Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[Austinfan]

A one year rental is fine, with Ricones and Crawford in the pipeline, Rojas probably half a year from starting full-time, Phillies should be shedding long-term commitments to over 30 OFs.

[zambonir]

Yeah I understand the theoretical appeal of the two players but Casty is also still not a good defensive player, and even his bat couldn't make him more than a 0 WAR player two of the last four years.

But it's more about the money. That's a perfectly fine one-for-one trade in a vacuum, and Verdugo's value is lowered by his pending free agency, but he's still five years younger than Casty and much cheaper, while the Sox would have to pony up for $30-40 million of Nick's contract. That would likely cost the Phillies at least one good prospect or two okay ones.

I'm all for it, I just think that if it costs that kind of freight to trade Nick they can probably do better... or worse (i.e. you get less return but shed the contract which lets you make other moves).

[Callison]

They both cost us the same thing Snell would. The 2 draft picks

Wow. The Phils face desperation then if they don't sign Nola. Maybe even if they do sign him...

[andyb]

I'd look into trading Casty for Alex Verdugo. He's a left-handed bat, and a significant defensive upgrade. More doubles power than home runs, but he gets on base and has better plate discipline.

If we traded Casty we are probably in the market for a right-handed OF bat that is better offensively though.

[zambonir]

I really think this Castellanos report is more in the "the Phillies are open to it" than "the Phillies are actively trying to trade him." And either way it will be easier said than done to find a taker/the right deal.

But Feinsand probably isn't wrong that they could still consider bringing back Hoskins. Doing it the way Dombrowski has done it maintains his leverage, i.e, he doesn't have to trade Castellanos, whereas if Harper was going back to RF for sure (and Rojas is ultimately the CF) Nick is odd man out.

[Jazzhead]

Of course, the Phils don't need to trade Casty at all in order to justify getting Verdugo. He'd make the perfect bridge to allow our young centerfield talent, including Rojas, to develop. Since he'll be a free agent after 2024, trading for him as the new leftfielder shouldn't be too expensive, and doesn't lock us in to a long term commitment. Playing Verdugo in left, Marsh in center and Casty in right constitutes a pretty darn good defensive outfield, strengthens us against right handers (who Verdugo rakes) and retains Casty's home run power and right-handed bat for balance against lefties.

[zambonir]

That is true. Though I don't think he has "raked" RHP since 2021. He was just okay in 2022 and pretty good last year (.793 OPS which really isn't that impressive if that's supposed to be your strong side, and his OBP hasn't topped .330 against RHP either).

MLBTR projects he's due to get $9.2 million which the Phillies can certainly afford but I'm not sure his bat really brings enough to make a Verdugo/Marsh/Casty OF actually better than a Marsh/Rojas/Casty OF, and you could probably get a power platoon bat for less money (and no trade cost) or full-time LF for not that much more.

[Jazzhead]

You're right that Verdugo's OBP against RHP is good but not outstanding. He tends to hit more for average than draw a ton of walks. On the assumption that Rojas needs a year of seasoning in AAA, it seems to me that he's a relatively cheap, low risk addition for next year that will solidify the outfield defensively while providing significantly more power and production that Rojas would next year. If Rojas blossoms as a hitter (which he could well do by better use of bunting and his speed), then wave goodbye to Verdugo at the end of the year.

[zambonir]

It will be interesting to see what they really do. Rojas could be the Opening Day CF, the June 1 CF or the post All-Star break CF. I feel like he's not gonna stay in AAA all year. Of course conversely he could start the season in MLB and then go back down in June, never to be seen again.

But if Marsh is the CF I'd like to see a LF who can hit clean-up, since Bohm, Realmuto and Castellanos are all not really that kind of hitter. Of course they could also try Turner leading off again, with Stott second and Schwarber fourth. But...

[allentown]

I think the best approach is to go with the OFs they have. Pitching remains the greatest need and it is a significant need. I don't want to sigh another QO guy and further mortgage the future through lost international $ and draft picks. That means signing Nola and then going for non-QO relievers and a #4/5 SP.

[zambonir]

I don't really see the bottom of the rotation and the bullpen as areas of great need, assuming Nola is re-signed or replaced in an equivalent manner. Walker #4 Sanchez #5, a couple of depth pieces (swingmen or minor league deal vets) but probably not anyone of Lorenzen's caliber or higher (assuming those guys are all >$10 million and 2-3 years.

The pen, yeah, they will probably bring in one veteran arm to replace Kimbrel as well as the usual assortment of upside acquisitions (which has already begun) but assuming they tender Soto and Kerkering makes the team there's really only one high-leverage opening and one low-leverage spot (which may or may not still be Covey's, but if not it surely won't be anyone on a guaranteed contract/out of options... unless it's the 6th starter candidate).

I'd still change the entire bench, if the three starting OFs actually are the same. Replace Pache with a corner OF RHB and replace Cave with a LH bench bat who can play both 3B and LF. If that guy can't play 3B then replace Sosa with a LH utility guy. Clemens technically is that person but not that exciting, offensively or defensively (especially should he be forced to play SS).

Dombrowski tends to make big moves and they are unlikely to be in free agency this time (other than the starting pitcher but maybe not even then if it isn't Nola) so we'll see how serious he really is about listening on Nick and starting Rojas in the minors. Either or both of those things dictate moves. Neither means it's the same line-up as last year (since Rhys didn't play) and that might be okay too. But better to spend a little money on free agents than be stuck trading prospects at the deadline.

[bkox]

Bryce Harper wins the NL DH Silver Slugger Award

[Les229]

I can agree with the need for bullpen help. I am a firm believer that closer by committee is a shaky proposition in the playoffs. That closer that the Diamond backs used was by far more effective than the closer by committee that the Phils used. As for centerfield, I think I would start the season with Rojas in Allentown and make him learn how to be more consistent against good pitching,

[zambonir]

We'll have to agree to disagree there, but also, the Phillies lost the ALCS because they actually did veer more towards the use of a traditional closer, not a closer-by-committee. It's just that Kimbrel failed in two of his three appearances, and Sewald didn't. That's about the pitcher, not the philosophy. One was good, one wasn't.

I guess you might buy the argument that Kimbrel shouldn't have been asked to pitch in anything but clean inning, 9th inning save situations, and he failed because he had to pitch in tie games and 8th innings (someone else would have had to close Game 4 had the Dbacks actually come to bat) too but I do not.

And similarly, in the end, Arizona's untested rookie reliever did better than ours when they went back to him after a bad game.

[Austinfan]

This reflects our farm system more than anything else, and why they've been stockpiling arms the last few years.

It's much easier to develop RPs than SPs, a RP only needs two pitches, a SP four. Since an RP is throwing short stints, the increase in velocity can compensate to some extent for command limitations.

Kerkering is a good start, but you want a deep portfolio of RP arms in AA and AAA, because injuries happen, RPs fall off the cliff (Brogdon), and RP FAs probably disappoint more than any other position (b/c most are so variable season to season).

[zambonir]

Yeah you think you have depth and then you don't. Brogdon unexpectedly busted, they ditched Coonrod because they didn't need him, Romero got traded last for Sosa. I think clearly the Cotham/Brian Kaplan regime (along with the front office) just decided they didn't like what they had inherited and thus got aggressive with trades, marginal signings and free agents. But they did a heck of a job with that.

You just can't judge a bullpen by its playoff performance. Kimbrel could have been great and still blown his last game with one bad luck or mistake pitch. And Sewald still did exactly that.

[fish]

If the Brewers are selling and they need to be blown away to move Williams now instead of the deadline….I can start that package with Abel and follow that with anyone not named Painter Crawford or Miller. I like Bednar but I don’t think I couldt trust him 100% to do it in Philly for the price it will cost, but locking down the closer for a few seasons is critical to the window.

I also don’t know how much longer Hader has at the top of his game to lose picks and pay $20 million a year for it.

[zambonir]

Williams is awfully good, but I still don't agree with putting significant trade resources and money into the closer. He won't be overpaid since it's just arbitration but there are also plenty of free agents in that $10 million range. And I still think if this bullpen failed it was because Thomson was overly deferential to Kimbrel as The Closer and overused him (though that was also due to injuries). I'm fine with just adding a Hendricks or Neris or even Matt Moore and continuing to expect Alvarado and Seranthony to get high-leverage work (hopefully with Kerkering becoming worthy of it too).

Aroldis Chapman appears to be this year's Kimbrel. Someone is going to pay him and let him close and I'd rather not see it.

You wanna trade Abel to the Brewers, get Burnes, even if Nola comes back too. Then you can re-sign him if you don't keep Wheeler.

Ultimately when the closer is costing you games at crunch time it's because some other part of the team failed too. Yeah, the Phillies might have won the NLCS in 5 with a few better innings there but they also didn't even get to put their closer in the game for the last two. And I seem to recall the Phillies lighting up both Hader and Williams at different points in the last two season. It happens.

[allentown]

This reflects our farm system more than anything else, and why they've been stockpiling arms the last few years.

This is simply not true. The Phillies used first rounders on Abel and Painter, but since then, across the board -- international and draft -- the vast majority of our resources have been spent on position players. Even in the Abel/Painter draft years, the international $ flowed to bonuses for position players. We simply have not stock piled arms on the farm. Of the listed top 10 prospects from a few days ago, only 3 are pitchers and of those 3, Kerkering has already made his MLB debut and Painter has yet to return from injury and test his post-injury arm strength and control.

[zambonir]

I think what AF meant is, the farm system is thin, so they've been stockpiling (relief) arms on the 40-man (be they big-name free agents, trades, or waivers claims) the last few years.