Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Yeah I didn't mean that Marchan is going to be the next Phillies starting catcher but he can at least potentially both back up JT and back up JT's successor. O'Hoppe obviously has a much higher ceiling but possibly the same floor. I think again of some recent old posts we had here about Cameron Rupp. Heck, pick a Phillies catching prospect dating back to the Cliff Lee trade and it's a pretty long list of pretty serious prospects (including Alfaro and Knapp more recently) with only D'Arnaud making it. Even Devy Grullon was supposed to be hot stuff once.

[bkeich]

I don’t see JT as a Hall of Famer, but it’s interesting to note that every catcher with at least 50 WAR is in the Hall. If JT stays reasonably healthy, doesn’t decline precipitously, and plays another six or seven years, he can get to50.

What that might prove is that catching defense is underrated by WAR. 50 seems like a low threshold for that statement to be true. Of course one could also argue that too many catchers get in the HOF.

[zambonir]

How many catchers are in the HOF since even a single voter began considering WAR?

I would think retroactive defensive WAR would be somewhere between useless and nonexistent.

[bkox]

Of course one could also argue that too many catchers get in the HOF.

Only 19 catchers in the HOF. 3 of those were from the negro leagues. Not sure which of these guys you would remove. The 2 borderline ones in my opinion are Ray Schalk (.656 career OPS but a .340OBP) and Rick Farrell (95 career OPS+ but amazing .378 OBP)

[julio]

I don’t see JT as a Hall of Famer, but it’s interesting to note that every catcher with at least 50 WAR is in the Hall. If JT stays reasonably healthy, doesn’t decline precipitously, and plays another six or seven years, he can get to50.

Another six or seven years? Until he's 39?

[phillychuck]

Mauer will likely get in. Molina is probably getting in easily, too, at least eventually.

[zambonir]

Not too far-fetched I don't think. Someone will likely give a two or three-year deal and then it would only take another year or two. 39 is exactly when Yadi stopped. Fisk was 45. A lot has to go right of course

[BostonRoss]

As bkox said, there are only 19 catchers in the HoF. That's the lowest number for any position except 3B (Rolen was #18).

I wasn't necessarily saying that JT would (or should) get in if he makes it to 50 WAR. I was just noting that all eligible 50+ WAR catchers have gotten in. But the HoF is biased toward players who do a few things really well over players whose talents are more balanced. Several catchers who were great hitters but mediocre defensive catchers are in (Piazza, Cochrane, Simmons, Lombardi, Mauer when he gets in). The 50+ WAR catchers were all arguably better hitters than JT.

One interesting thing to look at is that Carlton Fisk played a little more than twice the games that JT has so far. If you cut Fisk's numbers in half, they are pretty darn close to JT's numbers to date. Not that JT is likely to play until he's 45, but it shows that they are similar players.

[BostonRoss]

I wasn't implying he would play that long. I said "if."

But it's certainly possible. Four of JT's top ten 32-year-old comps played to age 39 or beyond. So did a lot of catchers with similar levels of defense to JT's that didn't even have his hitting ability. Brad Ausmus, Rick Dempsey, Tony Pena, and Benito Santiago all played into their 40s despite not being the hitter that JT is.

[andyb]

Catchers have shorter careers so the average HOF catcher has less WAR. Same with relief pitchers. While WAR is important, the best at each position should really be in there.

[zambonir]

Even with non-catchers I don't think the HoF voting pool is leaning on WAR very often. It's just a descriptive tool for context. Probably still just as many older voters looking at Gold Gloves and errors/passed ball stats as WAR (but mostly offense and reputation).

But there's also the HOF specific JAWS ratings. Jaffe doesn't even use defensive WAR for that. JT is still behind Lance Parrish there.

Catcher JAWS Leaders | Baseball-Reference.com

[BostonRoss]

It looks to me as if JAWS considers WAR, which is not just offense. I guess it's technically true that defensive WAR is not a variable in the calculation of JAWS, but total WAR does consider defense as well as offense.

In terms of WAR per game, JT and Parrish are the same using dWAR, but JT is 50% better using oWAR.

I think HoF voters do consider WAR a lot nowadays. How else to explain Scott Rolen, who never led the league in anything, has middling counting stats, and was never really an MVP candidate.

All that said, I still don't think JT will make the HoF, even if he gets to 50 WAR. It's possible if things go right for him, but not likely IMO.

[zambonir]

I guess I don't entirely understand this distinction...

Note that only batting or pitching WAR are used in determining the averages at a given position.

I agree more and more voters consider WAR these days, but nobody who voted for Yogi Berra or Johnny Bench did.

[andyb]

They did not have pitch framing back then either and that accounts for the majority of a catcher's dWAR these days anyway. JT was poor at that early in his career, had several good years and has now dropped back with that article seeming to imply age-related regression. In terms of traditional defense JT has been pretty good. It is the advanced stuff driving measures today.

I think JT has a shot at the Hall but it would require longevity (i.e. him continuing to be at least what he was last year for another 3-5 year). We are probably beyond the MVP-type offensive seasons. He is at the point now where if he picks up power it probably costs him somewhere else (OBP).

[BostonRoss]

The description of JAWS is not very clear, but the numbers seem to indicate the midpoint between WAR and WAR7.

I would hope that voters wouldn’t need WAR to decide about Bench or Berra! Though Yogi didn’t even get in on his first try!

[bkox]

Johan Rojas knew he had to work to do this winter. He didn't waste any time. Rojas is the only player on the active roster seeing live pitching right now.

“He’s taking the most swings of anybody we have up to this point."

Here's what he's working on: https://t.co/sALzPsimFK

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) December 27, 2023

Rojas was the first player to tell Long that he was ready to start working this offseason. They've quieted down his movements so he can make better decisions at the plate.

Long has been FaceTiming into his live BPs to watch Rojas work. He is encouraged: https://t.co/sALzPsimFK pic.twitter.com/j2CHkltc0b

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) December 27, 2023

[Austinfan]

The good sign isn't so much the optimiism, teams are always optimistic about players in the winter and ST, but the willingness of Rojas to recognize and work on his weaknesses as a hitter.

[rkeden]

He has so many basic tools you can't teach-- a player either has them or not and no amount of coaching can add them to the arsonal if they are missing. And in spite of his lacking needed at bats, being over-anxious, and being in a new environment, he did hit .300 during short regular season. Pretty impressive, if you ask me! (No one did!)

Now comes the part that can make or break his career. How willing is he to listen and learn? Can he make the necessary changes to increase his effectiveness and consistency. Can he build up his body to add muscle and thus power. Will he take a walk to add to his threat on the bases? And, especially, how badly does he want to be "great"?

Many many players get off to slow or disappointing starts. Mays, Schmidt, Stott, Bohm, etc, etc. The good ones figure it out with the help of coaches and teammates who are role models. Long is supposed to be a terrific batting coach with proven success. Lets hope this partnership works and soon because we really need that extra offensive weapon. My gut feeling is-- Rojas will be a star in the near future. Another reason to be excited about 2024!

[zambonir]

Rojas doesn't have to be a great hitter, just a decent one. Kevin Kiermaier has a career 98 OPS+ and a career average of just over 3.0 WAR across 11 seasons. He had a few seasons where he really hit the ball and a few where he didn't, but so long as Rojas is an elite defender and not an offensive disaster (which he was in the post-season, but that still doesn't foreshadow anything) he's a valuable major league player. It's just a question of whether he's ready to be that from Day 1 this year or could use a little more time (and if the latter does that mine part-time in MLB or full-time in AAA. Seems MLB is still the most likely outcome).

[phillychuck]

Selectivity is the easiest thing for Rojas to improve (since there is a lot of room for improvement), and it's great that he's working on it. I don't know if you can learn to be selective as a hitter if all your development years have been spent hacking away, though. It will be interesting to see if he manages to cut down his O-swing % by more than 5 percentage points from what it is now, 41.5%. League average is a bit over 30%. He can also learn to be a better bunter to use his speed.