Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[Austinfan]

We needed better scouts as well, almost all our hits were bargain price guys, which suggests that the lower level guys had better judgement than the higher level scouts who were recommending the big bonus babies (not just the multi-million guys, how many $300k - $1M guys have even gotten to AA and AAA ball?).

[allentown]

What I was saying is that attitude and team harmony is a part of their never out of it spirit. That is a part of the mix

And they still had that this season without Hoskins. The team simply cannot succeed with 4 expensive 1B/DH. That is an unbalanced roster and ties up too much of the payroll. It depends upon how costly a Hoskins deal would be and for how long. This is age 31 season for Hoskins.

[zambonir]

Philadelphia (on social media) is already commemorating the end of Rhys's Phillies career. With good reason I'd say.

That said, it's still not clear to me what they should do. If they sign a new starting LF with a big enough bat to play every day and hit from both sides that basically means Rojas is a minor league/bench/platoon player this season. But I don't think that is actually necessary; a part-time RHB/LF will be enough (assuming the pitching has been covered) and Rojas could be up by mid-season or earlier too.

To make a splash/add the sort of big piece that Callison is dreaming of would really require parting ways with someone from last year's starting line-up. That should be Castellanos IMO, but easier said than done. Otherwise committing to a new FA LF on a longer-term deal would mean eventually trading Marsh or Rojas. Or stand pat in the OF and make a big move by replacing Bohm, a popular option for some (and not for others).

[zambonir]

Marcus Hayes, frequently wrong! But let's see.

Whatever Hoskins commands on the open market — and, as a selective, right-handed hitter who averaged 36 homers per 162 games with an .846 OPS, he’ll command plenty — will be too much of a luxury for the Phillies, president Dave Dombrowski told reporters Wednesday.

They will almost certainly exceed the luxury-tax threshold for a third consecutive season. Hoskins has been a butcher at first base for most of his career, and he probably isn’t going to be a lot better on a 31-year-old, reconstructed knee when next season starts. They can afford only one offense-only player on the roster, and that will be home run machine Kyle Schwarber. Teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a tailor-made designated hitter like Hoskins. I hope he gets $200 million and gets to move home to California.

Sadly, the Rhys Hoskins era with the Phillies ends

[Les229]

With today's Dombrowski announcement, it appears that the issue is settled. The Phillies are probably looking for a centerfielder. It also looks as though Schwarber will be relegated to a steady DH role. It also explains why Hoskins was not given an offer. Not given an offer makes the job easier for Hoskins.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't say they are looking for a CF. They have Marsh, Pache and Rojas. They need a RHB to play LF and possibly share that spot with Marsh if and when Rojas locks down a starting job. Even if you write off Rojas for the year anyone who is actually a good CF (like Kiermaier or Harrison Bader) won't be a big enough bat (or better than Marsh even).

[bkox]

If both Nola and Hoskins leave.. it will mean that Seranthony Dominguez and Ranger Suarez are the guys that have been here the longest, both debuting in 2018.

[zambonir]

Those 2017 and 2018 line-ups are traumatizing!

[zambonir]

Dombrowski predicts Gold Glove contention for Bryce (which could totally happen given it's never just about fielding).

This story does note that Bryce was +3 outs above average, tied for sixth among all 1B. He was +2 in runs prevented, which was 8th. Hoskins was -9 and -6 and at the very bottom of MLB last year in both categories. Guess it all depends which stats you like. (Bohm was also a positive player in both those categories at 3B, but negative at 1B.)

The Phillies' big Bryce Harper decision likely ends the Rhys Hoskins era

[andyb]

I think the Phillies will now look for a left-handed bat to play LF, not a right-handed bat. This should be an offense-first bat for when Marsh is playing CF. They can't be looking at Rojas full time, so the assumption is that Rojas or Pache will play against left-handed pitching.

They also might still have some sort of platoon going with the utility bat on the bench. If they can find somebody that can play against both right and left-handed pitching then great. We just need to assume that Rojas is not going to win a full time job.

[zambonir]

If Rojas and Pache are both on the big league team that certainly makes sense. Of course that means it is basically the same team as late last year except Pache (who was injured) instead of Castro and someone better than Cave off the bench. With the hope that Pache still has untapped offense and Rojas will improve (hopefully with some bunts and IF singles too).

In a perfect world you get a LHB who can play both LF and 3B.

But will it be a better offensive team? Older guys are getting older. Younger guys aren't necessarily guaranteed to improve in a straight line. They can be much better right out of the gate with a healthy Harper and non-slumping Schwarber and Turner (plus no Schwarber in LF) but those things aren't guaranteed, and Nick and Bohm are still basically ordinary players.

Ah, but wait!

https://www.mlb.com/news/nick-castellanos-phillies-trade-availability

[andyb]

In a perfect world you get a LHB who can play both LF and 3B.

Well we have that in Clemens. Suppose they could do that if they really want to keep Pache and spend big on pitching with Nola or Snell or the Japanese guy. It should not cost more than $5 million to get a half decent left-handed platoon bat so I imagine they go get somebody and Clemens is the 27th man option guy.

[zambonir]

I always thought Clemens deserved another look with Cave not producing, but he's hardly an upgrade.

Right now it all depends on whether or not Rojas makes the Opening Day roster, and if so, do they keep Pache too? Supposedly Dombrowski was more positive about Rojas's spot in his comments yesterday (versus when he said he wasn't guaranteed anything at the end-of-season press conference) but I haven't actually seen that.

[andyb]

We should not keep both Pache and Rojas. If we keep Pache it means Rojas is likely optioned to AAA to play every day. It is just an inefficient use of a roster spot if Pache is a pure backup or left-field platoon player.

[zambonir]

Agreed. I just don't think you can wait until March to make that decision.They may want Rojas to play in Clearwater like he's trying to win the job, but in terms of roster construction you can't really sign or trade for another OF without knowing how the pieces fit.

I'm gonna hope for that Castellanos trade myself. The money shouldn't be an object; would be more worried about the Phillies needing to include a sweetener unless they can take another team's bad contract back too.

Feinsand even suggests that if they trade Nick they could reverse course on Bryce and bring back Rhys, which may be a factually correct statement but seems unlikely. Probably the whole thing falls into the category of "we'll listen on anybody" as most teams do this week.

[Jazzhead]

I'd look into trading Casty for Alex Verdugo. He's a left-handed bat, and a significant defensive upgrade. More doubles power than home runs, but he gets on base and has better plate discipline.

[zambonir]

Here's PhilliesNation's post about the MLB report.

Report: Phillies open to trading Nick Castellanos – Phillies Nation

Verdugo was mentioned in the MLB report but why would the Red Sox make that trade? Without considerably more coming back from the Phillies, at least.

[zambonir]

And here's Lauber reiterating the likelihood of a Harper re-negotiation eventually.

Staying at first shows Bryce Harper’s commitment to Phillies — and an...

[Jazzhead]

erdugo was mentioned in the MLB report but why would the Red Sox make that trade? Without considerably more coming back from the Phillies, at least.

Casty profiles to hit twice as many home runs as Verdugo, and a right handed power bat always plays well at Fenway. Verdugo will be a free agent, I believe, after next year and likely would command a multi-year contract to retain after 2024. I think he had issues with Red Sox management this past year and I understand the Sox are shopping him. He can be streaky, same as Casty, and he might end up being a rental. But his on-base skills, doubles power (37 doubles and 5 triples last year) and great defense would make him a great fit, I think, in Philly. He profiles especially strongly against right handed pitching.

[bkeich]

Hoskins is clearly a great guy, great teammate, fan favorite, but sadly he just isn’t a match for us any longer. There is no spot for him as long as Harper is healthy and playing 1B. I will continue to be a fan of his.

Nola, honestly, I don’t mind losing. Especially with a draft pick (even though only a 4th rounder). He has a lot of innings and he does seem to be trending down, his fastball isn’t nearly what it was when he was at his top and his other pitches have all decreased. He still gets strikeouts, but the hard contact he gives up is very troubling. He isn’t a $25-30M/ year pitcher, and time is just going to keep decreasing his value. I might do 4/80, but a really doubt they would do more than laugh at that until they see how the market plays out.

We need a replacement starter. Lorenzon is nothing more than a #5/6 guy and reliever, would love to get him back, but one crazy great game is not a reason to ignore every other data point.