Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Well, in 2022 I think they just ran out of gas and into a clearly superior (106-win) opponent. Less so this time. But I also think it's just random/luck more than anything. All teams go through streaks (both good and bad) and get bad starts and unfortunate relief outings. Only one team avoids them in the very last series. The Dbacks were also exposed in the same way (partly couldn't keep beating superior-on-paper teams indefinitely, partly their luck ran out).

You can't really have it both ways, can ya? Winning 100-plus games has gotten a lot of teams nothing, but if you're "built for the post-season" where anything could happen, that includes the bad stuff too. Had Turner and Casty and Harper not been so incandescent to begin with we wouldn't even be talking about the fact that the switch got turned off.

It's also easy to say now that the Phillies might have gotten to the World Series if the line-up had just been a little deeper as well as more selective, and the bullpen a little better but that doesn't mean whatever Dombrowski does to upgrade the OF or replace Kimbrel will actually lead to that. If we are once again lamenting next year's team coming up small in a seven-game series it will have been a more successful post-season than we should probably reasonably expect (i.e they could easily drop back to the 2nd or 3rd wild card and lose in the first round, or finally fail to beat the Braves or the other top seed in the second round.

[Austinfan]

We should avoid the 2009-2011 mistake, of constantly doubling down and mortgaging the future instead of maintaining a solid team indefinitely and hoping the baseball Gods smile upon us one season. No matter how good a team you build on paper in April, it'll be a different team in October.

[andyb]

Guessing the AAV on a 2-year deal for Woodruff takes the Phillies out of the running for him. Nick Senzel is a little interesting to me too as the flexible 26th man on the roster if we got a left-handed bat for the OF. Given that his best position is 3B and he is right-handed like both Bohm and Sosa we'll probably look elsewhere.

MLB non-tender deadline: 10 most interesting players added to baseball's...

[Squire]

Bob Nightengale (USA Today) says the Phililes and Nola have made good progress and he is expected to re-sign.

[zambonir]

Haha this Bob Nightengale from two weeks ago?

GMs believe that the Phillies will let Nola walk, and will turn their attention to Blake Snell, who’s about to win his second Cy Young award.

He's often wrong so let's hope he's right.

Report: Talks between Phillies, Aaron Nola ‘gaining significant momentum’ –...

[Austinfan]

I suspect Nola's agent has quietly been talking to other teams and has a sense of what he can get in the market, and maybe it's injected some realism in his demands.

[fish]

We should avoid the 2009-2011 mistake, of constantly doubling down and mortgaging the future instead of maintaining a solid team indefinitely and hoping the baseball Gods smile upon us one season.

The mistake of 2009-2011 was that they stopped drafting well in 2004 and got next to nothing from international signings.

[Austinfan]

But part of that was the psychology of "we can buy and trade for what we need."
It took almost a decade of failure to make rebuilding the farm system and fixing their international scouting a priority.

[zambonir]

But they also couldn't buy everything they needed. The Lee trade was as much about money as getting back prospects (who all failed of course) and so was punting on Pence and letting Worth go . If they had spent to replace Pence and Vic and filled the holes left by Halladay and Lee's decline the night have contended longer. Everything they did squander was compounded by poor drafting and scouting (including most free agents) as well as the Howard contract.

So far they have been very balanced and keeping Nola was important too. We shall see how the next two years go.

[andyb]

There was a very intentional strategy to spend on the major league team in the 2009-2011 period at the expense of spending in the draft and internationally. Yes we stopped drafting well, but we also stopped spending money on flier picks that was a strategy available to every team in that period. Suggested slot values were very different than pool limits with penalties.

[allentown]

The Lee trade was as much about money as getting back prospects (who all failed of course) and so was punting on Pence and letting Worth go .

All 3 of those decisions were entirely about money. I fear while hoping that with Middleton in charge the Phillies won't gut the budget as they have done then and so many times after a successful period. Yes, a dropoff and at least a partial rebuild does become necessary and holding onto fading stars out of sentimentality is a loser's course, but the Phillies didn't spend on anything in those down periods. That's why so many organizations have a few bad years while we've had bad decades. Look at the Cots numbers. 2012 was the last year of trying to extend the last golden age, while counting on fading stars to provide attendance. Our salary cap number was $174.5 million that year. Although there was a blip up to $185 million in 2014, we were down to $103.1 million by 2016. That year Middleton became the managing partner. Although it took a while for team quality to improve, the budget moved quickly by 2019: about $119 million in both 2017 and 2018, $192 million in 2019, $207 million in 2020 ,$244 million in 2022, and 263.7 million last season.

[zambonir]

Middleton was the one who pushed for them to sign AJ Burnett; that just didn't work out (and wasn't enough when they were also putting the likes of Ben Revere and Juan Pierre into the OF. Of course Brown was also fading by then too).

Had they actually started rebuilding again that would have been okay too. But instead they doubled down on the core (and replaced Madson with Papelbon) but had no way to get better anything other than worse.

Can't imagine this team making the playoffs indefinitely and still hard to see what the next core looks like, but money does not seem to be an object in terms of either personal wealth or operating revenue. The real proof will come - perhaps soon in a few cases - when it's time to unload a few fading stars or pay a guy to sit on the bench (or be DFA'ed). Of course cheap young replacements also help you do that.

[bkox]

During the press conference when the Phillies signed Harper, didnt Harper say Middleton guaranteed him the Phillies would stay in the top 5 in payroll in MLB.

[zambonir]

Yeah something like that. Maybe even top three. But if I were Harper I wouldn't necessarily hold him to that. No shame in taking a year to reset if it benefits the bigger picture more than just continuing to throw money at again vets. And considerable shame if the Phillies have to do that every year because they haven't produced a single homegrown All-Star (which they still haven't since Nola).

I reckon they will extend Wheeler and also extend JT (Harper will definitely have influence there but it probably won't be a crazy deal). But hopefully they don't ever have to sign three $20 million+ position player FAs in a span of two seasons again any time soon.

[bkox]

And considerable shame if the Phillies have to do that every year because they haven't produced a single homegrown All-Star (which they still haven't since Nola).

Actually we did.. but we traded him away.. JP Crawford finished 16th in the AL MVP voting this season

[Dirk41]

Could we get Yandy Diaz from the Rays?

[zambonir]

Hasn't made an All-Star team yet though. Five of the current Phillies' starting nine have but they all came from other teams. Hopefully Stott will someday. Maybe Rojas too.

Rhys was certainly worthy but, tough position. Herrera was also an All-Star once but of course he didn't spend a day in the minors for the Phillies before that happened (only after).

[Lucky_Beagle]

Allstar selections don't mean much to me...Castellanos was an All Star this season and many people want him off the team. Lorenzen was an All star this season who wanted him starting October games? Some players are selected based upon past seasons and others are selected on sss stats. Some are selected because they happen to play on certain teams and hey mlb says someone has to go from their team.

[julio]

...and some are selected because their clubs organize ballot-stuffing (they all try, but some are more effective, have larger fan bases, etc.).

[zambonir]

For sure. But it's still somewhat illustrative of the Phillies' failure to develop homegrown players, as well as their habit of buying expensive free agents. Nobody's going to sit here and argue the Phillies had any homegrown players who deserved to make the All-Star team but didn't (Rhys aside, possibly). Conversely, Herrera made it mostly because the Phillies had to have one.

I think ballot-stuffing ended with,well, paper ballots. Some teams still have bigger fan bases - and national ones, for that matter - and more effective online marketing campaigns - but it's not the same factor (along with the fact that few members or the roster are actually selected by the fan vote anymore).

Meanwhile this says the Phillies are still interested in Yamamoto, but would otherwise look to sign another swingman type.

Source: Phillies agree to $172 million deal with Aaron Nola; still in play for...