Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Right but that's a risk that exists in Years 1-4 just as much as 5 or 6-7. And also a risk that exists for every other American free agent pitcher they might sign instead of Nola (and the same goes for anyone they trade for since you'd probably want to extend anyone you give up prospects for). In a perfect world you don't re-sign Nola or Wheeler and just replace them with Painter and Abel but neither of those things are happening right now. There's no next Nola or even next Suarez (doubt Sanchez is quite that good but then who thought Ranger was).

Anecdotally, who knows? The best pitchers seem to be doing better than ever now at older ages vs. Lee (five-year deal at age 32, only two good years of four and nothing in the fifth) and Halladay (three-year deal at 34 after his one year on what was technically still the Jays' contract, only one great season and one decent one, with the third a bust).

Any durable pitcher could just as easily be "due" for his breakdown (like David Robertson was) as likely to continue. We also now have pitchers who come back from TJ surgery and thrive more (and later) than ever.

[allentown]

Right but that's a risk that exists in Years 1-4 just as much as 5 or 6-7

I'd argue that the risk increases with age, but even disregarding that, the risk of flaming out in year 2 carries vastly more danger to the team with a pitcher on a 7-year deal than a pitcher on a 3-year deal. I'd be closer to agreeing with you if big baseball contracts were like big football contracts, but they aren't.

[Callison]

And giving up the QO comp is just a non-starter.

That opinion can be either true or false. If the Phils' hand is forced, I doubt they have a second thought about it. The team is at level of development where they can not afford to have a weaker SP staff than they have now... IMHO.

I think you have to be prepared to lose Nola to negotiate with him, so if I were DD, I would be in contact with all the top SP FA's. They will all be interested because the Phils are playoff ready.

I've seen a projection for Gray at $72M for 3 years. If I were DD, I'd open conversation at $60M for 3 years with incentives to reach $72M. Next year is the one that counts most for the Phils. I'd expect that to be accepted. Depends on the competition. If it has to be more than 3 years, vaya con Dios.

Montgomery projects at $20M for 5 years. That seems to be to going rate/term for these guys, so close to that works for me.

Life is simpler if the Phils can just sign Nola. To me, 6 or 7 years is reckless. But it all depends on the competition and the Phils will have to match competing offers.. There are desperate teams out there that will drive the price.

Surprising that nobody else here will offer any other alternatives. You'd think somebody would back Snell.

[zambonir]

And giving up the QO comp is just a non-starter.

That opinion can be either true or false.

It's an opinion, so it's 100% true! A non-starter for ME.

(And also for most people on this board which generally prioritizes development over short-term success which is why you don't see anyone pining for Snell. EdMuch has been a fan though.)

Nothing wrong with giving up compensation to get good players, the problem is the Phillies have done it three of the last four years. Keep doing it and it continues to be a vicious cycle, because all those lost picks mean you continue to need free agents. (Obviously picks don't always work out but it's 100% certain they won't if you don't have them.) Money is a less scarce resource for them than picks and international spending.

[Austinfan]

The problem with buying short-term success with over 30 FAs is you can easily fall into the nightmare of lost picks, lost international allocation, a number of veterans cratering together so you're quickly in salary cap hell without prospects to fuel a quick turnaround.

[allentown]

And that's how we found ourselves in a decade-long slump. Many say that won't happen this time. The new Phillies under Middleton won't cut payroll as savagely as was done after 2012. But... we are in the same danger of an impoverished minor league system stripped by trades and penalties for signing comped players, while also building up an even bigger burden of long contracts, which will create a lot of dead money over multiple years. There most definitely is a limit to how long a team can do this, before the slump is inevitable. When the FA load required to remain a solid contender grows with each season, a breaking point eventually is reached.

[zambonir]

For sure, Especially since the bill will also start to come due on our younger players - Bohm, Stott, Marsh, Ranger - even as JT, Schwarber and Castellanos's deals expire. And there's still really not much in the pipeline for corner-caliber bats (OF or IF) with anything but the most pie-eyed projections. At this point I'm betting JT sticks around for a couple of more years too, since there's no one else, but either way the team will no longer be getting as much offense from that spot.

The difference between this time and last also has to be scouting, drafting and developing better of course, not just being willing to paper over mistakes with $. It's not so much that the Gillick/Amaro Phillies traded away too much talent or suffered hugely from the FA picks; it's that they still whiffed hugely with the picks they had (as well as the Lee trade, and then nearly all of the other rebuild trades to boot). I do think they are in better shape there.

And of course it's not as bad to lose a 2nd round pick when you're picking so late. But between a second a fifth and a the money you are likely throwing away at least one future useful player (or trade asset).

Last year 3 of the 4 shortstops had a QO so while it was puzzling they weren't more interested in Correa (never mind what all went down there) they really had no choice but to lose the picks once they decided they wanted a SS (which you could also still debate). This year the the most obvious and best option doesn't involve that, and there are others too (though word is Montgomery would like to play for one of his three previous teams).

[zambonir]

My pitching thoughts

Plan A: re-sign Nola

Plan B: trade for Burnes

Plan C: Snell - distant plan c

I don’t see them being in play for Yamamoto. I don’t want Sonny Gray, he’s not an upgrade and is more of a #3 guy to me.

Maybe Jordan Montgomery fits in idk.

Just get Nola

— The Good Phight ( @TheGoodPhight ) November 11, 2023

[xogfog]

Count me as one who does not want Nola back. Collect the draft pick and trade for Burnes or sign Snell. Both are better than Nola. Nola has never won 20 games or a Cy Young, The best thing you can say about Nola is he is durable, but he has come up small in his final starts in seasons where they didn't make the playoffs and in the final games he pitched in each of the last two postseasons.

[Chris23]

I'm glad zambonir brought up Bohm (listed him first, in fact) as a younger player whose bill will come due soon. In fact, this year, I believe he's due to make about $4 million in arb (someone please correct me if I'm wrong).

I'm curious to hear your thoughts (not just zambo's but everyone's) on how to proceed with him. Because I feel like his value will decrease exponentially as his salary increases.

So I wonder, do you guys see him as the long term answer at third?

And let me just say: I'm much more optimistic about the other young players - Stott, Marsh, Suarez - in terms of their future production at their positions versus their salary increases (I'm assuming, by the way, that Marsh will be in left).

[Les229]

I expect the Phils to try and make a run for Trout. Whether they can get him is another thing, but I think they will try.

[zambonir]

I expect the Phils to try and make a run for Trout. Whether they can get him is another thing, but I think they will try.

There is barely anything left to make a run at! It would be cool if he could play here for a couple of years with the Angels picking up most of the tab, but by then he might only be a DH. They didn't hire Ron Washington to rebuild, and I believe he's already said he wants to stay. If he's not gettable I think it's because he isn't going anywhere (though I also wouldn't give up that much for him w/o big $ relief, too injury-prone, too much money and years on top of the guys the Phillies already have).

I'm glad zambonir brought up Bohm (listed him first, in fact) as a younger player whose bill will come due soon. In fact, this year, I believe he's due to make about $4 million in arb (someone please correct me if I'm wrong).

Chris, more than a few of us have always felt Bohm would never make it to his last arbitration year in a Phillies uniform. He exceeded my expectations this past year but still not sure some of his offensive value (like hitting with RISP) is sustainable, and he's definitely not a DH or 1B bat. And people who like him defensively are only grading him against himself, not good defensive players. If I were looking to make a big unexpected shake-up move that's where I'd look (and one of the MLBTR writers thinks that too) but I reckon he's probably here for a couple of more years, or at least next season is the pivot point. If he takes another step forward maybe you extend him for cost certainty/a discount; if he doesn't he is probably gone as a FA if not before. In the meantime, get a LHB to play 3B once or twice a week.

[xogfog]

I would definitely be in on Trout, I would only do it though if it doesn't cost Rojas, Crawford or Miller. If you could interest them in Castellanos, McGarry, Bergola, McCowan and not take too much money back since they would be taking Castellanos and keep Rojas and Marsh, play Trout in RF where it would be less stessful for him the CF. I would do that. Not sure if the Angels would, I think you would have to include Abel in any deal for Trout. Letting Hoskins and Kimbrel go help cushion taking on Trout's salary. I think you could keep Trout healthier by not playing him in CF and not letting him steal bases.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Trout's injuries make him a huge risk. Fractured hamate, back injuries, wrist issues. Unless he can be acquired for cash only, he's not worth it, IMO.

[zambonir]

I think you probably have to include one of Rojas and Crawford (or, heh, Marsh). I would definitely do it if they took back Castellanos but they'd still have to include more money. Casty only offsets 25% of Trout's total contract. That has to be more like 40 or 50%. They can't be carrying his $34.5 AAV from 2027 to 2030 without more offset (and even then not a great idea). Especially given the risk that he'll be useless/injured for all those years.

But, never gonna happen unless Trout wants it to happen, and will only go to the Phillies. If he just wants out, there is probably a better deal for the Angels to make. For all the Philly/South Jersey love the guy does still live in Southern California and may be just as interested in the Dodgers or the Padres. But regardless the Angels are going to be trying - and presumably failing - to win for at least another season, probably two.

[zambonir]

Nightengale says the Phillies intend to let Nola walk and are high on Snell, which of course has many people joking that is exactly what won't happen. (It's also the kind of thing Snell's agent would leak of course.)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/11/12/gm-meetings-craig-counsell-shohei-ohtani-trade-rumors/71548373007/

[Callison]

The statement that someone thinks something is just as unprovable as the former prediction of the future. If someone says they think something, they could be lying.

[Chris23]

One thing we know for sure is that the Phillies had already talked to Nola and supposedly even negotiated a new deal last April. So essentially, the Phillies know where they stand with Nola. And now you add free agency to the mix.

The question then becomes, are they too far apart that the Phillies feel it's better to move on and pursue Snell or others? It's certainly possible.

I'll say this for Nola: we mustn't discount a starter's durability and all the benefits it brings to a rotation. Having a starter whom you can rely on to pitch every 5th day is still something I like in my pitchers.

[Les229]

Well, Dombrowski had make a move soon. The writers are chomping at the bit and they have nothing to write and deadlines to meet. They are starting to make things up, They need at least one starting pitcher, a closer and a center fielder.

[bkox]

My guess is nothing is going to happen unti this passes:

November 14, 2023, 4 pm Eastern time: Last date for Free Agents to accept Qualifying Offers.