Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Yamamoto mentioned again. I kind of don't believe they can get him, especially with the teams what whiffed on Nola going after him. But I think it's great that they make the play, perhaps laying the groundwork for the courting of other Japanese players in the future. And it's not like they couldn't afford it, even if it likely took them to the next CBT threshold (at least the posting fee doesn't count there).

The Phillies are still believed to be in the mix for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who will be posted this week by his Nippon Professional Baseball team, though additional pitching help would more likely come at the back of the rotation.

In crossing off their top priority — and four days before Thanksgiving, no less — the Phillies are expected to focus on recasting the bullpen, improving the bench, and adding a righty-hitting outfielder to compete with Johan Rojas in spring training or a left-handed hitter to share time with him in center field.

How the Phillies closed the seven-year, $172 million megadeal with Aaron Nola

[bkox]

and adding a righty-hitting outfielder to compete with Johan Rojas in spring training or a left-handed hitter to share time with him in center field.

This means they consider Marsh full time Left Field now?

[phillychuck]

I'd like to see them acquire a high OBP OF without a significant platoon split. Then Marsh/new OF/Rojas/other can share time creatively in CF and LF About 400-450 ABs for the main guys. We don't need no stinkin' regulars!!

[zambonir]

I think it's all pretty speculative right now. A good LHB who can play CF in tandem with Rojas (or Pache) as the strong end of a platoon is a lot harder to find than just letting Marsh do that while getting a good RHB for LF.

In, the end, agreed. Maybe Marsh gets 550 ABs but Rojas and the other guy only get 400.

I just think the whole notion of a spring training contest for LF and CF is overstated because who you sign will pre-determine the mix. The only real contest is probably between Pache and Rojas. If they want Rojas in AAA Pache is a good defensive and weak end platoon OF for a half-season. If Rojas starts in MLB Pache probably loses his spot to the free agent unless they did go LHB.

[andyb]

The Cuban pitcher they were looking at might be a decent fit for a flexible bullpen arm that has late inning potential or even starting potential once they get a look at him. Can't imagine they'll be in on Yamamoto now.

I can't imagine they are closing the door on Marsh in CF. It makes so much sense and will cost less to get a high OBP left-fielder as opposed to a CF. And our prospect depth is in CF (Rojas, Crawford) so we will hopefully have one of them there as Marsh ages a bit more into a LF regularly
.

The only real contest is probably between Pache and Rojas.

I am not sure Pache is in any sort of contest. He is the Rojas not ready option but he probably won't play much regardless. The quality of the OF bat we get will be telling, but maybe the biggest questions are really how much Marsh and Rojas play.

[gmwannabe]

Thoughts on extending wheeler? (not sure if this should be it's own thread). he is 33 and seems to be getting stronger. Scherzer is 39 and seems to still be pretty strong. Verlander is 40 and might be slipping. is wheeler a comp to them? a four year extension might be worth it.
gm

[zambonir]

Well, agreed but I don't think Rojas is really in a contest with anyone either. If they really intend to sign anyone of note to play LF, he has already lost the job and will either be a bench player (with no Pache) with Marsh as the primary CF or he'll be in AAA (with Pache in the meantime off the bench). And if they don't sign anyone of note, that means they decided to give him the job.

Or we're back to Jake Cave/Weston Wilson/Pache in LF. But whatever they do I don't really see a scenario where Rojas can earn or lose a job a Clearwater. They already know what he is and isn't and need to assemble the roster accordingly.

Would be nice if Wheeler took three years plus an option but the Phillies would probably just as soon give him five and a lower AAV anyway. If he only took three straight-up you'd definitely have to pay for that. Four years $120?

[julio]

I'd like to see them acquire a high OBP OF without a significant platoon split.

You mean a guy with no power to speak of? Because if you want a high OBP OF without a significant platoon split, and some pop in the bat…well, I’d like Bobby Abreu in his prime, too!

[fish]

Can't imagine they'll be in on Yamamoto now.

I agree- though it makes a whole lot of sense to bolster the rotation given the workload these long post season runs puts on Wheeler and Nola. Yamamoto- his stuff is just soooo good. Its hard to put a comp on- I thought maybe Oswalt, but his stuff is better than Oswalt.

[zambonir]

They seem to be pretty serious about Yamamoto though. No downside to due diligence and laying the groundwork for recruiting future Japanese players, especially since the new head of International has Asian experience.

Bryce Harper reportedly involved in Phillies recruitment pitch to Yoshinobu...

It's hard to imagine them winning a bidding war, but it's also hard to imagine money actually stopping them. If they did get him they could try to trade Walker, or perhaps tap the brakes on extending Wheeler. They could also probably call it a day and not bother expending any significant $ on the offense. Of course they could also just bust past the highest tax threshold (though there's a cost to that in draft pick punishment too).

[German41]

Just deal Walker if you can sign Yamamoto.

[zambonir]

For sure but you'd probably have to eat some $. It still might not fully solve the CBT issue. And you can't have too much pitching. Suarez isn't durable or a big innings-eater, and Sanchez is still hardly a sure thing. And then there's Walker's own flaws (but he did still win 15 games). If it happened might be better to let things play out until July and then see where Walker, Sanchez and Abel all stand.

For now it's a dream anyway. I wonder if Yamamoto's agent intends to use the full 45-day window.

[andyb]

But whatever they do I don't really see a scenario where Rojas can earn or lose a job a Clearwater. They already know what he is and isn't and need to assemble the roster accordingly.

That is not really correct. They know Rojas's weaknesses but they also know he could make progress on them. Rojas is competing with himself and his own progress to win a job. Marsh just plays more if he doesn't win it in Clearwater.

[zambonir]

I mean I hear what you are saying, but they are either going to sign a RHB who isn't good enough to play regularly against RHP (which means Marsh is primary LF and Rojas is CF) or they are (which means Marsh is primary CF).

They can't put off that decision until Clearwater, and what's more, I don't see what Rojas could really do in spring training to change anything. He could put up a 1200 OPS and it won't mean anything more than what Cave, Sosa and Hall did last year.

No matter what he does (or shows the coaches privately) it's still going to be pretty much the same situation that already exists, that A) he's good enough to play in MLB now if they want, even w/ a light bat and B) it couldn't hurt if he spent more time in the minors.

[andyb]

They could easily sign somebody like Tommy Pham to a 400 AB platoon plus role. They have lots of options. Just don't think they will spend enough on somebody who clearly will play every day. They'll get a platoon bat who could play more if they play well.

[zambonir]

Yeah but that is functionally the starting LF. Pham had 481 PAs last year and 304 of them - 63% - were against RHP. That's actually more total PAs than Marsh had for the Phillies (472). Marsh would play CF every time Pham was in the line-up and nothing Rojas does in Clearwater could change that (nor would Pham sign with a team that didn't view him as a close to everyday player, though I realize you are just using him as an example).

Now, if you start Rojas in AAA and then your Pham-type signing is a bust, then he gets demoted to weak platoon player with Marsh and Rojas comes up full-time. But that's still not a spring training competition any more than there was one with Josh Harrison last March.

[andyb]

Now, if you start Rojas in AAA and then your Pham-type signing is a bust, then he gets demoted to weak platoon player with Marsh and Rojas comes up full-time.

So? The point of somebody like Pham (and it is useless to look up stats because the concept is "somebody like Pham") is to spend a modest sum of money for a plus bat that could play more if things like Rojas developing do not happen. The goal is to make the team better and that means putting somebody better than Cave or Pache into positions to get more at bats.

And also the goal is probably to not spend too much since Rojas and eventually Crawford are coming AND we probably can't deal Casty. Spend money on a short term outfielder now and the bullpen. Yariel Rodriguez would be an intriguing sign to a 3 year deal because he is young and looks to be a pretty certain high velocity reliever even if his ability to start is in question.

Rojas again is competing with himself. If he hits .150 in Spring Training he probably goes to AAA. If he hits .300 he makes the team and probably gets a chance to play most of the time. The variables are Rojas and the outfielder we sign.

[Austinfan]

Plus that LH hitter would also give you a bat on the bench when a LH starts against them, Phillies did not have a good bench last season in terms of reliable PHs from either side. Cave was a huge disappointment after tearing up AAA ball, same with Clemons. Hall would be perfect if he could play LF, but that is probably as bad as putting Schwarber out there.

They'll evaluate Rojas in ST, more about his approach to hitting than the actual results - that is, is he more selective, making high velocity contact, showing more pop. They'll also work on his approach to bunting, being able to bunt for base hits will not just help him get on base, but forces the IFs to play in.

[zambonir]

I'm all for upgrading over Cave or Pache or both but both of those things are separate from signing a RHB to play some LF, and from Rojas. And Pache is also fine if Rojas isn't on the big league team. Even Cave in not that terrible if he's purely a bench bat, as opposed to last year when he regularly started in LF (and even 1B) due to injuries and no better options. Clemens could also be that bench bat, with the ability to play 3B too.

Andy, you've been vocal about Rojas needing more time in AAA. Him hitting .300 in spring training would really change your mind?

[andyb]

It is not my mind he has to change, it is the Phillies. And I am just fine with Marsh playing CF and Pache backing him up and playing relatively little.

We need a left-fielder. We can platoon that spot with the 26th spot that might be a 4-corner guy. So is that Weston Wilson and a left-handed bat? Is that somebody like Tommy Pham and a left-handed corner bat? There are lots of things the Phillies can do. Whether Rojas starts or not is really not crucial. They just are not going to pencil him in for 600 AB regardless. He'd play more than Pache if he makes the team, but whether that happens is really pretty irrelevant to what happens in LF and the decisions that need to be made BEFORE Spring Training (i.e. Rojas could win a job and get more playing time, Marsh could show he can play every day, etc.). They are going to get some redundancy in the player they sign no matter what.