Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

I don't think Alvarado looks that shaky, any reliever comes with that same injury risk, especially with that kind of stuff. And I guess I just feel better about Dominguez having a bounce-back (and healthier) season than I would a free agent who was great last year repeating it.

Same goes for Hoffman, for sure he could show some cracks, but I think that's inherent to the job, not something that would happen to him because he's less proven than a Neris or Kimbrel (or Brad Lidge or Edwin Diaz or younger Ken Giles for that matter).

[andyb]

Alvarado's shakiness is in his diminished availability. It is not performance related yet. He just does not have a great track record of being both good and healthy at the same time.

[Austinfan]

Only one way to find out. Point is most of the RPs available aren't sure things either - we got more out of Hoffman than most of the guys we gave FA money to the last five seasons or so.

One reason there's safety in numbers is that variability, when you pick up veterans with stuff coming off an off season, a rebound is a good possibility, when you pay for a guy coming off a peak season, regression is a good possibility. Difference is you can buy a lot more rebound candidates with the money you spend on a peak year, hoping for a repeat.

[zambonir]

He was healthy for all of 2022 (though he also got optioned). And he also hit career highs in IPs and Gs in 2021 despite two injuries, albeit in lower-leverage roles. I will still take just 40 innings from him if he's as good as he was last year, it just puts pressure on other players (including Soto and Hoffman and Kerkering) to step up if he's injured or on his off-days. If they sign Phil Maton or Brad Hand it will just mean that pressure is on them instead of Kerkering or Soto.

It does seem like the Phillies got caught in a place they didn't like market-wise. They were never at the top, and Stephenson was closer to the top than they expected (along with Hicks taking the starter opportunity). After that the options just weren't better. But it's not over yet.

[andyb]

Well the difference is that they aren't buying ANY rebound candidates so far. They have numbers, but their numbers now tend towards mediocrity at the back end (together with the questions at the front end).

[zambonir]

That is true. They have two internal rebound candidates, neither of whom can be optioned, and that is it. But I suspect there will be several more pitchers either in spring training or added to the 40 as teams release guys from spring training. The list of minor league invites is tiny.

I still think they are going to sign a position player too.

[andyb]

I do wonder if the reliever they might bring in will be in a trade for somebody with options left. The Phillies seem to like that model more and it usually only costs them a 40-man roster spot and a 3rd tier prospect. They will probably bring in another minor league free agent or two also. DD likes little deals for minor prospects to tweak the back end of the roster.

[zambonir]

I think this is all Kilambi's specialty, with input from Cotham and Kaplan too.

[EDmuch]

Well looks like Maton is off the board.

[zambonir]

I suppose it's possible they do have a budget, with the rest of the CBT room saved for deadline moves (or $2-4 million guys on minor league deals). They know the team as constituted, if it plays at the pace from June 2, is a serious division contender already. The team's recent history of slow starts aside a better result should be doable just from having Harper, a presumably better Turner and no Cave in LF and Rojas defensively, as well as a healthy Suarez and no Falter. Of course something can still go wrong between now and Opening Day, or other players could struggle.

But if they are not a serious division contender, no remaining moves will change that, still better to make a few big deadline moves and get that 4th seed again.

I'd sooner sign an outfielder/bench bat than a reliever at this point. More of them left, and not all of them likely to get the playing time they seek.

Brewers not ruling out a Williams trade but I think you'd have to include either Kerkering or Seranthony in that (and if the latter a better prospect package whereas Kerkering would headline). That makes the bullpen better but not deeper.

[Jazzhead]

I'd like to see Hoffman as the closer, if only to keep Alverado as a knife to be employed in the 7th or 8th. A lot depends on where Kerkering fits. If he, Seranthony and Alverado can get the most important outs before the 9th, that to me looks like a heckuva good pen. And then there's the two inning guy, Strahm, for close games in the sixth or later. And I think Dylan Covey - another 2-inning guy - is going to take a step forward this year

[zambonir]

There's just not a closer, which is also why they haven't felt the need to overpay for one. Even Kimbrel wouldn't have closed as much as he did, his preference aside, had Alvarado not been hurt (and to a lesser extent, Seranthony also struggling).

Hoffman's good with men on base which Alvarado probably isn't. They are both good over multiple innings (if not necessarily long outings). I think if anything Kerkering is the guy who can earn his share of saves if he outperforms Seranthony.

Don't know that I agree about Covey though. If he fills his role or makes a few decent spot starts that's more than enough. Any game he enters in April is a game that's already gone badly (or the bullpen in general has). And it's not even certain he makes the team.

Rather than closing, the role is high-leverage, and that's where we know for certain Alvarado is the #1, but we don't know who the next RHP is at #2. And if the situation calls for Alvarado to get some big outs against a LHB in the 6th or 7th, that will put Soto or Strahm in play for the 8th or 9th if it happens again.

[Austinfan]

Brogdon is the one to watch in ST. He lost a little velo on his FB, 96 to 95, but it was always more of a show me than an out pitch. Surprising his problem wasn't the changeup, which was still effective, but his cutter, which went from plus to minus and his command slipped. Looks like a guy who needs more tweaks than a rebuild.

[zambonir]

I do think it's probably true that they really are fine with Covey and either Bellatti or Brogdon early on unless someone beats them out or they want optionality. Last year those spots went to Andrew Vasquez and Yunior Marte (with Brogdon and Bellati also on the Opening Day roster!). No Hoffman, no Kerkering obviously, and Strahm was starting. Vasquez was out of options and stuck until the Lorenzen trade I think. Marte quickly gave way to McKinley Moore and then Luis Ortiz before coming back and being optioned again several times. Hoffman took that spot on May 4 and Covey arrived on May 23. Bellatti got injured early and never truly came back. Brogdon fell out early too.

And hey, maybe I spoke too soon on Covey, there were a lot of guys last year closing big games for the Dodgers and the Rangers and the DBacks last year who didn't look like anything special earlier in their career. Perhaps the Phillies do think he could fill a different role at some point.

[andyb]

I do think it's probably true that they really are fine with Covey and either Bellatti or Brogdon early on unless someone beats them out or they want optionality. Last year those spots went to Andrew Vasquez and Yunior Marte (with Brogdon and Bellati also on the Opening Day roster!). No Hoffman, no Kerkering obviously, and Strahm was starting. Vasquez was out of options and stuck until the Lorenzen trade I think. Marte quickly gave way to McKinley Moore and then Luis Ortiz before coming back and being optioned again several times. Hoffman took that spot on May 4 and Covey arrived on May 23. Bellatti got injured early and never truly came back. Brogdon fell out early too.

Well they started 25-32 so I am not sure they were really "fine" with that early bullpen. Obviously Hoffman turned out to be good and Kerkering looks good for the future. Just not seeing any new versions of that in the upper minors this year.

[zambonir]

Yeah, but they were 15-13 in April (15-14 with the one March game) which wasn't so bad. There are definitely games the bullpen cost them but it was the good relievers as much as the bad ones. And I believe they lost every start Falter made, plus the offense had no Hoskins or Harper, Jake Cave in LF and a struggling Schwarber and Turner. If they don't start great this year's it's not going to be because they have Kerkering instead of Stephenson, or Bellatti instead of Maton.

I mean, did we really see Kerkering being a factor at this time last year? Baker was considered ahead of him on the first day of spring training (also, in truth, Kerkering was not a factor, nothing was at stake by the time he came up and his post-season was hit-and-miss). Nobody thought Hoffman was going to help either. By definition, we can't see those guys yet (plus some of them still haven't been signed). McGarry, Marte, Mercado, Ortiz one of them could still break out or put it together.

It's just unfortunate depth-wise that they are going to have to lose one or two of the AAAA/fringe MLB arms they have.

[LoneStarPhan]

This time last year, I sure didn't see Hoffman, Covey, or Kerkering as being a factor in the bullpen for 2023. Yet they all turned out to be there by season's end. Who knows who might come to the front this year?

That said, I would like to see another arm added to the bullpen mix. I also think they would like to have at least one or two slots filled by players with an option to provide flexibility to move some pitchers between the bullpen and time in the minors. This makes it much more likely that they end up losing one or more of the pitchers now on the 40 man roster. Brogdon and Bellini seem likely to be lost if they don't have good springs.

[Austinfan]

Does anyone think Dombrowski is finished dealing? They're just not going to over pay for a 7th inning guy, they'll dumpster dive for rehab projects and nurse the young arms.

[zambonir]

Well, the supply is almost down to nothing now. At this point it's not so much overpaying - they should all be perfectly affordable - as no one is worth DFAing Brogdon or Bellati or Covey for.

He literally would have to "deal" if he wants someone who isn't just competing for a spot (i.e. another Soto-like trade). It's also hard to find a dumpster dive with options left. The ideal scenario would probably be to trade Bellatti (bellini is a cocktail LSP) or Brogdon for someone with options, but that someone would have warts too if they're available.

No doubt there will be 2-3 guys in camp on minor league deals who aren't signed yet, and possibly another 1-2 between the end of ST and Opening Day (along with some departures).

Nobody seems worth a guaranteed deal at this point unless the likes of Lorenzen and Junis are still looking for rotation jobs and $8 million but eventually settle for the pen and $6 million.

[David_Criss]

No sense going into the next tax bracket for what is left in Free agency - save Bellinger or Snell, which are asking for stupid money. Doubt he can trade Walker or Castellanos to free up money and ergo opening a whole that could be improved upon.

Helsley (St. Louis), Alzolay (Cubs) and Jensen (Boston) are potential trade bait to go after, but who do the Phillies trade for a setup/closer with options remaining. Lorenzen or Junis wouldn't be horrible pen additions as suggested above will see their prices come down shortly.

I also have to think Griff McGary can be a potential bullpen piece pretty soon at no additional cost.