Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Yeah I think any deal with an opt-out also has to be frontloaded somewhat. Like, Machado signed a 10-year, $300 million deal, collected $120 million of that in four years, and then signed a new 11-year, $350 million deal. If Yamamoto wants an opt-out he's still gonna be looking to collect 25-30 million per for the years prior to that point (whether it's three, four or five).

The player's got all the leverage here. Doubt deferrals are going to be a big factor either, especially not if he signs with the Dodgers. He'd be the guy benefitting from Ohtani's deferral, not deferring himself. A signing bonus is also pretty likely I'd think (the opposite of a deferral though it can still be spread out over the deal).

[Aquapong]

I’ve often heard sport writers compare the level of play in the top leagues of Japan and Korea to AA. It’s not the nationality of the player so much as the competition level of the league they come from.

That said, you’re right there is a lot more data available now and the pipeline of players coming from the leagues is more established.

[allentown]

Yeah I think any deal with an opt-out also has to be frontloaded somewhat. Like, Machado signed a 10-year, $300 million deal, collected $120 million of that in four years,

That's not front-loaded at all, it's flat: $30 mill/yr for 4 years and thee same average for the final 6.

[zambonir]

Yeah okay I didn't mean frontloaded so much as "not backloaded," as Fish proposed. Opt-outs are for players who think they might be even worth more three-four years from now or for players who are worth less initially because they are unproven or injured or coming off a bad year. But nobody viewed Yamamoto as unproven.

Anyway, moot now. 12 years, $325 million plus the posting fee of $50.6 million. No one but the Dodgers really could have done that, given what Ohtani did for them, but also because they can double down on the other revenue streams from having two Japanese stars.

[andyb]

Right, but I’m saying make the first 3 years worth 15 million per, with a big raise in subsequent seasons (or they can do the deferral game) and if he leaves after 3 then at least they wouldn’t have paid him 30 million a year and the ~50 million posting fee in those 3 years. I suppose a baloon contract like that may not be too appealing.

I see that point strategically from the team perspective, though I imagine for the player to consider it the contract would have to have an even higher AAV than anticipated in the post opt-out years. So we may be talking closer to $350 million if the player only gets $15 million for each of the first 3.

Posting fee for deferred payments is another topic not broached yet. We just have not seen anyone try to do that yet and would MLB/teams argue that the posting fee should be discounted like the AAV on deferred money?

[zambonir]

The Phillies run a pretty tight ship, I wonder if/when we'll hear what they supposedly offered. If it was less than $300M they weren't serious though it seems doubtful they were offered a chance to match or raise the $325M either. The Mets were actually the team to set that number, which the Dodgers then matched; the Yankees only bid $300M.

Rosenthal: Thoughts on Yoshinobu Yamamoto's Dodgers deal and where the market...

[andyb]

I could also see the Phillies not want to front load a deal with opt outs and a posting fee.

This was more about being a serious player in the Japanese market. I wonder if they have interest in that other Japanese pitcher who is more of a 4th/5th starter. Plus remember they are interested in the Cuban pitcher that pitched in Japan the last few seasons. Clearly Middleton has sent a message that they do not want to be left out of a big market.

[zambonir]

It's certainly not rocket science, becoming a serious player. The Yankees had an in-person scout at every single one of Yamamoto's starts last year. Cashman saw at least one. I suspect the Phillies were a bit less involved (or late to the table) but they don't have to be for the next guy (in future off-seasons).

[Callison]

Why not print an opinion, or print what some in the front office may be leaking? What is the damage from printing it?

I also had thought this might be just shrewd negotiating and posturing by the Phils for a moment, but the recent apology for being wrong, though stopping short of admitting who was wrong, shows the scribes were just wrong.

I get that these people are reporting opinions and that's their job, etc. What I'm sore about is THEY DON'T KNOW ANYTHING and jump to a disastrous conclusion anyway. They could just have easily have concluded the Phils are on the verge of signing somebody. When your sources dry up and you can't tell what's going on, you gotta include a lotta IMHO, and the responsible thing to report is that the Phils are playing it real close to the vest.

The irresponsible thing to do was to guess that nothing is going to happen because you don't know about it.

[zambonir]

They weren't guessing. They had sources. Including within the Phillies. The Phillies told people they were interested in Yamamoto. They also told people they didn't expect to go crazy for him. And they told people they didn't expect to get him. None of those things were necessarily contradictory. And they were all true.

[Callison]

They weren't guessing. They had sources. Including within the Phillies. The Phillies told people they were interested in Yamamoto. They also told people they didn't expect to go crazy for him. And they told people they didn't expect to get him. None of those things were necessarily contradictory. And they were all true.

When you're predicting the future, you're guessing.

[andyb]

Hopefully this is phase one of our Roki Sasaki long term plan. He is rumored to be thinking of coming in 2025 where he would still be young enough to have to sign through the amateur international pool so money will be less important to him (though we should not sacrifice a penny of that pool if we can avoid it).

Sasaki would be signed for $5-$6 million and endorsements with comfort in the city and organization likely important in the decision. The Angels did not try to sign Ohtani for huge pre-arbitration deals when they signed him that way, but I wonder if MLB teams will just go for broke. Sasaki will probably be more expensive than Yamamoto if it were a true open market and would be 23 for the entire 2025 season. Assume MLB and Japan would frown on a $300 million deal immediately, but I don't think there is a rule if they signed him long term after his first year in the U.S. How would that be qualitatively different than the Julio Rodriguez deal for instance?

[zambonir]

When you're predicting the future, you're guessing.

Including if you're Dave Dombrowski.

[zambonir]

Anndddd, here's the messaging from the team for the rest of the off-season.

Phils maintain offseason plan after missing on Yamamoto

Try to extend Wheeler, and...

rotation and bullpen depth. (Free agents like Blake Snell, Josh Hader, etc., remain highly unlikely.) There had been some thought the Phillies would try to sign an outfielder to provide insurance in case center fielder Johan Rojas struggled. But the Phils do not want to block an opportunity for Rojas by signing someone who expects regular playing time.

Any outfielder the Phillies might add, Dombrowski said, “Might be going around the edges.”

He also declined to say what their offer to Yamamoto was, but implied they were comfortable in that $300M range.

“I don’t think it had anything to do with anything else, he just preferred to be a Dodger,” Dombrowski said. “Ultimately he was just not a person attuned to coming to Philly.”

(Which he still hasn't even to visit!)

[andyb]

$7 million luxury tax bill for last year. Mets is a bit more.

4th-place Mets hit with record $101M luxury tax

[allentown]

That stings.

[zambonir]

A rounding error for Steve Cohen. For a person who makes $100,000 a year would be like paying a $500 home repair bill.

[bkeich]

Is it funny that the Phillies have spent the 2nd most money on FA so far? They resigned 1 player. Added no one yet and we are 2nd (very distant, less than 20% of the Dodgers spending) in the league.

[zambonir]

That won't last very long. But it also speaks to the fact that the Phillies made one of the best and biggest signings of the year, and the second-best one after the Dodgers (yes, better than Yamamoto based on both player track record and price if not age and hype). It just happened to be their own guy.

Things will move very fast now, if not after Christmas than after New Year's. Everyone was waiting for Ohtani and Yamamoto to set the market.

[Docs]

I would be unhappy if my $500 home repair didn't make the playoffs