Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[andyb]

Garrett Stubbs' chances of making the team just improved:

Phillies catcher Rafael Marchan was given one more option year by MLB, so he’s not out of options. Helps a bit with roster flexibility.

— Corey Seidman ( @CSeidmanNBCS ) November 20, 2023

Now they can string along both of them in the backup slot for the year. It does not really matter dollar-wise who wins the job.

[zambonir]

But bad news for Austin Nola

[zambonir]

Well, Dombrowski tackled this today. Lauber also notes that Cot's already projects the Phillies so close to the next tax bracket (254, and it's 257) that they couldn't really afford another OF of any note (let alone Yamamoto) without other moves.

Dombrowski reiterated that the Phillies “hope” Johan Rojas will seize the job in spring training. But he also pushed back against the notion that the Phillies must acquire an outfielder in case Rojas, an elite defender but work-in-progress hitter, struggles in the Grapefruit League.

“It’s hard because if you go out and get an established left fielder or center fielder, one or the other, you then block Rojas from making the team,” Dombrowski said. “Because [Brandon] Marsh is going to be out there, [Nick] Castellanos is going to be out there. Rojas is not going to be just a part-time, periodic player.”

Pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto is officially on the MLB market, and the Phillies are...

[zambonir]

It's pretty amazing that Nola wanted to just get it done early. Speculation now is that all the other pitchers will wait for Yamamoto to set the market, especially if they're looking to sign with a team who misses out on him. He doesn't have to use the full 45 days of course.

[LoneStarPhan]

Kudos to DD for getting Nola signed. Clearly filled a need that might not have been filled as well if Nola had gone elsewhere. They will probably need eight or more starters at some point in the season. Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Walker, and Sanchez are the initial starters as of now. Nelson may end up at AAA as starter in reserve while we hope Abel and/or others step up and pitch well in AAA and AA and are ready for a call up later in the season. Can they afford another starting pitcher added to the opening five? We will see. There will almost certainly be a couple ML experienced pitchers signed to minor league contracts.

It also seems they want to add an experienced reliever or two and another outfielder. At least, that is what I am reading.

Can they afford to add much more payroll? But then, it’s not my money.

[zambonir]

Right now (based on the numbers mentioned above) it really seems like they can't add more money and reliever/OF would be one or the other. But there could still be some trades or guys being cut loose, and even minor league vet type signings could make $4 million. My guess is they will get another Strahm type reliever and the OF signing will be pretty modest. But who knows? If they really see a scenario where they sign Yamamoto that means they could see almost any other scenario too.

They can afford just about anything, financially. But "Cohen tax" costs you in the draft (and even more so if they were to still sign a QO FA in future years).

[andyb]

We are about $24 million under the 3rd tier of the luxury tax which has the draft pick penalty. Assume we definitely stay under that. Whether we are under the 2nd tier ($4 million more) is a different question and that is only money.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I guess they only get to Tier 3 if they went crazy (Yamamoto or Hader) but they could get pretty close just with a late-inning reliever (like Kimbrel) and an OF (like Pham, who wound up at $8 million with his PA incentives last year coming off a poor 2022). They almost have to go over the 2nd threshold.

[Aquapong]

Hopefully the Phils are shopping Schwarber, Castellanos, and Walker hard. The first isn’t a good enough DH only player at the price we’re paying him. The other two were bad signings to begin with. Maybe another team has a need and has a player that could fill a RP or LF role for us.

[zambonir]

I can't really agree, Schwarber is an excellent DH. He got off to a slow start and of course should not have been in LF but he still wound up being the team's third-most productive hitter.

And Walker is a perfectly good 4th starter who was more than that for portions of the season, especially when the rotation had all sorts of other problems in the first half of the season. That he fell behind Sanchez in the playoffs doesn't mean he can't still be better again.

Taijuan Walker pitched the 34th most innings in baseball with right at league average run prevention, that was worth 2-3 WAR. He was the 4th or 5th starter on a postseason team, in the postseason you functionally use 3 starters and Sánchez was just better than him. https://t.co/pRuKOfAt22

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) November 20, 2023

Casty's a bigger problem given both his skill set (for one thing he shouldn't be in the field either) and longer contract than Schwarbs. But if you are right about any/all of them, they are basically untradeable unless it's for another team's underperforming/overpaid player. And the Phillies would need better players to replace them. That could happen with Yamamoto, but not an OF (as even most of the available free agents aren't that much better).

[BostonRoss]

I don't think "addition by subtraction" is a useful concept. Saying the Phillies should trade someone isn't sufficient without considering what the return would be and who would take their place. What would you expect to get in return for these players? How much of their salaries would you expect the Phillies to pay? Who would take their positions? In the case of these three guys, I think the trade return would be minimal, unless the Phillies took on most of their salaries, in which case they would be looking at regulars jobs for people like Cave, Lorenzen, and Pache. Would that make the team better?

[zambonir]

Interesting, reports that Nola got a no-trade clause turned out to be incorrect, if ultimately moot (he has a $1 million kicker in the meantime).

Aaron Nola, Phillies

$172,000,000/7

$24,571,428 - 2024-2030

$50K for All Star
$100K for Cy Young ($50K-2nd; $25K-3rd)
$50K for Gold Glove
$50K for LCS/MVP
$100K for WS/MVP

Pus: $1M if traded prior to end of 2025

*Acquires 10/5 veto rights in 2025

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) November 21, 2023

[zambonir]

Ok, I'll bite. Schwarber, Castellanos and Walker for Mike Trout. That should still leave them enough money to pay Yamamoto too.

But seriously. If you trade Walker, it's for almost nothing other than salary relief. If you can spend that on Yamamoto, hey, great. If you end up spending it on a Kyle Gibson type (i.e. Lorenzen) not necessarily.

Same deal with Nick, give him away at 50 cents on the dollar, but that $10 million annual savings wouldn't even get you Rhys Hoskins or an everyday corner OF.

[andyb]

The Phillies obviously have no intention of trading Nola in the next couple of years so that extra million trade kicker is really just language to get Nola to the 10/5 rights. There can't be more than a dozen players in baseball that have those rights but they are well-earned. Clayton Kershaw has earned the right to get not traded for instance.

On other matters, not sure why we really need to trade these contracts. It is only the owner's money and all we'd get by trading them is the freedom to spend that money on somebody else - not actual young prospects. I'm all for trading Casty for somebody younger, but it just does not seem we could deal for anybody both younger and better. Walker is a 4th starter we overpaid slightly for. But we also got one of the best 4th starter production numbers in the league. How many other teams got 2.5 WAR out of their 4th starter. We got more WAR out of Walker than we got from either Nola or Suarez or Sanchez.

Staying healthy and giving us 170+ innings is a real skill.

[Chris23]

If I'm being honest, I'll be more at ease if Sanchez started the season in AAA as a sixth starter. Nelson, I suppose, is fine as depth but I think it's foolish to go into the season expecting some of the young guys to produce. Anything you get from Abel, McGarry, and others in 2024 should be considered a bonus.

So I'd like to see them bring in another solid rotation piece on a one-year deal. Clearly, they're available since the Cards were able to sign two of them this week. Also, add a few non-roster invitees and hope one of them sticks.

[allentown]

I agree. We still need another starting pitcher. I'd leave Sanchez in Philly and begin the season with a 6-man rotation so that our SP remain fresher throughout the season and hopefully through the playoffs. The rumors say we are still in on Yamamoto. I hope DD signs him. One key reason for the Phillies faltering in the last golden age was ownerships refusal, over a one-year, less than 10 mill budget over-run, to let RAJ go ahead with his 3-aces plan. Wheeler/Nola/Yamamoto to lead our staff sets us up in great shape for the playoffs (and the regular season). It also bridges us beyond 2024 if DD isn't able to extend Wheeler on a decent contract.

[Aquapong]

I think we’ve the fact that Philly is a place players want to be right now going for us. Maybe Wheeler would take a little less to finish his career with the same core group.

[andyb]

Sanchez is out of options so he is in the rotation or the bullpen. Or gone.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think there's going to be a six-man rotation. Wheeler doesn't like it and modern bullpen usage doesn't really allow for it. Heck, in the first month of the season sometimes the 5th starter doesn't even get that much work.

If they really did add another starter w/o making a trade Sanchez would either drop to the Covey role or be fully converted to a higher-leverage reliever.

I'm comfortable with him as the #5 - already an upgrade over last year's situation.

Still think it's a bit of a fantasy that the Phillies could win both the recruitment and the bidding war for Yamamoto but if they don't it doesn't mean they think they need someone else. He's more of longer-term play, with or without Wheeler.

[andyb]

The schedule probably allows for 5-day rests more than half the time. If they were really concerned about workload they could sprinkle in 10-15 bullpen games and allow the rotation to always get that extra day of rest.