Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[Chris23]

I think bullpen as middle reliever is fine. But I suspect he's in the rotation to start the season due to Suarez's customary late start.

[zambonir]

Well, right now he's in the rotation even if Suarez is ready go on Day 3.

I think that while it's true you can never have enough pitching, you also don't need quite as much from your 4-5-6-7 pitchers as you think you do. Walker way outperformed (even if he was also overpaid) as a 4. And while Falter was obviously not good enough to stick as a 5 he was still a bit of an outlier in that they lost so many of his starts. Of course the team wasn't scoring runs in the first two months either.

I'm sure they'll bring some AAAA arms and potential swingmen in on minor league deals. The only real question is whether to sign a Strahm type or a shorter-burst late-inning type as the big bullpen signing.

But it's also very early! A trade still very possible though I bet it's for an OF rather than either kind of pitcher. Trade deadline or Abel to complete that puzzle in August, if they don't get Yamamoto.

[bkox]

Kinda surprised how people seem to be against Sanchez being in the rotation or even the MLB. While I think Sanchez isnt as good as he showed in 2023, I think hes earned the right to be in the rotation to start the season.

[allentown]

I don't see bullpen games as a plus.

[Chris23]

It does feel like roles have changed in recent years (and not for the better). What used to be a long reliever is now your #5 starter who goes 3-4 innings, while your #1's are considered successful if they go 6 innings.

[zambonir]

I don't see bullpen games as a plus.

I don't either but that just means you need starting depth, not a six-man rotation. Like Chris said 5th (and definitely 6th) starters are de facto bullpen games anyway. If the Phillies sign Yamomoto, great, trade someone or move Sanchez to the bullpen. If not, they aren't likely to sign a starter who is better than Sanchez or worthy of being part of a six-man rotation (in fact any FA who agrees to that up front is probably not a great FA to begin with).

[zambonir]

Feinsand (just a prediction/suggestion column):

Philadelphia Phillies: Jordan Hicks, RHP
The Phillies seem unlikely to pursue Josh Hader to fill their late-inning bullpen need, as the lefty is expected to command the largest deal ever for a reliever. Hicks possesses an elite fastball – the pitch averaged 100.1 mph last season – and he ranked in the top 20% of the league in ground-ball rate (96th percentile), average exit velocity (89th) and strikeout percentage (83rd). He would fit in nicely with Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado in the back end of Philly’s bullpen.

https://www.mlb.com/news/free-agent-fit-for-every-mlb-team-2023?partnerId=zh-20231121-1096410-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20231121-1096410-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=KjFs%2BDhzOMufwSrXre0iwD38GwBsrT4lgTUxr8cjejgbszs6p47bdI0UOchahO9B&bt_ts=1700576065205

[allentown]

He walks too many, but he looks like a good addition.

[Austinfan]

What is the problem with Sanchez? Unless he regresses, he's a bon fide ML starter, he started 18 games which is a decent sample. He has room to add a little to his 2 seamer (92.3 v 93.2 last season), his change up is plus plus and his slider is decent. They might want him to add a 4 seamer as a show me pitch at the top of the zone, otherwise he's solid as a 5-6 inning pitcher who can go twice through a lineup and a 3rd time on good days.

[andyb]

There is no problem with Sanchez. The issue is generally below average stuff apart from the change and wondering if what he did is sustainable. He is better than Bailey Falter, but is he really any good? Probably 50-50 he regresses with more exposure.

[phillychuck]

He could really use another effective pitch. Basically sinker/change now, although his slider was better last year than it ever had been (at least it had positive run value). Love to see him add a four-seam fastball at the top of the zone in about 10% of his pitches, or sharpen up the slider more.

[Aquapong]

Jung Hoo Lee is going to be posted soon from the KBO. I’ve got to imagine the Phils would at least do their due diligence on him. Heyman posited a $50 mil/5 year contract. Gotta figure a posting fee though too. Lefty bat and possibly would stick in CF. Haven’t read about his arm if he’s able to do RF or not.

O’ve been looking around the league for players with contracts to trade somewhat directly for Castellanos or Walker, but haven’t come up with any. More teams making the playoffs kind of puts a damper on teams wanting to shed players for simply cost savings. I have a feeling that if we trade either one, we’re going to be eating 50% of their cost to get it done. I see a home in Boston for Castellanos, wearing out the green monster.

[andyb]

I still think they go cheap platoon bat in the outfield unless they can manage to trade Casty. An expensive bat that takes away playing time from Marsh just does not make sense if they still feel they want Rojas to claim the CF job. You don't sign a free agent for 5 years much less 3 if you think that will happen in 2024 or 2025.

[schillingfan]

Rather than six man rotation if bullpen games, I would rather see shorter starts in April so they build up to 100 pitches over a longer time. Pitchers run out of gas more suddenly in April.

[xogfog]

In Jim Bowden's mailbag chat on the Athletic, he was asked who the Phillies should get to be a RH platoon bat and he suggested Whit Merrifield. He would make sense, though might be on the pricier side for a platoon. He's 34, but still has good speed, is a good all around player and even has some positional flexibility. Might be at the stage of his career where he might be willing to take a little less to play for a winner...

[Aquapong]

Merrifield would be an ok addition. I wonder if he’s looking to start full time though. His stats put him at .695 and 700 OPS against lefties and righties. Sosa hits lefties better than Merrifield. I’d prefer someone else.

[zambonir]

Yeah I think they need pure power out of a RHB. Pache could probably do just as well as a part-time LF facing only LHP.

But it all still really depends whether they are looking for a true platoon bat (with Marsh) or a starting LF (with Rojas in CF). Merrifield doesn't seem like either though. His flexibility would be an asset for some teams but Phillies don't really need a guy to play 2B (or a RHB to play 3B).

[andyb]

Not sure the bat needs to be right-handed either. There is no guarantee Rojas will win regular playing time against RHP so there may be more playing time on the long side of a platoon. And I am actually OK with Weston Wilson as the last guy on the bench capable of a little power too.

[zambonir]

I think if Rojas is in MLB he's going to play at least 75% of the time. He'll be learning how to hit RHP (and struggling against them) on the job but his defense will more than make up for it, especially when every game isn't must-win. If he's in MLB, he has to pick up where he left off last year (in the regular season) and adjust/improve. If they think that's too big an ask, he'll be in Allentown. I just figure it's going to be obvious what the plan is by who they sign. Certainly if it's Weston Wilson in the mix/still on the 40 or some guy who got non-tendered (like Senzel) or even Merrifield for that matter, that means Rojas is the CF. Whereas if they sign someone with the salary and track record to hit both lefties and righties and play 75% of time, Marsh is the CF. In the latter case they could still go with a LHB, Pache off the bench, and Rojas in waiting.

[zambonir]

Forget what I was looking for back before Nola got re-signed, but... funny.