Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Well, he fired the contractors already.

[allentown]

It just happened to be their own guy.

That makes all the difference in the world. Signing your own guy is a totally necessary preservation of the almost-status quo. Almost, because the team loses the advantage of having a star pitcher on his original contract. Pay to market and there is less money to spend elsewhere. If a team is to include multiple stars or near stars, and you can't get to WS without that, then you need some home-grown stars at below-market rate. Since that only happens for 6-7 years, it is mandatory to keep a steady flow of home-grown, preferably stars, but at least clearly above-average players. The Phillies brass has done quite well with the stars they've signed, not-so well with lesser FA signings, and not-at-all well thus far with the home-grown, clearly-plus young players needed to make their budget work. It was a big blow when Kingery went bust. Another blow when Painter went down. There is a reason DD insists he will wait to see whether or not the young OFs come through. Unless ownership allows a bigger busting of the lux cap, he has no choice but to do this.

[Philsmania]

$7 million luxury tax bill for last year. Mets is a bit more.

4th-place Mets hit with record $101M luxury tax

The Mets, Angels and, increasingly, Red Sox have shown that having an owner willing to spend money doesn't alone make a good organization.

[andyb]

The Red Sox did spend a decade where they showed that spending money wisely could be a good strategy.

This is kind of why I never liked the Castellanos deal. It just never made sense addressing a weakness or getting an irreplaceable part. Taijuan Walker addresses a weakness even if he is not great. Spend money smartly and never forget the building blocks like the farm system where every dollar spent is much, much more valuable than dollars spent on the major league team. This is a lesson we forgot during the Wade/Amaro years.

[Callison]

We always knew Yamamoto was a long shot, but he could have been a difference maker for the Phils. Reading the aftermath of losing a recruiting war - you already know how bad it is - can hardly stand to read much of it - but the story from DD about how the Phils went about it, at least we can see the negotiating was competitive. No telling how it all went down, but it seems there were several teams ready to pay him, but as DD said, he just wanted to e a Dodger. Some guy in the Chronicle wrote something like, "...another day and the Dodgers sign the top FA available again..." Couldn't have ended any worse. Phils made their best effort. Maybe the Phils can hit him anyway.

Snell is still out there, the pitching FA consolation prize. How interested should the Phils be? He could have an upside out of SD. Have to hurry before the Dodgers sign him.

[zambonir]

Of course. But, to bkeich's point that it seems weird the Phillies have been the second-most profligate team in free agency, that's simply because keeping your own player is dog-bites-man.

And it was also a million years ago, in Internet media time.

As for free agents and payrolls guaranteeing you nothing, I reckon there is even a direct correlation between having the richest and most free-spending owner and that owner also having no idea how to run a team (either because he tries to do it himself or makes bad hires or both). Middleton had that same quality initially but is in a sweet spot now. The Steinbrenners (both generations) and John Henry have gone in cycles. Getting the guy you can trust - or the one who can tell you to buzz off and won't get fired for it - is the key I think. Though most Yankees fans think they are too patient and stable these days!

[zambonir]

Doubt he's coming back but this is the pond the Phillies are probably swimming in (if that) for any sort of rotation add. Bullpen piece should still be a little higher-end, especially if they're not going to spend on an OF.

Michael Lorenzen should do well in second wave of free agency – Phillies Nation

[BostonRoss]

I can't get worked up about the Phillies failing to sign Yamamoto. As great as he has been in Japan, there is no track record of that translating to a superstar MLB career, or leading teams to championships.

There are only three Japanese players who have average 3 WAR in MLB: Ohtani, Ichiro, and Kodai Senga's first year with the Mets. None of them have been to the World Series. I could find only four Japanese players who had over 2.5 WAR in a seasons where their team won a championship: Matsuzaka (4.1) and Okajima (2.9) for the 2007 Red Sox, 38-year-old Koji Uehara (3.5) for the 2013 Sox, and Hideki Matsui (2.7) for the accursed 2009 Yankees.

This isn't to say that Yamamoto was a bad signing for the Dodgers, but it doesn't come close to guaranteeing them anything. Nor would the Phillies signing him have done so.

[zambonir]

Yamamoto was never about this season. And signing him may or may not have meant letting Wheeler go. That's where the focus turns to now. Extending Wheeler, or, should they fail to do so, replacing him next season - whether that's with someone older on a short-term deal (a la Scherzer and Verlander last year) if Painter and Abel seem ready to slot in quickly and capably enough, or a bigger FA.

Whether it's a good signing for LA we won't know for a few years, maybe not even until the opt-out (or lack thereof). But even if he only hits his floor he probably won't seem that expensive. Much like Walker isn't actually that expensive - heck, he actually hit that 2.5 WAR threshold last year!

[allentown]

None of them have been to the World Series

The very argument Phillies fans used against Schilling and Rolen. There are no one-man or two-man teams which are successful. Winning takes an overall plus, at least moderately balanced team. You generally need star(s) to succeed, but there is no player who can carry a team to playoffs and a WC, no matter how good.

[zambonir]

Yeah there's nothing specific about Japanese players when it comes to any of this stuff. Sure, there's an argument that they might cost more but that's true of any player who hits an actual open market (which is rare in MLB). And I don't know that gambling on overpaying for performance that doesn't carry over to the US is any worse than gambling on the past performance of aging players or paying for a brand name rather than results (though I have no problem with that as long as you know you're doing it).

[andyb]

Interesting dissection of Realmuto's 2023. Decline was really in defense and baserunning primarily even if he was not any slower.

There’s a Hole in J.T. Realmuto’s Tool Box

[BostonRoss]

Not sure I follow this. It seems to me that Schilling and Rolen wanted out more than the fans wanted them gone.

Of course, Schilling had been to the World Series.

[Callison]

Worst season of JT's career, for some reason. But nearly everybody expects JT to fix it.

Maybe the Phils will be competitive from the start this season. Then the team won't be so desperate - as in forced to play him - and JT can get more time off.

[VoteForKalas]

There will be a tipping point where JT will decline enough as a catcher that a decision will need to be made on a position change if we keep him.

In the meantime, it would be nice to get a backup catcher we can play more consistently to help JT out.

[xogfog]

If JT's catching and hitting skills hold up until the end of Castellanos's contract, he could move to 1B and Bryce can go back to the outfield. Of course, things could break up before then if they fail to win it all in the next two years.

[phillychuck]

Marchan? Good year in LV, .982 OPS in Venezuela this winter in a lot of ABs. Just 24 years old, although it seems like he's been around forever.

xogfog: I really don't think JT hits enough to shift off of catcher.

[zambonir]

Yeah JT's defensive decline as outlined in that story is distressing. And his offensive decline, if he's actually in one, makes him a bat that doesn't even play at 2B or 3B. Hopefully he has a bounce-back season on both counts. I figured the Phillies would probably re-sign him as he transitioned to an 80-game and back-up catcher. but maybe not. He's gonna get to the end of this deal but without the DH/1B caliber offense we might have hoped.

It should at least be a competition between Marchan and Stubbs if nothing else. Stubbs still has an option IIRC too, so it's not out of the question they could still bring in a veteran back-up type to compete as well.

[andyb]

The real question with JT I think is whether he would play better at catcher with more rest (i.e. 110-120 games instead of 130+). 2 more seasons on his deal and he is 33 years old. There probably is not another long term deal after it runs out because his offense will not play well at any other position.

Not sure whether we really have any alternatives though, and if he is just an average catcher the next two years that is fine. Marchan could be a bit better than Stubbs but the difference is probably not that dramatic. He got an extra option year so he probably is the backup catcher starting in 2025 absent injuries this season.

[zambonir]

Well, yeah, and I think that article you posted seems like a pretty strong reason for the front office to go to Thomson, and Thomson to JT, proposing that it's time to get him off his feet a little more.

And maybe there's still 10 or 12 games for him between DH and 1B when Schwarber and Harper also get a day off. He'd likely still be the same or more productive as one of the bench players (i.e. a Cave or Clemens type) doing that.