Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

I was just responding to AF. If Crawford reaches his full potential he will certainly be the better player as Trout goes into full decline. But there is no guarantee Crawford even becomes a good major league player yet. Let alone a great one.

Either way if the Phillies did trade for Trout they wouldn't expect him to be very good towards the last year of the contract, and they certainly wouldn't be paying - or being taxed on - $35 million. Especially if someone good is included in the trade.

A trade that's never going to happen. But still a non-zero chance Abel or one of Crawford or Rojas does get traded in the next two years.

Trout makes no sense, in 2-3 years, Crawford could be the better player given Trout's injury history.

[Callison]

I get the point here, allentown.

OTOH, if Nola has a solid final game, the Phils are in the WS. One player.

And congrats for being the first to write (not just think) the Phils could sign Yamamoto and keep Nola. That's exciting enough for me.

[zambonir]

Pretty amazing you can win the CY while also leading MLB in both total walks and walk rate.

All five scouts picked Nola. The above is among the reasons for their preference, along with Nola's more consistent track records and history of pitching many more innings.

Who would you rather sign, Aaron Nola or Blake Snell? We asked scouts around...

[Lucky_Beagle]

I saw elsewhere Covey and Stubbs signed contracts. Can I assume no one on the list was non-tendered?

[Lucky_Beagle]

mlbtraderumors state Fleming was nontendered

[zambonir]

Cave signed too the others all tendered

[zambonir]

The Phillies made the following roster moves today:

Agreed to terms on a contract for the 2024 season with INF/OF Jake Cave, RHP Dylan Covey and C Garrett Stubbs

Tendered contracts to five arbitration-eligible players: INF Alec Bohm, RHP Jeff Hoffman, INF Edmundo Sosa, LHP…

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) November 18, 2023

[andyb]

Clearly the 3 of them signed for less than their arbitration prediction. Probably a plus for keeping Cave and Covey if they have to send them to AAA without options. If another team takes them they would save on the major league deal. Stubbs is likely major league minimum guaranteed which is better than a non-tender plus a minor league deal somewhere else.

Have to think it is 50-50 next Spring between Stubbs and Marchan and the extra cash gives the Phillies a little flexibility in their decision (and they don't really have a young upper level catcher to turn to).

And the Cave amount:

Jake Cave signed for $1M with the Phillies.

— Joel Sherman ( @Joelsherman1 ) November 18, 2023

[julio]

Dylan Covey signed a split contract with the Phillies that would pay him $850,000 in the majors.

— Joel Sherman ( @Joelsherman1 ) November 18, 2023

Garrett Stubbs signed for $850,000 ($400,000 guaranteed) with the Phillies.

— Joel Sherman ( @Joelsherman1 ) November 18, 2023

[zambonir]

I'm guessing the Covey contract pays him more than the normal 40-man minimum in AAA (a la Cave) to perhaps make it easier to get him through waivers (though that didn't work for the Orioles and Cave).

And what does that mean about Stubbs? That they can release him any time and not be on the hook for the $450M or does it become fully guaranteed once the season starts and that's just the normal situation.

Ah, answering my own question, the rules changed with this CBA. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/non-guaranteed-contract

A player on a split or Minor League contract will earn the prorated portion of his Major League salary for time spent on the Major League roster. Clubs can also sign players to non-guaranteed contracts but still place them on the 40-man roster. Those contracts become guaranteed upon the player making the Major League roster out of Spring Training, but he may also be cut prior to Opening Day. Players cut on or before the 16th day of Spring Training are owed 30 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon salary). A player cut between the 16th day and the end of Spring Training is owed 45 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon salary).

Per the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, arbitration-eligible players who settle with their teams on a salary for the subsequent season without going to a hearing will be eligible to receive full season termination pay, even if they are released prior to the start of the season (this rule will go into effect after the 2022 season). Previously, the salary for such players only became guaranteed if the player was on the Major League roster or injured list when the regular season began. Arbitration players who were cut before then would be owed either 30 or 45 days' worth of termination pay, depending on the point in Spring Training the player was released.

[Aquapong]

According to Cots, Stubbs still has an option. I don’t believe he has the service time to refuse the assignment. It was probably best to keep him in the org for another year.

[zambonir]

So he does!

My guess is he is still the Opening Day back-up catcher, but we shall see just how much they really value him in the clubhouse (or maybe they - the front office that is - don't at all). Also not necessarily bad for Marchan to get a few more months in AAA, he's had a lot of injuries. If they ever get serious about playing JT a little less the position should be upgraded (even if that upgrade is Marchan). But I doubt JT will dip below 130 starts even if he maybe should (last year it was 133, exact same number in 2022).

[Austinfan]

Ideally, you have a 3rd catcher who can play multiple positions and pinch hit, for late inning flexibility, that makes it much easier to keep three and reduce JT's work load. But while Marchan has played 1B in winter ball, don't think Stubbs has much position flexibility.

[zambonir]

Stubbs is capable of playing most positions I think, including 2B and 3B. Just not well enough (or good enough at the plate to PH regularly). But you really can't carry three catcher in this day and age. Ideally, this team would also have 10 starts at DH for JT, but they probably don't. The teams that do carry three catchers usually use one as their primary DH (or another spot) so only one is actually taking a bench spot.

[andyb]

According to Cots, Stubbs still has an option. I don’t believe he has the service time to refuse the assignment. It was probably best to keep him in the org for another year.

Which is why this is a good move. We let Marchan and Stubbs compete for the job. If Marchan wins then Stubbs goes to AAA, If Stubbs wins we might lose Marchan but we owe him no money. Nice way for the Phillies to hedge their bets.

[Les229]

I am aware of Schwarber's OBP but not all of the swing for the fences guys are that productive. I am not just talking about the post season. I didn't miss a Phillies from the first spring training game to the last playoff game. The fact that the stranded so many baserunners speaks to the swing for the fences attitude. There were many times that a couple of bloop singles to the opposite field would have won a game.

.

[allentown]

It's not easy to switch between trying to hit HRs and trying to loop one to the opposite field, especially when facing pitchers who can throw 95+ and especially when you're 30 and your swing is beginning to slow down. The Phillies wanted HRs. They knew the type of hitter Schwarber was when they signed him. They got 104 RBIs, 108 R, and a 122 OPS+ from him this past year to go along with the 47 HR. He did what he was signed to do and his output is consistent with his career #s. I wouldn't advise continuing to bat him first in the lineup, but he and his manager seem happy with that. Kyle has earned his contract.

[zambonir]

Matt posted that rumor is Marchan's getting an extra options year.

[zambonir]

I was kind of joking about the stranded baserunners though. I'm not gonna look it up but I doubt the Phillies were actually anything other than average when it came to LOB and RISP. Not amazing, and they did struggle with it early in the year, but overall, fine. Runs are runs and they scored the fourth-most in the NL.

I would like to see a little more small ball with the new rules, but I'm not sure there is one manager left in MLB who believes in "productive outs" or playing for one run. The one-run HR epidemic in the post-season was a fluke; when the failure came it's because they weren't hitting those either. And Schwarber actually did hit a few singles! At a higher rate than he did in the regular season I bet.

[Chris23]

I'm not concerned about the regular season. This offense will score enough to make the postseason, as long as the pitching holds up.

My concern is the postseason, where they seemingly go cold at the worst times. In 2022, up 2-1 in the WS, and up 2-0 and 3-2 in the 2023 NLCS.