Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Things don't usually heat up until the winter meetings which are still more than three weeks away. Nola hasn't even technically rejected his QO yet (nor have any other players, they all have until Tuesday).

In 2021 the Phillies didn't re-sign JT until the end of January. Harper not until February two years before that. Wheeler and Turner were earlier but but still into December.

And you can debate whether they need an Closer with a capital C versus just a late-inning reliever of some kind, but they certainly don't need a CF. They have three already. The starting CF is either Marsh or Rojas, and even Pache is probably better than most realistic available external options (like Harrison Bader, for instance). They'll get an OF of some kind but it will be a LF with a decent bat. The relief pitcher and OF will either happen fast and easily or slow and easily, because it won't be any of the biggest FAs.

Can't rule out trades either and those don't usually happen this soon either.

[EDmuch]

Will Adam Duval be a UFA or does he have another year on his contract with Atlanta?

[zambonir]

He was already a FA last year, left for Boston. One-year deal so yeah, a FA again, and certainly not a bad fit. I think all the guys the Phillies could have traded for (or in Grichuk's case, gotten for nothing) are free agents, the question is were they not interested in them in general or will they like them better now that it's only money.

[andyb]

Rule 5 protection coming up. De La Cruz and Dunn seem most likely to be protected. I would not be shocked if neither are however. Deadline 6 PM tomorrow.

One little nugget at the end. Darick Hall drawing some interest from Japan.

11/12/23 : Rule 5 Protection Decisions & Other Notes

[EDmuch]

Well Duval is a RH power bat who is a decent outfielder. Seems he would take a two year deal rather than teh continuing one year deals he has been playing under. I think he would add more to the team than Pache.

[andyb]

He is 35 now and not sure he is really considered that good a fielder any more. Certainly he should not have played CF last year in Boston, but his LF stats in Atlanta from 2022 are not that good any more. Duvall is passable in the OF, but it is probably a wash in terms of total value with Pache.

Pache is not the problem though. He is a serviceable 4th OF/platoon partner in CF. He just does not have the bat for LF and the Phillies really should not build a roster with both him and Rojas on it. What we should compare Duvall to is whether he is the best alternative for LF in terms of value considering both offense and defense. And that question is really about whether we can get a better bat than Duvall for our money in LF.

There are dozens of options when we look at bat first outfielders available for a modest cost. Is Duvall the best option?

[bkox]

Adam Duval

Duval has a career OBP of .291. His non-Fenway numbers were kinda ehhh in 2023 (.933 OPS at Fenway. .746 away). And hes 35yo so I dont know I would want a 2 year deal

but he is right handed, can play all 3 OF positions and has won a gold glove once. So it depends on his asking price whether I like him or not

[zambonir]

Signing another OF bat doesn't necessarily mean dumping Pache if Rojas isn't on the Opening Day roster. But I'm not sure they'd want anyone on a two-year (or $10M+) deal when they would ultimately be a bench/platoon bat with Marsh once Rojas is in CF. And if Marsh is in CF they might actually prefer a LHB for LF (with Pache as a very capable defensive OF in both spots. Heck, his 0.7 WAR in just 95 PAs compares more than favorably with Duvall's 1.6 in 353 PAs, though Duvall presumably got punished for playing CF and RF rather than LF).

Pache really needs to be traded for his own sake. He may yet turn into a 2-3.0 WAR OF, still mostly for the defense, but he needs to play more to see if the bat can grow. He was a smart pick-up at the time and then so much changed about the OF mix.

I am starting to think there is some truth to the Phillies preferring Snell over Nola. Rosenthal talked about it today and said they just like Snell's velocity better, which obviously tracks with their pitching program in general. Of course the Phillies could also be leaking that themselves to try and get Nola in the fold, if they can convince him they intend to sign an alternative quickly rather than wait. That said some of the writers have also speculated Nola would let the Phillies beat any offer.

[andyb]

Again, it is not about Pache. The roster really only needs 2 CFs (Marsh and a right-handed bat). Then we need a LF that could play every day (expensive) or platoon perhaps with the 26th man utility guy (who ideally plays all 4 corners).

This could be literally anybody. Best offense for the $$ IMO. I am not against Duvall but we should consider others. Robbie Grossman is bad defensively too, but might be a good fit for an aggressive swinging lineup. Lourdes Gurriel is more expensive but better than either. Eddie Rosario? Tommy Pham? Brian Anderson might be an interesting 4-corner guy. Heck, Brad Miller could fit on the roster again.

[zambonir]

Well if Ed imagined Duval actually playing CF I can see where that leaves out Pache, but I don't think that's the way to go. But if Rojas does end up on the Opening Day roster it all looks a little different, and Pache is redundant.

Pham is definitely interesting but he probably wants to play everyday. I am just assuming Rojas will be the CF by July if not before and that affects who you want to sign for LF as well.

Is Brad Miller actually even better than Kody Clemens at this point in his career? I know he was hurt this year. Also not sure he can even play LF that well anymore (let alone 3B).

[Chris23]

My feeling is this: this team is in need of one more solid right handed bat, but the question is at which position? Left field seems like the most logical, with Marsh moving to center in a platoon with Rojas/Pache.

I think that's probably the most likely scenario, since I don't get the feeling that the team has an appetite for massive changes to the line-up.

Is it possible that they trade Castellanos? Yes. I think DD is probably planning to upgrade at one position so if they trade Castellanos, Marsh and Rojas/Pache are your two other outfielders with Schwarber getting the occasional start in left.

But if they don't, then left field is the position to look at.

[andyb]

Hard to imagine a trade of Castellanos makes the team better. It would either be a pure salary dump for a 3rd tier prospect or they would have to take a big contract back (and then spend $10-$15 million getting a RF as good as Castellanos).

The Harper to 1B decision almost certainly lowers the chances we trade Casty. We still can upgrade LF for less than $10 million. A trade just means we need 2 OF instead of one. We can play both Marsh and one of Rojas/Pache already. Most likely we are playing only one of them at a time however. Hence we need 2 more OFs. We just don't have anyone else in the minors that could compete for real playing time with the power we likely want. Next offseason we are hopefully imagining Crawford and/or (less likely) Rincones for an OF role. Right now guys like Dunn or Kroon are merely competitors for the 26th roster spot.

[EDmuch]

I would look for Duval in left field. I also like Pham a lot.

[RolenRules]

Sorry to disagree Andy but how would a LF upgrade cost only $10M? The MLB Trade Rumors site has the top two FA outfielders as Teoscar Hernandez projected for a 4 year/$80 million contract, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for 4 years at $54M. Neither are worthwhile IMO. Hernandez will be 31 next year and Gurriel just a year younger, and their batting stats look remarkably similar to Castellanos. Duvall and Pham might accept $10 million but will each be 35 next year.

[zambonir]

Well, it all depends how you define "upgrade." Jake Cave started 38 games in LF last year. Schwarber 103. There are plenty of part-time players out there, even for $5 million, who can probably combine with either Pache or Marsh to be more productive overall (Schwarber's offensive value was practically negated by his defensive play, plus he didn't really get going at the plate for good until he was off his feet.)

I think one way or another your starting CF is either Rojas or Pache, at least 50-60% of the time, with Marsh the rest of the time. So you just need a LF to share the rest of that time with Marsh.

If they decide Rojas is going to spend the entire season in the majors, or be more of a 4th OF for the majority of this season, that's a different conversation.

I think a trade for an OF is also possible. My guess is the Castellanos dream is already over. The floated it, nobody nibbled, and then they denied it to make Nick feel better. Sure, it's still possible but it was always, and remains, unlikely.

[Austinfan]

Why would you platoon Marsh? Yes, he hit better from the right side, but he improved against LH pitching as the season progressed, played full-time in the playoffs, and should be the full-time LF/CF at age 25.

So you're talking a LH bat to platoon with Pache or Rojas, with Marsh shifting back and forth.
An upgrade over Cave shouldn't be that hard to find, even on a one year deal.

And at some point Rojas, if he doesn't start the season in CF (probably depends on how much progress he shows in ST), would probably be a mid-season call-up. Muzzioti will also get a long look in ST, as will Kroon

Given budget constraints, OF should be low priority relative to pitching.
You could improve hitting more by getting Turner, Castellanos, Bohm and JT to focus on being more disciplined, and chase fewer pitches out of the K-zone.

[Chris23]

It doesn't matter what we think of Marsh. Thomson and the Phillies seem to think he's best used only against right-handed pitchers. Pache started in left in the first two postseason games. That's telling.

I like Marsh's approach at the plate. In fact, his approach proved successful in the NLCS, but I don't think the Phillies see him as a full-time player, and his OPS vs lefties suggests that they're right.

With that in mind, you have to go into the season with the understanding that Marsh will not play against most lefties, so the solution seems to be to find a right-handed bat who can play left. And I don't think that bat is currently on the team, unless you think Weston Wilson or Pache are the answer.

[andyb]

Sorry to disagree Andy but how would a LF upgrade cost only $10M?

Upgrade over the current roster and the 2023 team which was without Hoskins. We are talking upgrade from the Cave/Pache/Weston Wilson trio. That is what Pham or others under $10 million could upgrade.

If we go spend $25 million on a starter we may not want to exceed $10 million on LF.

[zambonir]

If Marsh is the starting CF he'll play most of the time, with Pache still spelling him against LHP, but it won't be a platoon. But then it's not clear whether you should sign a RHB or LHB for LF. Either way a $10 million guy who can hit against lefties and righties (to some extent) makes sense.

Whereas if Rojas is the starting CF then Marsh is the LF and you still want a RH bench bat to spell him once or twice a week. Then there's probably no spot for Pache. That's still not a platoon ... and probably a smaller job than Pham (or Duvall) wants.

You could improve hitting more by getting Turner, Castellanos, Bohm and JT to focus on being more disciplined, and chase fewer pitches out of the K-zone.

You really think that's gonna happen?

[xogfog]

They really need RH and LH hitting outfielders so when facing RHP, Marsh plays CF and LH OF plays left and when facing LHP, Rojas plays CF and RH OF plays left. I suppose Cave is adequate in that capacity, but could be improved, and another RH bat to rotate in LF would be ideal.