Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[allentown]

I think the question would be more whether they can sign Yamamoto and keep Wheeler, in the more medium-term

That is exactly the question and the answer seems to be no. They like Wheeler, he likes Philly, he has pitched well for them and he has mostly pitched a lot of innings. The fans like him. That is their priority. The issue with FA signings was the question of would they come back to haunt us by preventing us from re-signing our own players (at the time I was thinking only home-grown guys like Nola and at one time I thought Kingery -- now with Wheeler we have the question about re-signing a former FA). Honestly, this is now just another way that DD's decision to drop $100 mill on Castellanos after signing Schwarber for the same amount, comes back to really bite the Phillies in the tail. Schwarber has been a plus, but having both on the team, along with Harper and Hoskins (up to now) created an extremely inflexible and unbalanced roster as well causing budget woes.

The Phillies actions this winter shout that they planned to extend Nola and Wheeler and that this set the budget except for tinkering with minor salary additions. If the team does well, they are probably willing to add $ to tinker at the deadline, but we are maxed out on budget.

[andyb]

Noting in Gelb's Athletic mailbag article that Wheeler's people are probably going to ask for the 5/185 contract that De Grom got as a starting point. That seems too much given the age-related risk. My guess is the Phillies keep the AAV in their offer under $30 million and stretch it out a year or two longer.

And agree with Allentown. That Castellanos deal after Schwarber was just overkill. They needed to sign only one of them and build out pieces elsewhere.

[zambonir]

I always thought it was overkill too and it's also a shame it ultimately forced out Hoskins. That said the Phillies still need an outfield bat. It's just that Castellanos was never a great one (and was supposed to move to LF to boot). And Dombrowski also overpaid him for past performance and out of personally overrating him based on their history (or his feeling about Castellanos's leadership/character). But there has not, and still isn't, a homegrown corner OF to fill what's still a bit of a hole (nor a 1B, if Harper went back to RF).

They did well in 2022 with Nick essentially being a non-contributor and then the same in 2023 with the likes of Cave and Rojas (though he obviously hit in the regular season). But I don't think they could afford to have Marsh in LF and a struggling Rojas in CF and a regressing Nick in RF. This is something they will have to deal with next season while making smaller upgrades this year.

But I wouldn't say there are actually "budget woes." We wouldn't actually want them to sign a veteran OF to a multi-year deal if Nick wasn't here. It will just be a shame if and when they have to give up a prospect to help offload Nick, even if there's a return

And I don't think they would want three $30 million starting pitchers regardless of what they are spending on position players. If Yamamoto was very interested in them they could figure it out for one year and then they'd have the luxury of lowballing Wheeler or letting him go. But like you say, I don't think they really want to (and he's more of a sure thing than Yamamoto, albeit only for 2-3 years whereas if Yamamoto works out he's got many more years ahead of him).

[Austinfan]

Odds are both Jersey Shore and Clearwater will be very good prospect laden teams this summer, but that still leaves a 2 year gap before prospects arrive in numbers. I think their strategy is to stand pat with what they have, patch the pen, and then phase out veterans in 2026 and 2027. They won't keep Bohm down the road, either Miller takes his job or Rincon or another SS push Turner to 3B in 2026/2027. Abel will probably start in Philly after the all star break in 2024, Painter mid-season 2025, and so on. Crawford in the OF in 2026.

They'll have to risk a couple veterans falling off the cliff the next two years but given their budget and the thresholds doubt they can afford to buy a $25M replacement for Castellanos if he falters again.

[zambonir]

No but they can afford to buy a $10 million patch while picking up $10 million of his deal. Or, just carrying him as more of a 3-400 AB player if necessary, so long as the bat still has its moments. Schwarber could probably start sitting against LHP in 2025 (his last year) too.

If Marsh is for real and Rojas hits enough to be a 2-3 WAR player they are in a good shape. If not one of Crawford or Rojas could still be traded (and maybe will need to be anyway, if they're both too good to be 4th OFs but not big enough bats for a corner.

[Jazzhead]

Honestly, this is now just another way that DD's decision to drop $100 mill on Castellanos after signing Schwarber for the same amount, comes back to really bite the Phillies in the tail. Schwarber has been a plus, but having both on the team, along with Harper and Hoskins (up to now) created an extremely inflexible and unbalanced roster as well causing budget woes.

I disagree with this; Castellanos provides right-handed power in a line-up that needs it, with proven ability to drive in 100 runs. While he is not a plus defender, he catches all the balls he gets to and his "inflexibility" is less of an issue now that Harper has committed to play first. I think some folks are down on Castellanos because of recency bias - he was clearly a non-factor in the NLCS - but he's a professional hitter who looks darn good in the 7-hole.

[BostonRoss]

I don't think there's anybody who believes the Castellanos signing was a good move, and most people didn't think so at the time it happened. He is a worse hitter than Schwarber and Hoskins, and signing him ensured that there would be at least three bad fielders between the OF and 1B (at least until Hoskins got hurt). The Phillies offense did need to be improved, but a lesser player who could play the OF decently and who didn't command such a long expensive contract would have been a much better choice.

Edit: Besides Jazzhead, who was posting as I was writing

[Callison]

Well, the Ohtani log jam finally burst, so maybe the hot stove will actually heat up a little. With so much serious talent out there, I sure hope the Phils get a piece of it. A big piece.

Surprised to hear Austin predict the rooks will overtake Bohm. I kinda like Bohm. Though I really dislike him at cleanup. He hit damn well at #2, but that's taken. Looks pretty steady at 3B.

After the way Castellanos ended the season, it was foolish to think he might be tradable. Could have been just rumors, Hate to think the Phils' braintrust couldn't see that. IMHO, he's streaky at the plate. No doubt Long will be deep into analytics to fine tune Castellanos off season. IMHO, Castellanos and Rojas are the biggest challenges before Long.

[andyb]

Odds are both Jersey Shore and Clearwater will be very good prospect laden teams this summer, but that still leaves a 2 year gap before prospects arrive in numbers.

What odds? It is still a below average system. Jersey Shore and Clearwater might have better prospects than AA and AAA, but what evidence is there to suggest they are very good. Average at best compared to the rest of the league for talent from most evaluations. DSL and Clearwater were good teams, but also not especially young last year (about league average). And Crawford may very well be at Reading most of the year.

[zambonir]

So far, with both seasons totalled up, Castellanos is a flop for his salary and WAR. Recency bias is actually his friend since he was worse in Year 1! They gave him a contract off of one 3.4 WAR season despite his age and fielding issues. Hopefully he can still be a plus player at the plate (112 OPS+ last year) but that - nor a 7 hitter - is not what you pay $100 million for. If it had just been a three-year deal with an option would be less egregious.

Gelb's mailbag basically said Yamamoto isn't really on the table for the Phillies post-Nola. Also reemphasized that the FA OF will be someone who can play all three OF spots. Nobody's getting signed who makes more than high seven figures (or perhaps barely eight). One OF, one 8th inning relief option.

[andyb]

The team does need right-handed power a bit more but that is partially due to letting Hoskins go. If we did not have Castellanos I have no doubt they would have moved Harper back to the OF and kept Hoskins.

Bohm has also been a bit of a disappointment in terms of power. He improved a bit, but really does not look like he'll ever be a huge power threat.

[zambonir]

Source tells me that a group of Phillies personnel and management are meeting today with the biggest free agent pitcher out there on the market Yoshinobu Yamamoto pic.twitter.com/Xbx9aJ3oii

— John Clark ( @JClarkNBCS ) December 14, 2023

[bkox]

Phillies will sign him for a $1 with $200M deferred until 2060.

[zambonir]

Wonder how Ian Snell feels about that description.

[andyb]

Simply because of age, Yamamoto is the biggest free agent out there. Snell is not going the get 9 years and it looks like Yamamoto will. Guessing it will be a risky deal for a 5'10" pitcher.

Can''t really believe the Phillies are serious, though maybe this is the plan to not have to resign Wheeler for the same AAV if he walks in a year.

[BostonRoss]

I think Yamamoto is kind of comparable to Yu Darvish, who was about the same age when he came to MLB and had dominated Japanese baseball for several years. Darvish put up 19 WAR in his first five years (compared to about 23 for Aaron Nola in his age 25-29 years). Darvish has accumulated about 13 WAR in the 5+ years since.

Yamamoto might be better or rose than Darvish, but what's 32 WAR over 10 years worth as a starting pitcher?

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

It might be that the Phillies don't plan to sign Wheeler. He has many innings on his arm; how long will he be this effective? Perhaps the Phillies see an opportunity to acquire a potential superstar who could help this team for far longer than Wheeler.

[David_Criss]

Yamamoto

Yamamoto is exciting. How does a 5'10" frame translate to MLB? Most colleges won't scholarship a pitcher under 6 feet. If the Phillies sign him, is Sanchez or Walker part of a trade package??????

[ahb]

Who cares what Snell thinks? Yamamoto is clearly the more valuable option.

[ahb]

If the choice is signing Yamamoto or resigning Wheeler, I’ll take Yamamoto any day.

Wheeler has been an absolute stud but he’s 33. I’d rather spend the money on the 25 year old with massive upside, even if there is some risk.

Plus, we’d get one year of both of them, which would be huge.