Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[allentown]

I certainly count 2 successes. The Phillies went deep in consecutive seasons that's a plus. As with the Eagles beating Dallas twice in a season, it is extra special to be responsible for the Braves early elimination two years in a row. Makes it all good.

[julio]

I don’t understand how any longtime Phillies fan could consider 2022 or 2023 “failed” seasons.

[zambonir]

I do not consider them failures at all, but there seems to be a greater level of angst/impatience about getting back to/winning the World Series, and what Dombrowski is going to do to make it happen. Whereas before I guess there was just - resignation? Or hope that felt far-fetched?

I guess it is also just eagerness and enthusiasm. I would say this is is the first season there hasn't been even one suggestion here of taking a step back for a year/not being all in, even if people would still go nuts should Dombrowski trade one of the pitchers or CFs. Two years ago if we'd known Nola and Hoskins were both leaving we would have assumed a reset year; now it's a given Nola will be replaced with an equally big name/contract. Of course two years ago they'd also never exceeed the CBT.

Season before last there weren't any free agent signings at all until March because of the lockout, so maybe that's why people are forgetting they almost never happen in November. Last year Turner and Walker were both December but two years before that JT was late January and Didi February and those were both incumbents to boot, who usually sign earlier.

I doubt things will drag out with Nola or the other pitchers that long, that will play out more like last year's shortstops who were all done before Christmas (well, except for Correa).

[Jazzhead]

I certainly count 2 successes. The Phillies went deep in consecutive seasons that's a plus. As with the Eagles beating Dallas twice in a season, it is extra special to be responsible for the Braves early elimination two years in a row. Makes it all good.

So do I. Whiie there's no gonfalon for failing to win the NLCS, the way we kicked the Braves six ways from Sunday and ruined their season was immensely gratifying. And the amount of phun I had watching the boys and being part of the crowds at CBP will allow me to remember the season with fondness.

[Austinfan]

I think it's more how they finished, if Castellanos and JT and . . . had been blown away by great pitches, ok, but when your hitters get themselves out chasing unhittable pitches out of the zone . . . same with the RPs, it's one thing to throw your best stuff and get hit, but to constantly dig holes by walking players . . . leaves a bad taste in one's mouth.

[andyb]

There is always second guessing after any playoff loss, especially to a lesser team. But the big picture is still overachieving. In 2022 we won 3 series when we were expected to win 0 based on the regular season. In 2023 we won 2 series where we should have been expected to win 1.

This is a whole lot better than failing to meet expectations.

[andyb]

same with the RPs, it's one thing to throw your best stuff and get hit, but to constantly dig holes by walking players . .

Postseason bullpen ERAs for the 4 LCS teams
TEX - 4.08
ARI - 3.58
HOU - 3.99
PHI - 2.23
Phillies RP with a ERA > 2.60, Soto (6.00), Kerkering (3.38), Kimbrel (6.00)
Bullpen was not a problem, literally just Kimbrel in a tie game and Kimbrel with a lead. https://t.co/AHjmXNor7l

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) November 14, 2023

[Austinfan]

I survived Mitch Williams, can't stand RPs who come in and nibble.
I channel Patton,"Nobody ever defended anything successfully, there is only attack and attack and attack some more."

[zambonir]

Yup, we are in a nitpicking phase, based on the last five games instead of the previous 170. I'm not a big Nick fan, but we are picking apart the wreckage of his All-Star 112 OPS+ season more than we did last year's disaster. It was a bad signing because he'll never be the guy he was in 2021 or 2019 again, and that's how he's paid. I don't think Long can fix that, and his defense really demands he be a 120 OPS+ guy too.

The funny thing is I don't think any of us are really talking about what it might take to get the Phillies from a 90-win team to a 95-win team, or closer to the Braves (who won 104). I guess there is hope that they will avoid the slow start/injuries this time and keep the division in play, but once they address the Nola spot I think it makes sense to be more measured in the OF and bullpen moves, with the possibility of going bigger at the deadline.

[Austinfan]

What will take us there is producing young players at the same rate the Braves have done the last decade.
Not another big money signing of an over 30 year old player.

[andyb]

Matt added some thoughts on the 40-man maneuvers. In hindsight looking at the names left unprotected, Dominic Pipkin might be the most vulnerable to being selected as he has very good stuff in the bullpen and guys that touch 100 can break out pretty quickly. Maybe teams will look at Kroon, but he probably does not have that much value as a AAAA replacement-level guy. De La Cruz just seems very unlikely to stick in the majors since he'd probably struggle to hit .180 at this point.

Phillies Trade Dunn and Add None before Rule 5 Deadline

[zambonir]

What will take us there is producing young players at the same rate the Braves have done the last decade.
Not another big money signing of an over 30 year old player.

Well, yeah. But that's still not happening at a high enough rate, or as successfully when you compare our guys to theirs head-to-head. Nor could the Phillies trade from prospect depth like the Braves, did. Nor is there enough in the pipeline for the next 2-3 years (when this batch of contracts will finally all be up).

So yeah, best to just keep focusing on beating them in October for another couple of seasons.

Not signing a QO FA would also be good. So would turning some of that CF depth into another Brandon Marsh type trade (except a pure corner bat)

[zambonir]

From Matt's thing. I thought Nelson was finally out of options. Bellatti too.

That said the 40 man roster now contains Darick Hall (rumored to be looking at or be looked at by overseas teams), Clemens, Simon Muzziotti, Rodolfo Castro, Weston Wilson, Jake Cave, Edmundo Sosa, and Cristian Pache who all have some level of redundancies and probably can and will be reduced in number by 2-3. On the pitching side, there is needed depth, but there is also the out of options Fleming, the still on the roster Dylan Covey, but also in that optionable group of relievers they are carrying Nick Nelson, Connor Brogdon, Luis Ortiz, Michael Mercado, McKinley Moore, Andrew Bellatti, AND Yunior Marte. Outside of Fleming, that is a lot of right handed relief, and they probably don’t need to be carrying all of it. That is all to say that making room for Dunn wasn’t the difficult part, they just didn’t value him like that.

[andyb]

Bellatti is out of options. Nelson has 1 left.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/phillies

[Matt_Winkelman]

Nope Nelson has 1 left, didn't meet the minimum in 2020 or 2022, so just used one in 2021 and 2023. Bellatti is out of options, that was an oversight on my part.

Players without options: Edmundo Sosa, Jeff Hoffman (though he is actually now over the service time to refuse an option), Dylan Covey, Andrew Bellatti, Jake Cave, Cristian Pache, Josh Fleming, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez,

Simon Muzziotti was granted a 4th option year, and it has been reported Marchan has as well.

[zambonir]

Ooh, I didn't know about the depth chart, that's much easier than looking up players one by one.

That is good about Marchan and Muzziotti.

[andyb]

The decision on Marchan will be interesting. We could have him as the backup catcher and still use the last option on Stubbs if we wanted to keep both. It is really unclear who is the better backup catcher to me. Marchan had an 831 OPS at LHV last year and Stubbs now has a career 631 major league OPS. Present offense could be a wash but Marchan is probably a bit better defensively.

Note that Marchan is raking in Venezuela this winter so far. 16-43. Still no power but he has some strike zone discipline these days. 950 OPS and in Lehigh Valley he had 24 BBs against only 20 Ks.

[zambonir]

Well, tomorrow's the tender deadline right? Any predictions on them dumping anyone? They are probably all cheap enough to trade or release after I suppose. Soto feels fringey but that # is what Familia got two years ago and he was a lot better than that!

(via MLBTR)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Jeff Hoffman (5.084): $2.1MM
Ranger Suarez (4.112): $4.7MM
Gregory Soto (4.102): $4.9MM
Jake Cave (4.071): $1.4MM
Edmundo Sosa (3.140): $1.7MM
Dylan Covey (3.138): $1MM
Garrett Stubbs (3.120): $900K
Alec Bohm (3.106): $4.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Cave, Stubbs

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

[zambonir]

Phillies have done "significant work" scouting Yamamoto and are considered one of 5-6 teams in on him heavily. One would imagine the newly promoted international guy has been involved. I would think a bigger issue is selling him on infrastructure (translator etc.) vs. the teams that have been doing this for a long time and/or are in cities with a big Japanese community. If they got him I would think the extra $ probably comes back to the team easily just in terms of interest from Japan.

Sources say Phillies should be one of the top suitors for Yoshinobu Yamamoto....

[allentown]

Yamamoto makes a lot of sense for Phillies. We need a top SP. What we don't need is yet another season of losing draft picks and international money to sign a comped FA. And, we can use both Yamamoto and Nola.