Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[andyb]

Fangraphs top 50 here with contract projections and extensive notes:

2024 Top 50 MLB Free Agents

[zambonir]

The Kyle Gibson entry is an especially interesting read if you think the Phillies should also round out the bottom of the rotation's depth (not that they can't afford a $10 million one-year depth starter, Lorenzen included).

Ben’s Take
Want a good representation of how much leaner this offseason’s free agent class is than last year’s? Gibson didn’t make last year’s top 50 list, though to be fair he didn’t miss by much. He signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Orioles, the 63rd-largest guarantee and 44th-largest AAV in the class. I’m projecting him for basically the same deal – and now he’s no. 25 on the list. Yikes.

That’s not to say that I don’t think Gibson is worth the money. A lot of teams are looking for what he provides: 150-200 innings of average-ish pitching. He’s not someone you’ll be excited to start in a short playoff series, or really any playoff series, but you also have to get to the playoffs, and I think he’s clearly good enough to figure somewhere on a postseason roster. The Orioles planned to use him as a fourth starter, then brought him in for emergency relief work while they were getting swept in three games, and I would expect his next team to value him similarly. I’m projecting another one-year deal – Gibson’s peripherals are not the kind that convince teams to extend multi-year offers – but so long as he continues to limit walks and keep the ball on the ground, teams will keep running him out there, and they’ll be happy about it. There are just so many innings to fill in a baseball season.

Player Notes
Many pitchers past their peak will enter an “innings eater” phase, no longer mowing down lineups but still getting deep into games with regularity. But Gibson’s run as an innings eater isn’t just a phase – it has defined his entire career, as the 36-year-old has been a model of availability and volume while never being a frontline, or even mid-rotation, starter. In the past decade, no one has made more starts than Gibson, and only Max Scherzer has faced more batters. He’s one of just nine starters in that timeframe to grade out below average by ERA-, but no pitcher has been a more consistent bet to take the bump every fifth day.

[zambonir]

Subhead kind of speaks for itself

The Phillies’ tendency to chase bad pitches led to their NLCS collapse. Do they...

Dombrowski does say he hopes Turner and Casty can improve, and the new assistant hitting coach will be focusing on this (in general).

[Austinfan]

Yeah, the retreads are short-term, but they've drafted a lot of RP arms (often college SPs who lack enough pitches to start in the pros but throw mid-90s with more in a RP role):

2023: 6th Klassen, 7th Eddington, 10th Brown, 12th Beckel, 13th Gair, 19th Seward
2022: 4th McFarlane, 5th Kerkering, 16th Bortka, 17th Harper
2021: 5th McGarry, 7th McGowan, 8th Ruffcorn, 11th Baker, 16th Collins, 17th Garbrick, 18th Binns, 19th Halvorsen. 20th Wynne

[andyb]

There is no hiding the fact that in both the draft and internationally the last couple of years we have prioritized offense as opposed to pitching. While large bonuses to international pitchers are not great bets, the fact is that we have brought in precious few high end international arms in the last few years compared to the rest of baseball.

This is part of the reason that resigning Nola should be a priority. With all our high octane (i.e. one inning) bullpen arms, we need starters that eat innings.

[allentown]

These are dice rolls, not a serious focus on stockpiling quality arms. If you wait until the 5th, 4th, and 6th round to draft pitching, you simply aren't serious about stockpiling quality arms. Everyone drafts this many pitchers. On the international front, I think dividing $2.5 mill among 5 pitchers would get us more than plunking down $2.5 mill for the position players we've taken year after year. Some promising ones, but we've generally gotten more value for a lot less $ on international pitching than we have on the hitters.

[Matt_Winkelman]

This comes up constantly, where are these international arms other teams are spending big money on? I just pulled up MLB's list of top international prospects from last year, and these are 3 pitches in the top 30, 1 is Cuban, 1 is South Korean, and one is actually a 2-way players. There are 4 more arms in the 31-50 range, there are not high rated international arms period.

Then on top of that, the Phillies 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th highest bonuses this last signing period all went to pitchers, topping out with Wen Hui Pan.

When looking at the draft it is also important to look at that above expenditure on talent and remember they did not have a 2nd round pick the last two seasons and did not have a 5th round pick last year. They did spend more on hitting in their first few picks the last few years, but you are really talking about a sample size of about 4-5 picks and constraints on pool money.

[andyb]

Regardless of the bonus sizes though, we are simply not developing too many international arms lately. The MLB Pipeline top 30 has only 3 (Pan, Segura, Aldegheri) and only one is from Latin America. Normally we have a half dozen international pitching prospects in the top 30 (they have a longer development curve so they retain prospect status longer than draft prospects). None higher than 20th.

They started offering some higher bonuses internationally last year, but other than Pan they really were not large bonuses because of our small pool and the amount that we spent on Caba.

This is a problem. Probably a big reason Sal is being moved out.

[allentown]

This comes up constantly, where are these international arms other teams are spending big money on? I just pulled up MLB's list of top international prospects from last year, and these are 3 pitches in the top 30, 1 i

This is an opportunity to exploit what seems to be an opportunity in the disparity between international bonuses to hitters vs pitchers. I'm not suggesting spending $2+ mill on an international arm. I said spread $2.5 mill on 5. It's great to say our #2/4/5/6 international bonuses went to pitchers, but the lions share of the bonus pool, as it has always done recently, has gone to hitters, often 80+% to our top guy, who is invariably a position player. We have little to show for it.

[Austinfan]

We've signed our share of int'l pitchers to those intermediate bonuses, so far, all have flopped, our only LA pitchers to make it have been low cost signings.

RPs are a volume proposition, which is what the Phillies are doing, sign bunched of junior and seniors who are marginal starting material but have velocity and one secondary pitch you might develop.

SPs are tougher, because while RPs can be found from round 5-15, I think you'll find most college SPs of value are taken earlier, b/c they need a better toolkit. HS SPs are a gamble on maturity and thus higher risk.

I haven't seen a study, but I'd bet you're more likely to find a ML SP from HS pitchers later in the draft than college pitchers, b/c after 3 years in college you have a better feel of their upside and the lower risk gets players with similar talent drafted higher.

[andyb]

The point is not the bonuses (though it is hard to believe it is not a contributing factor). It is the results. We are not developing much Latin American pitching. Volume was the strategy but quality (or lack thereof) is the result and the problem.

[Matt_Winkelman]

There are no high cost latin pitching signings, or at minimum very few. There is this insistence that those players are out there, but they aren't. There were 36 pitchers 26 years old or younger who pitched at least 100 innings this season, 6 were latin american signings - Johan Oviedo, Cristian Javier, Brayan Bello, Julio Urias, Javier Assad, and Luis Medina.

At minimum that seems to indicate there isn't some sort of untapped market that the Phillies aren't getting into, and this goes back to things said before which is that it is 16 year olds vs in the case of college guys 21 year olds, the pitchers haven't really developed by signing time and the incentives aren't really there for getting signed. Also just look at Francisco Morales and Starlyn Castillo and the type of arm that does pop at ages 15-16.

Also velocity isn't everything, but I have 11 pitchers on the two teams this year up to 94 already. I generally think Pipeline is pretty bad at their jobs and would say Jean Cabrera and Estibenzon Jimenez are right there with Pan and Aldegheri and ahead of Segura. That essentially puts them on par with the non-elite arms of the system.

[EDmuch]

Please, no Alex Verdugo

[BostonRoss]

I think the Red Sox definitely want to trade Verdugo. He was benched at least twice this season for lack of hustle and showing up late. He's a bit of a malcontent and sulked after not being named an All-Star--then tanked in the second half.

But I don't think there is any chance of the Sox trading Verdugo to the Phillies. The Sox' biggest need is starting pitching. I suspect what they want in return for Verdugo is not Taijuan Walker. The Sox wouldn't want Castellanos in return even though they could DH him. The salary difference would be a non-starter.

Verdugo is less of a hitter than Castellanos and is just as streaky. Verdugo is certainly a better defender. But again, I don't see a trade fit, which is good because I don't think he'd thrive in Philly.

[Callison]

The Phils will need two strong starters like Wheeler and Nola to continue their run. Though Nola is the preferred option, when the Phils tried to extend him, they were some $100K apart. No doubt the Phils were trying to save at the time, but now that there are others bidding for him, they'll likely do what they can to meet competing offers, but it could easily fall apart. Likely looking at 5 years for Nola, too, which should give the team pause.

Who else do you like? Other options are gonna cost picks, too. I heard the protests, but the pressure could be on and that might have to be accepted.

Gray might be had for 3 years and I think he's got the best arm. Might be the oldest too, and injury-prone. But that's the guy I prefer.

Let's hear from the experts.

[zambonir]

Though Nola is the preferred option, when the Phils tried to extend him, they were some $100K apart. No doubt the Phils were trying to save at the time, but now that there are others bidding for him, they'll likely do what they can to meet competing offers, but it could easily fall apart. Likely looking at 5 years for Nola, too, which should give the team pause.

I wouldn't read too much in that old $100 million figure. Just one side starting high and one side starting low, plus the years probably weren't the same. Nola was probably asking for $200M 6 years based on the fact that he's better than Rodon and the market was going to be higher and the Phillies probably offered $100M 4 years. MLBTR projects $150M 6 years and it would be crazy if the Phillies didn't give him that (especially since they project the exact same deal for Montgomery). It would also be both sides meeting exactly halfway if they really were $100M apart.

If the Phillies aren't willing to go longer than four years they won't get Nola or anyone else of that caliber. The only alternative would be a trade and the Phillies are in a much better position to throw away money in 2028 than they are to give up prospects (plus you'd still have to re-sign almost anyone you trade for).

MLBTR projects Gray at 4 years $90 million but he's already 34 years-old so giving him a 4- year deal is exactly the same as giving Nola a 7-year deal.

And giving up the QO comp is just a non-starter. We're already seeing some of the holes from having done so so many times. It's Nola, Montgomery, or a trade. Or two lesser pitchers instead of one great one.

[allentown]

MLBTR projects Gray at 4 years $90 million but he's already 34 years-old so giving him a 4- year deal is exactly the same as giving Nola a 7-year deal.

No, it really isn't. Gray's arm survived to 34 and we don't know if Nola's (or any pitcher of his age). Also, the amount of potentially dead money is very different. I'd jump to sign Nola at $150 million/6 years. While more $ is at risk with Nola, I believe the odds of getting 2 and 3 plus seasons from him are higher than with Gray.

[Austinfan]

Not exactly, an older pitcher still throwing hard (see Morton) has a higher probability of decline year to year than a younger pitcher with similar skills, but a LOWER probability of decline when the younger pitcher hits the same age. That is, because the older pitcher, by not declining, has skewed the sample toward longevity.

So Nola is likely to perform worse than Gray did at 34, simply becauase most 31 year old pitchers will decline far more than Gray. A 5 year deal for Nola is probably less risky than a 4 year deal for Gray, a 7 year deal would be far more risky.

[zambonir]

Really I consider giving Nola a 6 or 7 year deal to be zero risk, because you're not actually expecting to get anything from him in those years. It would be entirely about winning the bidding and lowering the AAV. You hope Year 5 gives you some value but that it is all. If you can get it done in five, great. But if not, so what. We keep thinking these are the 2012 or 1995 Phillies, and they're not. And if it all goes bad Nola will be playing for another team by then.

Gray was pretty much a bust during what should have been his peak two years/final two arbitration years. I feel like his floor his still lower than Nola's and you can spin his durability either way - less wear on him, or a guy who is due to break again after just topping 175 innings for the first time since 2019.

[andyb]

Really I consider giving Nola a 6 or 7 year deal to be zero risk, because you're not actually expecting to get anything from him in those years

Freddy Garcia? One of the most durable pitchers in baseball until he wasn't. He was only 30 in his lone Phillies season. There are cumulative use risks with Nola that are probably greater than the average pitcher his age. I think his motion minimizes these risks, but to pretend they are not there is just not realistic.