Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

allentown · Dec '23

Fans don't like to have their expectation/temporary anticipation of a big potential signing dampened. Of course, that's exactly why the team leaks that it isn't going to happen and why the Phillies quickly traded Lee while only talking to one team and winding up with no value back for him. The Phillies fear being tarred by fan expectations which have no chance of happening. Keeping Lee/Halladay/Hamels should have happened. We might well have one more WC and parade if the owners had been flexible. Wirh the Dodgers' binge, I think the Phillies need both Wheeler and Yamamoto to get back to the WS.

zambonir · Dec '23

Isn't the ostensible origin of the "nattering nabobs" phrase when someone had a problem with the media printing unflattering things that were true?

zambonir · Dec '23

It's true that having three aces probably helps you get get out of the NLCS but in the current playoff era it doesn't necessarily help you get there.

Regardless, there is nothing about Yamamoto specifically that is needed for the Phillies to keep up with the Dodgers. They might not even ever face the Dodgers (still hasn't happened twice now). But they could get a different pitcher, if the need (and available payroll) calls for it. That might happen at the deadline anyway - this might be the year they don't settle for a Thor or Lorenzen if there's an injury or Sanchez isn't for real or Walker or Nola disappoint (relative to their respective expectations).

But Yamamoto specifically is more about what happens without Wheeler (potentially) and beyond, not keeping up with the Dodgers now.

If the reports are true, we won't be talking about it much longer. I feel confident saying that if he isn't actually coming to Philadelphia (they came to him, in LA) or at least having a second round of meetings the Phillies are not finalists. If we hear otherwise in the next few days or if it actually drags all the way until January 4 and there's still a chance, great.

allentown · Dec '23

Unless it's Faux News or other regions of the Murdoch Machine, that is the major source of ire at the media. The second leading cause is among PR types who, despite their best efforts, can't get the media to pick up their story.

EDmuch · Dec '23

"Nuttering nabobs of negativity" was Spiro Agnew's phrase describing the media that was on his tail and also Tricky Dick's

zambonir · Dec '23

I did have to Google it and apparently it's an urban legend that he said it about the media. It was originally directed at some anti-Nixon political candidates in 1970. But, he was always (and already) at war with the media too, and the two things were eventually conflated. By, lol, the media.

Aquapong · Dec '23

Yamamoto may have average 7 innings per outing, but how many pitches is that? I’m comfortable with our rotation already. Japanese players are often a risk…particularly at $300 million. You could get Yu Darvish or Chan Ho Park.

zambonir · Dec '23

Chan Ho Park is not Japanese. He was also great to good for quite a few seasons.

allentown · Dec '23

A 20 WAR with 4 years above 3 WAR, including an ~5 WAR peak year. He was Korean. Of course, our biggest fiasco, although years back, was the 2 Korean pitchers for $2 mill, when $2 mill was really a lot of bonus money.

Aquapong · Dec '23

My bad. But you get the point.

andyb · Dec '23

Yu Darvish was worth about 25 WAR for the first 9 seasons in the U.S. coming over at age 25. One could easily see a contract in the $10-$12 million per WAR range now, and 7-9 years from now $14-$15 million. $300 million is not really that outlandish even if you assume he has a TJ surgery and several mediocre seasons somewhere in 9 years.

It may seem expensive, but it is really not as there are not a great deal of pitchers who can average almost 3 WAR over a decade.

zambonir · Dec '23

I just don't think that point has anything to do with the nationality of the player. Sometimes you get Stephen Strasburg too. Yamamoto's youth, stuff, accomplishments, reported work habits and the ability of teams to analyze his performance in ways that didn't even exist for MLB players 10 years ago all say he's the real deal. Not without risk but so are Nola and Wheeler.

He's also not going to get $300 million I don't think. That is likely the ceiling, with the posting fee. Unless the bidding war gets crazy. Phillies aren't going to win the bidding war so no reason to worry there.

Oh, came here assuming it had already been posted, it is now official per Gelb and Coffey that the Phillies have submitted an offer.

Jazzhead · Dec '23

Yamamoto will come to Philadelphia if (i) the Phils make a competitive offer, and (ii) Yamamoto wants to come to Philadelphia. The world - and presumably Yamamoto - has seen the electric atmosphere in CPB, the brotherhood that exists in the clubhouse, and ownership's commitment to winning. Does Yamamoto want to be a part of this? That's the question that remains to be answered.

zambonir · Dec '23

The Phillies have plenty to offer as a franchise and that alone is new. But, so do the other teams. Can't really blame him if he wants to go play with Ohtani on a team that has won its division 10 out of the last 11 years, won more than 100 games four of the last five years, and won an actual World Series. The Phillies have not done any of those things. Even once.

And then there's the California part (combination of location, Japanese community, and, in LA's case if not SF's, the weather). It seems somewhat telling that he has conducted most of this process from California.

On the other hand if he signs with the Yankees it will be for money and the brand more than a guarantee, and if he signs with the Mets or Giants it will be for money and the belief that he can help build something there.

Still skeptical he would sign here when he's never even been here. Unless there's another round of talks/visits/offers.

DurhamBull · Dec '23

I agree with your overall point, but nevertheless I'm fairly certain I recall the Phillies winning at least one World Series.

zambonir · Dec '23

In the time period I outlined. (But smiley noted.)

Ironically, I would characterize the coverage of the Phillies' chances with Yamamoto as fairly positive, even though they aren't being characterized as frontrunners. Nobody is saying they aren't serious, or that they are only in the mix because they are known to spend money/land big fish and can be used to pressure other teams. Even though I suspect there's some truth to that as well.

fish · Dec '23

I think the Phils best chance is to come in high with an opt-out after 3 years (the posting fee is probably too much to waste on anything shorter than a 3 year deal unless he would take a lower annual salary those years). If you are confident enough to pay him 250 million, then you should also be confident that if you give him a 325 million deal that he'll opt out to cash in again.

andyb · Dec '23

Wouldn't the posting fee apply to the whole contract with or without an opt out? So you sign someone to a 9 year/$300 million deal with a an opt-out after 3/100 the posting fee? $46.75 million in posting fee on top of the $100 million for 3 years would be a huge amount.

Guessing that MLB teams will not want to give opt-outs because of that. Have we really seen a major Asian first contract deal with an opt out?

zambonir · Dec '23

Well, the Phillies weren't his last choice at least. (Story says the Giants think he's signing with either Dodgers, Mets or Yankees, much like everybody.)

It would be something if the Phillies were playing possum and they made an insane offer though.

As Yoshinobu Yamamoto's decision draws nearer, he has at least one contract offer of $300 million or more. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi ( @jonmorosi ) December 22, 2023

fish · Dec '23

Right, but I’m saying make the first 3 years worth 15 million per, with a big raise in subsequent seasons (or they can do the deferral game) and if he leaves after 3 then at least they wouldn’t have paid him 30 million a year and the ~50 million posting fee in those 3 years. I suppose a baloon contract like that may not be too appealing.

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