Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

andyb 2023-11-27 17:45:23 UTC #654

Hard throwing, lack of command, minor league deal. Rinse and repeat.

EDmuch 2023-11-27 17:57:04 UTC #655

I gotta admit, I am able to restrain my enthusiasm on this one.

zambonir 2023-11-27 18:03:16 UTC #656

Was he much of a factor for Arizona in the playoffs or was he one of the guys who fell by the wayside?

Nothing wrong with the signing, buy low is always a good idea on relief pitching. But hard to see a fringe guy without options locking down a spot as things currently stand. He would all but have to beat out Kerkering, or replace Covey which I doubt is the role they have in mind for him). Of course the 40 will change over the next two weeks as well as the next three months.

andyb 2023-11-27 18:07:02 UTC #657

No postseason appearances last year for AZ.

He is just depth with raw stuff that has an upside. They'll get one chance to recall him since it is a minor league deal and he has no options, but really he is probably 50-50 to make a minor league team depending on the mix of arms they bring to Spring Training anyway. A no risk signing costing only whatever cash they needed to seal the deal.

Chris23 2023-11-27 18:07:33 UTC #658

There's also Yunior Marte, who can give you some innings in the right role.

Callison 2023-11-27 18:15:39 UTC #659

Backup catcher is one place the Phils are gonna save. Stubbs is scrappy and can handle the rotation. Sure, it'd be great to have a backup catcher that can hit .275, but the Phils have chosen an excellent place to save money.

Similarly, they save by doubling down on Covey and Cave. The Phils tend to fall in love with certain players and just hang with them, like these two, lugging around this great potential. All season I expected Cave to show some hitting skills. He got chance after chance and did nearly nothing. If these two players disappeared, it would leave room for NEW projects, but nooooooooo.

Yamamoto is THE prize FA out there now that Ohtani is only a DH next season and whether or not he will ever be a SP again is a guess. I don't know what the Phils have to do to sign him, but if I were DD, I would be in it to win it with Yamamoto. I would be willing to require the team to learn basic Japanese if it would make a difference. I would relocate a branch of his favorite restaurant to Philly. I would move his three best friends to Philly. And more. SIgn him and the OF will take care of itself.

Schwarber loves Philly and most of the Phils fans love him back but most importantly Big Rob really loves him. He's going nowhere. Not even for $ heavy Trout. I doubt Trout is coming to Philly because of age and injuries and cost.

I would love to see the Phils sign Hader, not only to replace Kimbrel but also to take him from the Rangers, who lost a bunch of games because of crap relief pitching and are all in after him. Likely a variable if the Phils don't sign Yamamoto.

IMHO, Sanchez looks like he could settle into #5 in the rotation. PC thinks he could improve by getting a better high fastball, but I think he needs to use his fastball only to make a perfect pitch and not care when it misses.

Rojas knows what he has to do to make the team. The way he closed out the regular season gives me hope that he's capable. DO IT, JOHAN!!!

zambonir 2023-11-27 18:20:31 UTC #660

Right, Yunior has options and so do Brogdon and Soto and Kerkering (and Nelson) but they could use another guy (at least) to be in that rotating spot. Ruiz's upside would be Vasquez or Hoffman, both of whom essentially made the team because the Phillies had no choice (and both of whom were decent though Vasquez's time eventually expired).

In terms of both money and roster space I'm not seeing a major relief pitcher signing unless they move on from Soto.

I'll be surprised if Cave is on the Opening Day roster, but it all still depends on any other OF/bench moves. Covey's also no sure thing. They are both candidates to sneak through waivers as well.

julio 2023-11-27 18:22:44 UTC #661

I don't get this. To "take him from the Rangers"? Who gives a crap about the Rangers?

For the record, I'm not interested. Forfeit two more draft picks, and another $1 million in international bonus pool (that's something like 20% of the pool)? For a reliever? Any reliever? No thank you.

zambonir 2023-11-27 18:26:48 UTC #662

They are not going to touch Hader, and probably not anyone less punitive (financially or comp-wise) on a two-year deal unless it's someone making more like $8 million not $12 million. Kimbrel made 10 last year and is expected to get more this time.

andyb 2023-11-27 18:32:41 UTC #663

I would not be surprised if they just gave Kimbrel's money to a reliable middle relief arm like Hector Neris. They will add somebody in the bullpen. Just don't expect it to be a closer necessarily. There are lots of financial incentives to just hope that Kerkering grows into the job. Plus Alvarado and Dominguez still are potential closers if healthy.

zambonir 2023-11-27 18:47:00 UTC #664

I feel like Hector is one of the guys who can get a two-year deal but can he get $11-12 (he declined an $8.5 option)?

It just seems like cap-wise, unless they sign Yamamoto and blow past the threshold anyway, they have to pick between either a later-inning reliever or higher-caliber LF, but not both.

Agreed that on paper, Seranthony remains an 8/9 arm, Kerkering needs to become one, and Hoffman and Strahm are also both a lot better than what we used to think of as "middle" relievers (especially with their ability to go more than one inning, pitch with men on base and in Strahm's case, face either type of batter regularly).

andyb 2023-11-27 18:50:38 UTC #665

It will be interesting to see how Hoffman's arm bounces back since this is year one of a mid career velocity increase. He is in the late inning mix if it does, but I also kind of think it is 50-50 he might lose a little.

Callison 2023-11-27 19:50:17 UTC #666

They're WS Champs and their one weakness is closer. I don't want these guys to get any stronger. They are the top competition in MLB and so threaten the Phils. That is why I care. A long shot, no doubt, but the Phils pen is missing a big piece and he may look more attractive as the FAs sign here and there.

I feel similarly about taking Yamamoto from the Mets and everybody else.

andyb 2023-11-27 19:57:12 UTC #667

But the Phillies bullpen was not really missing a big piece. They were 3rd in WAR and 7th in ERA out of 30 last year. It was a pretty good bullpen and slotting Kerkering in for Kimbrel alone could be a plus for the future.

Investing large amounts in a closer really do not make sense here. I am more concerned about innings and volume as every year we seem to get a bit less from our starters cumulatively. The bullpen though is just not the thing to spend draft picks and international slots on just to get an older guy who is good but not much better than what you already have.

zambonir 2023-11-27 20:30:15 UTC #668

Always better to watch a guy turn into a closer, as was the case for the Rangers (even if his last inning wasn't even a save situation) than watch a "proven" closer fail (as both Phillies and Arizona fans had to experience).

Not wanting the Mets to get Yamamoto is understandable, they aren't even going to be competitive next year probably but he's a long-term play.

What I'm enjoying right now is how much pressure there is on the Braves and Dodgers to give up too much either in trade or by signing Snell. But throw in the Yankees and the Mets and it's still going to be hard for the Phillies to win the Yamamoto bidding war.

Heck, if anything I'm rooting for the Mets to continue spending more money than the Phillies - and regretting it.

Philsmania 2023-11-27 22:57:16 UTC #669

The Astros won a WS in 2017 with a crumbling Ken Giles as their closer. Speaking of Giles, he's a free agent. Might he be worth a look? Uh, never mind, I misread his baseball-reference line. He didn't pitch in MLB in 2023 and was cut by the Dodgers after getting hit hard in AAA. I guess he's reached the end of the road, except maybe for a MiL contract/invitation to camp flier.

andyb 2023-11-27 23:01:22 UTC #670

Hasn't averaged 95 mph since 2019. Sad to say but guys like him are drafted for velocity and when they lose it they just don't have the command to be a good pitcher any more. Kimbrel had better command so is a bit different, but even Kimbrel had issues at 94/95 compared to 96/97.

zambonir 2023-11-27 23:13:48 UTC #671

When it comes to the question of whether you need a closer to get the most important outs in the WS, managers have been answering "no" - by using their starters - for a quite a while now. Kimbrel being one of the ones who didn't get the nod in Boston which is why he wanted so badly to be a closer this post-season. Of course his meltdowns happened in non-closing innings both times. And unfortunately the Phillies never got a chance to let anyone get a big save in Games 6 or 7 of the NLCS.

Squire 2023-11-29 14:18:53 UTC #672

For what its worth, BA has as of now 36 names on their Rule 5 preview and not one Phillies guy is mentioned.

andyb 2023-11-29 15:04:52 UTC #673

Gelb article on OF options. Players they seem to be looking at:

"Free agents Kiké Hernández, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Whit Merrifield and Nick Senzel fit that mold. There are more traditional righty-hitting outfielders such as Harrison Bader, Michael A. Taylor and Adam Duvall who could complement Marsh and Rojas — but those free agents might find more guaranteed playing time elsewhere."

Article also talks about the need to play CF. I actually don't see that and would rather get an offensive leaning bat. The above players are probably not better than Marsh in CF and if Rojas needs minor league time we still have Pache to play a little CF. To me that means getting a bat with some improvement over Cave and Pache.