Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[Callison]

the way we kicked the Braves six ways from Sunday and ruined their season was immensely gratifying.

I doubt there was a single Phils fan who didn't think that put the team in the WS. Bottalico said as much before the series. Best baseball they played all year, IMHO. The rivalry is huge, just got huger, and there is bad blood between the teams. I can hardly wait to see more of it next season. IMHO, the Braves are twice the team the DBs are, regardless of the playoffs.

No doubt we're all trying to be patient with the Hot Stove, but the team is about a player away from a WS championship and the moves DD makes will make or break it... and the Phils are threatened with the loss of a strong SP... so we're counting the seconds... listening to crickets...

[zambonir]

I don't think they have the money/tax threshold for that, unless you skip signing a reliever and bat. Dombrowski has also said just one SP though they could clearly use depth behind Sanchez.

Right after I posted that the PHLY podcast said (based on some report I am sure) Yamamoto prefers West Coast which is certainly nothing new.

[allentown]

but the team is about a player away from a WS

Except this is a meaningless statement. A WS is difficult to get to. The Braves and Dodgers were the best teams in the NL the past two seasons and neither of them got to the WS. Our 2008 team which won the WS was not as good as our 2009, 2010, or 2011 teams. A short series is unpredictable. Pitchers run out of steam in the post-season, hitters go cold in an instant, you run up against a team which either knows just how to beat you or makes the perfect mid-series corrections as the Diamondbacks did to us this year. No team is ever one player from a WS. 100+ win teams miss the WS all the time.

[Philsmania]

but the team is about a player away from a WS

Except this is a meaningless statement. A WS is difficult to get to. The Braves and Dodgers were the best teams in the NL the past two seasons and neither of them got to the WS. Our 2008 team which won the WS was not as good as our 2009, 2010, or 2011 teams. A short series is unpredictable. Pitchers run out of steam in the post-season, hitters go cold in an instant, you run up against a team which either knows just how to beat you or makes the perfect mid-series corrections as the Diamondbacks did to us this year. No team is ever one player from a WS. 100+ win teams miss the WS all the time.

Or, as I like to say, October baseball is a crapshoot.

See also the below article from 2018. In fifty-four years, going back to 1969, only fourteen teams which finished with the regular season's best record have won the WS (adding the 2018 Red Sox and the 2020 Dodgers to the article's list). Roughly 26%. And only seven best record teams have won in the twenty-nine seasons since wildcard play started. Roughly 24%.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/10/01/baseball-teams-best-record-win-world-series-red-sox#:~:text=Since%201969%2C%20only%2012%20teams,Reds%20have%20done%20so%20twice.

[Austinfan]

Yep. Which is why you don't throw all your eggs into one basket and rob the future for one shot at the brass ring.
Phillies have a solid but aging core, they have to focus on building organizational depth and stop thinking one signing can get them over the top. Often the key is a player you didn't expect, like Sanchez last year - without him do the Phillies make the playoffs?

[bkox]

like Sanchez last year - without him do the Phillies make the playoffs?

Surprisingly the Phillies were 8-11 in Sanchez starts. We made the playoffs by 6 games. So.. yeah most likely we would have made the playoffs.. unless you think that some other pitcher would have been like 1-18

[andyb]

I don't think they have the money/tax threshold for that, unless you skip signing a reliever and bat. Dombrowski has also said just one SP though they could clearly use depth behind Sanchez.

Yamamoto plus a $5-$10 million bat for LF is about equal to the cost of Nola and Hoskins last year. Posting fee is extra but that has no AAV effect. We really would not be looking at a much higher team salary level unless we do something crazy in the bullpen.

[zambonir]

And, we can use both Yamamoto and Nola.

Yeah but I was responding to Atown, sorry.

Yamamoto plus a $5-$10 million bat for LF is about equal to the cost of Nola and Hoskins last year.

[Chris23]

But what was our record in games started by Falter/Covey/bullpen before Sanchez?

If I recall, it was pretty bad.

[andyb]

We'll at least have Nelson as a 6th starter down in AAA this year. We will likely sign another AAAA type too to give Abel a little time to develop. It would not be that much of a leap to see some of Abel in the second half of the year. We definitely need to shore up the Nola spot with one of the top tier options, but beyond that I probably would not spend too much money.

[bkox]

But what was our record in games started by Falter/Covey/bullpen before Sanchez?

6-13 in games started by Strahm, Falter, Brogdon, Covey,

[zambonir]

And don't forget those four Michael Lorenzen starts they won (three losses).

[Austinfan]

It's not just his starts, but the burden taken off the rest of the pitching staff, you can burn out a bullpen with a dozen bad starts. And it would have been difficult to go with a 6 man rotation and extra rest for an extended stretch.

[xogfog]

Paywall, but for those that have ESPN+

Mike Trout to the Phillies? Why it makes sense -- and what that deal could look...

[zambonir]

Of course if Sanchez hadn't been so good the Phillies might have traded for an entirely different pitcher than Lorenzen, though that also might have cost them more, or not worked out.

They could probably do worse than to make Strahm a starter again if they wanted to, but they'd have to replace him in the pen too then.

I do kind of think they'll have to add something more than just fringe depth when you consider Suarez is always good for an injury and Walker is traditionally a second-half question mark (and not an innings-eater).

[zambonir]

The article doesn't even think it's gonna happen (other than, you never know). Saw another story yesterday that said Angels are definitely all-in as usual.

Would the Angels even trade Trout? Would the Phillies trade for him?

It's admittedly a far-fetched idea. For starters, during last week's general managers meetings, all indications from Los Angeles Angels GM Perry Minasian were that Trout won't be traded.

"Mike Trout's an Angel," Minasian told MLB Network. "We're excited to have Mike Trout. He's, if not the best, one of the best hitters to ever play the game and he's somebody that we love to be associated with. I go back to it again: Somebody who is going to help us win a lot of games."

[andyb]

I don't think the Phillies or Angels would really do that trade. Phillies probably want more of Trout's salary picked up and the Angels would need better prospects to save face in the deal after getting nothing for Ohtani. Just clearing money won't be enough.

So we'd probably be talking about a deal built around Abel and another good prospect, maybe even Crawford. Or 2 lottery prospects like Boyd and Rincones. With the Phillies only taking about $25 million of salary per year for Trout. We could certainly include Casty in the deal, but the Phillies are just not going to want to pay $35 million for his age 37 and 38 years (and the whole AAV).

[Austinfan]

Trout makes no sense, in 2-3 years, Crawford could be the better player given Trout's injury history.
And unless he plays 150 games at a high level, he's not going to move the needle - when was the last time Trout did that?

[zambonir]

I seriously doubt Crawford will ever be as good as Mike Trout, though it's certainly possible he is a better player than Mike Trout is in 2027.

But no: Trout's just not that interesting. It is outdated sentimental attachment to him at this point. Would sooner trade for Soto, or (in what would be a far more modest deal) someone like Arozarena.

I'm not sure he would even enjoy playing for the Phillies, even though he could comfortably be in the background compared to Bryce.

Obviously if there is a perfect storm of A) the Angels deciding to trade him B) Trout invoking his no-trade to say he only wants to go to Philadelphia and C) a Phillies-favorable combination of what they give up and the $, you do it. But I just don't see it really happening in the next 18 months.

[allentown]

I seriously doubt Crawford will ever be as good as Mike Trout, though it's certainly possible he is a better player than Mike Trout is in 2027.

What does this mean? 2027 will be one of the last 4 seasons for which Trout is due $35 million, so it would be a very big deal if he was less good than Crawford over those 4 seasons, as Crawford would be a lot cheaper. Nobody expects Crawford to start with the Phillies in 2024 or 2025, so you're talking about just 2026 here.

I fully accept that Crawford will never be as good as Trout has been.