Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[phillychuck]

I'm nervous about Yamamoto -- Japanese pitchers don't have a great overall success rate in MLB, and neither do 5'10" pitchers. Maybe he's the exception, but I wouldn't gamble boatloads of money on it. Im probably overly cautious.

[zambonir]

I mean, I think the Phillies are serious, but not necessarily serious enough to win a bidding war. But would they blow by all tax considerations for just one season if they can get him? Maybe. Would it mean letting Wheeler go? Probably, but that might happen anyway.

I just think Yamamoto has gotten a lot more hyped as the market ripened. Seems like we mostly heard about his size and whether or not his Japanese success would translate, with Snell, Nola and Montgomery considered surer things, but at some point it shifted.

If they sign him Walker is the guy you have to trade, Sanchez is still cheap. Of course Walker still managed to put up a 2.5 BBRef War last year. Would Yamomoto give you five or six or just four? Darvish was 3.5 his first season, 5.6 the next.

Would certainly make the extra outfielder and extra reliever a lot less important.

[Callison]

The Phils FIRST meeting with Yamamoto will just be to make sure the Phils know how to make an attractive offer - things and amounts it must contain. The Phils will be taking careful notes. You don't do a lot of negotiating with the guy already showing the winning hand. IMHO, you don't bother talking to this guy unless you are in it to win it against the richest spendthrifts and fiercest negotiators in MLB. As a playoff team, the Phils look good to FA pitchers. After the Phils agree to price and terms, how do they close it? Well, you know their best guys are on it. I doubt it will come down to price.

[zambonir]

If it doesn't come down to price the Phillies aren't going to win it. And if it does, the Mets probably will.

The one interesting thing is the notion that Japanese players have preferred to be the only star from their country on a team in the past. I assume there's more marketing money to be made that way. But supposedly he and Ohtani are happy to play together (and you'd think they could parlay that into even more $).

[schillingfan]

Odds are both Jersey Shore and Clearwater will be very good prospect laden teams this summer, but that still leaves a 2 year gap before prospects arrive in numbers.

What odds? It is still a below average system. Jersey Shore and Clearwater might have better prospects than AA and AAA, but what evidence is there to suggest they are very good. Average at best compared to the rest of the league for talent from most evaluations. DSL and Clearwater were good teams, but also not especially young last year (about league average). And Crawford may very well be at Reading most of the year.

I think he’s said this the last four years. He’s still waiting for a Godot

[BostonRoss]

He’s still waiting for a Godot

Godot Gaskins College Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

[zambonir]

For all the years that AF has tried to project 100% homegrown line-ups where no one ever flops, gets traded or is replaced by a FA, a 2024 team with just three guys out of nine (assuming Rojas slots in) would actually be a lot better than most years (and it could have been four of nine last year with Rhys). We'd be lucky if they do actually have three more (position players) by 2026.

Randomly found these cold takes (hey, we all have them) about Rupp, our possible catcher of the future who absolutely should or shouldn't have been traded.

Continuing the discussion from August 1, 2016 Trade Deadline Discussion

[Austinfan]

You have to hit on 1st rd picks in baseball, odds are you'll find some RPs and bench players later on in a draft, but rarely do you hit on a Rollins (2nd), Howard (5th), Hoskins (5th). Which is why you should go upside after the 1st rd, if you're gonna miss on most picks at least when you hit, hit big.

Bohm, Stott, Painter, Abel, Miller, it looks like we're past Moniak, Haseley, etc.
And you have to find some LA players. That's been a huge hole.

[zambonir]

Bohm, Stott, Painter, Abel, Miller, it looks like we're past Moniak, Haseley, etc.

An above replacement-level major league regular, a very good one, two pitchers that are still complete unknowns and another who still remains to be seen (it's even early to be able to see if Miller and Crawford will work out any differently than Moniak and Haseley, even if they look better as prospects (and Moniak is turning out to be a major league regular yet, maybe).

Bohm and Stott were the last of the Almaraz picks (and the last of the drafts when they were supposed to be losing) so that's something at least (especially since they tried to make the playoffs in 2018 and failed, at least dropping to 14 didn't end up hurting them).

Wherever they come from, they could use a star or two. If those are pitchers, great, but those arms did not arrive as fast as hoped (even the cynics!).

[andyb]

I look at that sequence of picks and say:

Bohm - below average outcome for pick slot.
Stott - good pick.
Painter - great pick but health means we may get little out of it.
Abel - OK pick. Nothing special. Progress but deficiencies.
Miller - TBD.

All in all we are about average in those picks which have generally been lower picks except for Bohm (one of the less good picks).

We are doing OK but every organization gets a number one every year and there is zero evidence we are doing better than average.

[bkox]

for those wanting Yamamoto

Report: Yamamoto has $300M-plus contract offers from Giants, Red Sox

[zambonir]

Not terribly surprising. MLBTR opened with 9 years/225 but clearly things got more heated. Wonder how many years those offers are actually for (gotta be at least 12; is 15 possible? Opt-outs? Deferrals?).

Matt W has mentioned several times that there is no way the Phillies are the most desperate team and this makes that obvious. SF is overpaying after whiffing on everyone since Harper, Red Sox trying to get back to being a post-season team with a rookie GM and we know what the NY teams are all about right now.

[bkox]

From Todd Zolecki's weekly email:

Would the Phils love Yamamoto in their rotation the next several seasons? Of course. But the Phillies entered the meeting with little expectation that they will sign him. Other teams simply have more money and more motivation to do it. The Phillies are simply not positioned to beat the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Giants and Red Sox in a bidding war. But, sure, anything can happen.

If it doesn’t, the Phillies still like their rotation. They should. An argument can be made that the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and everybody else in baseball is trying to get to the Phils’ level. The Phillies’ rotation last season had an MLB-best 17.7 WAR, according to FanGraphs. The Phillies plan to return the same five starters next season: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez. It is why FanGraphs projects them to have the best rotation again, with 15.6 WAR.

[fish]

Well, establishing a seat at the table, making connections, and going through the process is at least practice for another day.

[zambonir]

For sure especially given the lack of history/success with Asian players and the new head of international.

Tucked into Lauber's Wheeler's story:

It’s no wonder president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said he wants to hammer out an extension with Wheeler. It might be the Phillies’ top remaining priority before opening day, even as they shoot their (long, according to major league sources) shot with free-agent pitching prize Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

"Major league sources" probably means it's someone from the Phillies but they didn't want him to say "team sources."

How much will it cost the Phillies to keep Zack Wheeler beyond 2024?

[Austinfan]

Abel has a good shot at being promoted after the All-star break if he gets off to a good start, and if Painter recovers from surgery (high probability these days) after the All-star break in 2025. So to have a solid rotation, and two top young pitching prospects in the wings, is a good start.

I rhink what could really help is Brogdon finding his changeup, add him and Kerkering, and we won't miss Kimbrel.
They have a bunch of hard throwing RPs at Reading and Lehigh last year, they just need one to take a step up.

[Callison]

I dislike the sports scribes saying the Phils won't really compete for Yamamoto. Why not just let the hand play out instead of predicting a loss? If you think that way and you're a sports scribe for the Phils, keep it to yourself. We'll know soon enough. The financial problems of signing Yamamoto and keeping Wheeler - GZ, the Phils should be so lucky.

Similarly, some scribes predict the Phils won't make any big moves. They THINK this because they don't know about any.

But I guess we'll be reading stuff like this all along the way...

[zambonir]

That was not a prediction, that was a credible journalist citing credible anonymous sources, plural - which are likely within the Phillies' front office. I believe another reporter, also with sources, said that the Phillies were only all-in on Yamamoto before they signed Nola, and now it's more due diligence/you never know.

Also not a reporter's job to have feelings about what the team does (including winning or losing).

[allentown]

Reporters' job is to report the facts and credible talk-around-the-league. Asking them to embargo unfavorable news until it becomes public is asking them to help fans maintain a false belief in baseball Santa Claus. They are treating us as adults, not toddlers in need of Santa. The Phillies have clearly established a pattern, over decades, of meeting with and expressing interest in major foreign FA, seemingly as a PR strategy. Admittedly, we aren't a top destination for Asian stars, but we've been beyond tepid in our pursuit of Cuban stars, where we aren't at the same disadvantage. Then there is the fact that the Phillies want to re-sign Wheeler and that doesn't leave the kind of $ to sign a foreign star. The Phillies seem almost xenophobic in there lack of interest in foreign star players. MAG was the only Cuban we gave significant $ to and that seemed a PR exercise on a par with the two Koreans from way back who got $2 mill from us. We signed MAG after other teams stepped away considering him too injured to sign. Turned out the other teams were correct. He still did better than the two Koreans who elicited the comment from a team employee as they arrived stat-side: "these don't look like the guys we signed."

[zambonir]

Yamamoto said to be meeting with Yanks and Mets a second time; are teams out if they only get one meeting? We shall see (supposedly Boston and SF have already made their offers of $300M+).

Meanwhile, note from Rosenthal

Rosenthal: Yankees need more pitching with or without Yamamoto, plus more Ohtani...

The Phillies might be a long shot for Yamamoto, but their pursuit of him is symbolic of their heightened attempts to establish a foothold in Asia.

Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies’ president of baseball operations, learned after taking over in Dec. 2020 that the team was short on Asian scouting. Over the past two years, he has expanded the Phillies’ international operation, directing assistant GM Jorge Velandia to focus on Asia in addition to Latin America.

Velandia became more active traveling to Asia. So did many U.S. scouts who work for the team. The Phillies also hired more Asian scouts, and now have two based in Japan, one in Taiwan and one in Korea. Their new international scouting director, Derrick Chung, is Korean-American.