for Castellanos.

[DurhamBull]

@rkeden I like the optimism in your post. IMO Rojas doesn’t need to add bulk/strength/power. If he can hit .280+, be a base stealing pest, and play elite defense (he’s nearly there already), that’s enough and it plays to his strengths. I’d rather see him become a superb bunter for cheap singles than occasionally try to swing for the fences which will add to his Ks.

[zambonir]

Ideally, the Phillies have Marsh in an OF corner and Rojas in CF. That may be enough to compensate for Castellanos.

I hope you only mean defensively!

[VoteForKalas]

Marsh is already a decent hitter who had a better season offensively than I expected.

However, LF still needs a player with more power, not just HR; hitting 2B consistently along with some pop s fine with me.

I'm not sure Marsh can become that guy which is why I was calling for bringing in another player, but maybe a platoon could work as well with a RH option and Marsh.

We'll see what the Phillies do with LF and if they instead shift Marsh to CF while Rojas continues to develop in AAA. That is not what I'd want to see happen, but the Phillies may disagree.

[zambonir]

All the parts just fit together kind of badly. I'd be all for turning Castellanos into a 400 AB player (or 500 if you start sitting Schwarber against LHP) who shares LF with Marsh (while Marsh also shares CF with Rojas) but that's probably not going to happen. If you did do that you could also put Harper back in RF and, oh, I dunno, sign a power-hitting 1B?

I'm not sure it matters if Marsh doesn't fit the typical power profile position of a LF though. TBH Bohm still isn't productive or powerful enough for a 3B either, and Stott is still a work-in-progress/glove-first player (9th of 9 in OPS+, behind Rojas even).

The Phillies offense is still constructed around the idea that they get unusual offense from SS and C (let's hope both still happen at least for one year in JT's case) and elite offense from Kyle and Nick (which they don't, though Schwarb's is still close and should be fine now that he won't play the field). Right now it seems like they're gonna ride with what they have but that could still change (and if not now, at the deadline, and if not then, next year, because there's still no big bat coming on the farm).

[phillychuck]

because there's still no big bat coming on the farm).

Carlos de la Cruz and Ethan Wilson beg to differ. But they're not begging very loudly.

[allentown]

Yeah, defensively. Casatellanos is a bad signing which we are just going to have to live with offensively. I still don't understand how DD thought it such a great coup to land both Castellanos and Schwarber on $100 million contracts. It made no sense at the time and it makes no sense today, but we are locked in financially.

[zambonir]

Schwarber was only 80 79, even!

But yes, the Nick signing was sold as, "well, he's still available, let's go get him," in the same way as Arrieta, but there was no accompanying late-off-season bargain in Nick's case, particularly the years. That's on Dombrowski because Nick was a guy he developed and he just loved him. And if he drops off (or should I say, back to where he was in 2022) he's a negative WAR player going forward.

That said they were both also sold as David Bell type signings and unlike Bell, they did seem to have an affect on the personality of the team, in a way that Harper and Hoskins and Nola never quite had, with tangible (if merely correlative) results.

[Austinfan]

Rojas needs to add strength, not HR strength but gap strength, enough to pile up the xBHs and a few HRs to keep pitchers honest. So we're not talking a Mr. Atlas makeover, just incremental improvement. If he becomes more selective, learns to bunt consistently, and can drive balls into the gaps he'll put up impressive offensive stats.

Marsh is fine, he's turning 26, entering his peak years, getting consistent ABs, give me a plus fielding LF with a .800+ OPS and I'll live with "only" 20 HRs a year! Long must have figured something out with his swing, he made two changes, learned to hit FBs and cut his O-swings from 33.7% to 28.2%, Nick, see what laying off pitches you can't hit can do for you?

JT 1.5 WAR, Schwarber 1.4 WAR, Castellanos 1.0 WAR - that's a lot of money for mediocrity.
Right now two are placeholders for Crawford et al, but a young starting catcher should be an organizational priority for 2026.

[zambonir]

JT 1.5 WAR, Schwarber 1.4 WAR, Castellanos 1.0 WAR - that's a lot of money for mediocrity.

JT's BBRef WAR was 3.6. He'll probably bounce back, and still provide great value for the life of the contract even if the fifth year isn't great either. That was to be expected.

Schwarber should be better this year as just a DH too. While I never liked the signings, both players were greatly affected by Harper's injuries. They were supposed to split LF and DH, not both be everyday outfielders.

The Phillies will almost certainly sign or trade for another corner OF before Crawford, who may not even be a corner OF, arrives. The only question is what they might do with Nick in the meantime if he isn't any better this year.

[andyb]

Marsh was the Phillies' second-best hitter last season by both OPS and OPS +, albeit in just 400 ABs. That may not be sustainable either with more ABs (especially against LHP) or a higher position in the order but he's certainly not "glove-first."

The issue with Marsh is that there are a few reasons his season last year was not sustainable. First, he really did not face tough lefty starters. So we did not answer the platoon risk. Second, his BABIP was .397 which is not sustainable. He should have a relatively high BABIP with his speed, but not that high. His Fangraphs projection may be a little harsh (247/329/401), but it does normalize the luck.

I am not sure what he is even yet. I wish the CF defense was better. In a corner we really want more than a 730 OPS even if it comes with decent defense.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brandon-marsh/20202/stats?position=OF

[phillychuck]

I don't know how much fangraphs adjusts their projections for the "age factor" in terms of projecting forward. If you are statistically combining age 28-32 seasons you expect a drop off or roughly comparable production, but combining age 23-25 yr old seasons I'd expect the 26 year old season to be closer to the 25, not the 23. If Marsh's career is weighted toward last season, I don't know how much to discount the BABIP vs likely improvement prior to age 27.

I'd hope Marsh would normalize around .800 ops in his prime years. Solid LF, not an all-star, even with the glove and speed. I'm fine with that.

[zambonir]

The answer is really still to find a good RHB for LF who is also playable against RHP (so that he can play LF with Marsh in CF some, don't play Rojas every day against RHP).

But that's, y'know, a starter.

I'm sure they are still going to at least bring in someone to compete with Cave and Wilson (or even be handed the bench spot). See how it plays out this year for three months and address at deadline or in off-season if a role player isn't enough.

You can't have both the current version of Nick and the Fangraphs projections version of Marsh as your corner OFs. That's why they'd be a great platoon but obviously Nick's playing time is not going to be that reduced. If Nick's still hitting (it's not like he had a bad season overall) or if Marsh can keep it going, great. If Marsh levels off but he's also facing LHP more often and getting 500-550 ABs, that's okay too, if he's showing improvement.

[andyb]

Fangraphs is mostly eliminating luck factors like BABIP from their projections. Now Marsh did have a better walk rate than their projections so that is something to look for. If his walk rate from last year is repeated, then he is likely a better player than their projections which incorporate previous year walk rates which were nowhere near as good.

I tend to think Marsh is more in the 750-775 OPS range going forward with the drop mainly due to playing full time rather than a cherry-picked platoon set of starts. That is good but not great. Certainly worthy of play in his inexpensive contract years like Bohm. If arbitration gets him closer to $10 million a year he'll need to be better.

[Austinfan]

Watching Marsh, I think there's still room for improvement, he would be patient at times, then get into streaks where he was overaggressive, then settle back into a groove - which is to be expected from a young hitter making adjustments.

With Bohm, I'm less optimistic, with almost 2000 ML PA, he's more set in his ways. Though there's still hope, he's significantly cut his K rate and improved his ISO over his three years in the majors, and a career low BABIP says he might get a little jump from luck. The problem is he's not a disciplined hitter, so he makes too much weak contact on pitches he should lay off - his "hard hit" % has declined all three seasons.

[nycphils]

Yeah JT's defensive decline as outlined in that story is distressing

He is owed $24m this year and next, but a FA after that. Not that distressing - hope he holds up and is solid at least, but MLB catching is so bad and the remaining years short enough that he should be fine even if he is somewhat overpaid at this point.

Moving him elsewhere doesn’t make sense. I just hope the Phillies aren’t crazy enough to resign him for 2025+ when he’ll be 34 even if he has a bounce back year. We have two years to find a successor.

[zambonir]

I don't care that he's overpaid, I just think the the conventional wisdom on his 2023 season was, "yeah, the offense dropped off but he's still one of the best catcher in the league." That's what was distressing about the article to me, because I didn't really notice his decline eye-test wise.

But it also matters a little that he's paid like a top four/middle-of the order offensive player, same as Nick. Because the reality is we just lost Rhys, and Bohm and Stott aren't top four offensive players either. That really does put more pressure on Nick and Marsh (or Bohm and Stott).

I don't mind if they re-sign him, just for a very different role and salary. I don't think there's going to be any "finding" of a successor in the next two years, just someone they trade for or sign in free agency when the time comes.