Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

In the end, the signings will tell us what they plan. The fact that they haven't promised Rojas CF would seem to suggest they're willing to do what they didn't at the trade deadline and get a more significant corner type bat. But it doesn't mean they will. It could indeed just be a couple of Cave/Wilson types (even if it's not them) with Marsh and Rojas starting.

Similarly, for all the talk about chase rate and what went wrong in the second half of the NLCS, a whole lot went right for a long time too, and that can be seen as, at best, a small sample, or at worst, fixable like AF argues.

I'm just not sure our older players are going to be better, or that our young players are ever truly going to be middle-of-the-order types, so it's hard not to want an impact bat. It's just too bad the most suitable one might be the one they let go/don't have a spot for.

[Austinfan]

I think Long is going to show the championship series cutouts to them and have a long talk about aging players losing bat speed and having to learn to compensate. And they were so bad I think they'll listen.

[zambonir]

He'll try. But he's known Turner a long time and they worked together constantly all year. He knows Turner doesn't always listen either.

And Casty is always just going to be a gut/guess hitter, IMO. He's just not good enough consistently enough anymore to get away with it. But you change him you probably lose the good parts too.

JT you would like to think can take more walks but he probably is what he is at this point.

[Austinfan]

I don't think he'll make drastic changes, rather, tweak around the edges, get Castellanos to stop chasing breaking balls away and he's a plus hitter, get JT to lay off high fastballs, etc. And learn from Stott's 2 strike approach.

[andyb]

You do realize that hitters need to be more aggressive in their swing decisions when they lose batspeed?

[Austinfan]

No, they need to be more selective, which is how guys like Thome were effective until almost 40.

It's not about walks, it's about knowing what you can handle and what you can't, and working an AB instead of just going up and hacking away. If you can't hit low breaking balls, lay off them until the pitcher either raises them or throws a FB. So what if some are called strikes, you're not going to hit it anyway.

It comes down to focusing on the one or two pitches each PA that you can hit and getting a good swing on them - not chasing pitches that you'd foul off or have low velocity contact even if you hit them. And this requires self-scouting, and maybe even hours watching pitches from a pitching machine (which can be programmed in this day and age to imitate any pitcher) so you get a feel for what an unhittable pitch looks like.

[Les229]

Well tomorrow is Nov.14. I think they need an experienced Closer with a Capital C. The reclamation project approach they have been following has let them down twice now. If Nola walks, they are going to have to come up with a number 2 starter. I would like to see Marsh stay in left field.

[andyb]

You just said a bunch of 10 year vets need to become more selective as they age and lose batspeed. That is just not how it works. There are more than 1 way to generate offense. Long teaches aggressiveness as much as patience. There are good reasons to be aggressive. And frankly, an older player like Castellanos will need to be more aggressive to continue to hit for power. He is not going to get quicker as he ages so he has less time to react to the pitch.

All these players understand this. They focus. They try to hit good pitches. Long and they are doing the best they can with what they have. It is not a fantasy of just magically trying to draw walks. Being aggressive often helps them draw more walks. Ask Bryce about this. It is part of his strategy.

[zambonir]

I just don't think Kimbrel was a failure, any more than Sewald was for the Dbacks, or Jonathan Broxton was for the Dodgers in 2008 and 2009. Every closer but one eventually blows their big save.

And Kimbrel had a very good season. Might have been an even better one if he'd been used less and more open to different roles (and neither of his bad games in the World Series were actually save situations!). And last year's team got to the World Series. Knebel wasn't good and Robertson was an imperfect replacement but the fact that Alvarado had two bad games against the Astros wasn't really the story of the series.

Closers are unreliable and the ones that are perceived to be reliable are overpriced and then become unreliable. Hader is a very good one obviously but his turn will come too, and in the meantime he costs far too much. There isn't really any other sure thing in the free agent market. They'll sign someone - Liam Hendricks? Aroldis Chapman? Hector Neris? David Robertson? Kimbrel himself? - but not necessarily to close. The best thing they could do is find another Strahm.

Last year they signed two All-Star closers (Soto and Kimbrel). The lesson from the last two years for me is that you don't need a traditional approach to bullpen management to have great success, not that a closer would take the Phillies from great success to perfection. And like most things it's better to develop a closer than sign one. None of the other three ALCS/NLCS teams had an experienced name brand closer (which is to say they weren't that when they took on the role).

I'm with Andy on the hitters, essentially, leopards don't change their spots, and some hitters aren't even willing to watch video or work with the batting machines. Should you treat those hitters like Allen Iverson not being willing to practice, or let them continue to do what works for them? Because five games in the ALCS is not the story of Trea Turner or Nick Castellanos's season either (and in Trea's case I believe he finally started hitting once he stopped doing some of what Long had asked him to try).

But... that also means the team really could use one hitter with a more disciplined approach, because none of the three young players are truly that either.

[andyb]

Oliver Dunn keeps getting mentioned from Arizona so I guess he is now likely to get rule 5 protected. Breakout player of the year award and then mentioned in articles like this:

Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Tiedemann, Jobe, Scott, DeLauter

https://www.mlb.com/news/arizona-fall-league-award-winners-2023

So here is the question as it relates to the bench. 2 spots are certain (backup catcher, shortstop) without names. That leaves 2 more. 1 will likely be the right-handed CF (Rojas or Pache). Then there is one more spot that ideally should be the 26th man that should play multiple positions. Clemens is a good fit as a left-handed bat that can play the 4 corner spots and fake 2B in a pinch. But Oliver Dunn is also left-handed and has the same defensive flexibility (he can learn 1B but has already played the OF and 2B and 3B).

If the team believes in Dunn then they should go after a right-handed bat in LF. Obviously a switch-hitter would be ideal, but a right-handed offense first bat (think Tommy Pham) really fits the roster if they can get 200 AB on their strong side of the platoon and 100-200 more as the situation dictates. That is a sub-$10 million investment in LF and no investment for the utility spot, freeing $25 million or more for the starting pitcher we need (Nola, Snell, trades for Burnes or Glasnow).

I really don't know if Dunn is any good. 900 OPS in Reading for a 26-year-old is vintage Brock Stassi and not really suggestive of a real major league bat. But maybe Dunn is different because he can play more defense and is more athletic? It will be interesting to see how the Phillies feel about him today with the protection deadline. Guessing he is protected or traded before/during the draft.

[phillychuck]

I agree with z and andy about hitters. Strike zone discipline is a skill, most hitters don't change their walk rates very much throughout their professional careers, even including their minor league seasons (once minor leaguers go through their adjustment periods to the majors). It's not as simple as asaying "don't swing at low breaking balls." Players who have swung at them since they were in high school will continue to swing at them with very few exceptions.

The Phils need a regular with a high walk rate besides Harper and Schwarber..don't know where they will find one. Hoskins was their other patient hitter and he is not going to return.

[zambonir]

I don't doubt that video and machine work can help make incremental improvements in pitch recognition, but most of the time "recognition" doesn't really happen until the AB is almost over. Every hittter still sits/guess on pitches to some extent. And when the bat speed starts to go, so does the vision (it's called hand-eye coordination for a reason).

So is there a 4-500 AB LF candidate out there who really bring discipline, power and OBP? I'm guessing not, because such a player would be worth 600 ABs (and the accompanying salary). Pham has really not been that good since 2019 (he was actually great for the Mets this year and then not so much for the DBacks). But that is the type of player they probably end up with for the role. The guys who are going to get three-year deals aren't necessarily needle-movers either (Teoscar and Lourdes are just more of what the Phillies already have).

[Austinfan]

What makes Dunn different (and Kroon) is their low number of minor league PA going into last season - that is, they went under the radar not because of a long career of mediocrity which would make a breakout season suspect (see Cave), but b/c between injuries and COVID they lost a couple seasons where they might have developed at 23-24 and been seen as more legitimate (and unavailable, it was a smart move looking for COVID outliers).

As far as "hitters changing their spots," if you look at Castellanos's season, when he was red hot it was when he laid off the outside breaking ball and forced pitchers to give him something he could handle - it's not that he can't do it, it's that he loses focus. Same with Turner, when he was struggling he was chasing pitches and digging deep holes for himself. It's not like they're gonna walk 100 times a year but they can become more disciplined. I think in all sports, success can create problems for aging players, b/c they become resistant to change. We saw this with Howard who insisted on pulling the ball as his skills declined, even though he hit best when he drove the ball to the alleys. Compare to Harper, who has become more willing to use the whole field instead of focusing on moon shots to RF.

[zambonir]

Some potential/speculative names here (back-up plan starters, hitters ranging from Verdugo and Dylan Carlson to Arozarena). Another MLBTR post says Padres are trying to trade Scott Barlow who would kind of be another reclamation project (really good in 2021 and 2022, last year not so much, and due for a big arb bump).

Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates

[andyb]

The lack of at bats does not make them THAT different. Everybody lost a year during the pandemic. Lots of players have injuries. It is just very rare for players to succeed after first doing well at age 26 or 27 in the minors. We can celebrate it if they do improve. We just should not expect it and their age IS a reason to think they are really not that great (both Dunn and Kroon). Becoming a major league utility player is really not that special. Dunn and Kroon are probably not good enough to succeed in larger roles.

[andyb]

Compare to Harper, who has become more willing to use the whole field instead of focusing on moon shots to RF.

Except Harper has not become more willing to use the whole field. Outside of his rookie year his percentage of opposite field hits has been pretty consistent. Best years were 2021, 2017, and 2018. In 2023 his opposite field percentage was 25.7% as opposed to his career average of 25.3%. He just has not changed much in the past decade. His chase percent has increased and is about 5% higher than the major league average. He has become a better hitter as he has become more aggressive.

Bryce Harper Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics

[Austinfan]

His chase % has probably increased b/c he has the lowest rate of strikes thrown to him in the league.

[andyb]

His chase % has probably increased b/c he has the lowest rate of strikes thrown to him in the league.

It is a direct result of him being aggressive on the first pitch. We have seen that. It is part of his strategy and Long's strategy.

[Callison]

Know how to keep a Phils fan in suspense?

While we're waiting, what do the experts think about Yamamoto as an SP option? The Phils aren't expected to be interested, but should they be? Could be better than Nola or Snell. Too risky for you? It's a sweet idea to keep him from the Mets.

I also see the Phils are looking at Hader, who's set to get a record breaking contract for a RP. I was disappointed when the Pads decided to tough out the season and hang on to everybody cause I always thought he could make the Phils pen beyond dominant. (I don't think the Phils were thinking about it, but I was wishing they would.) Might be an option though, especially if the Phils don't close a top SP. Looks like the Phils are prepared to let Kimbrel go. That's cold, IMHO - only fatigue, IMHO, at the end of the season.

Do the Phils have enough talent to trade for Juan Soto? If the Phils acquire an OF, here's hoping the guy is a serious hitter. Soto qualifies. Expensive Soto.

[Chris23]

In an interview today, Jim Salisbury claimed that the Phillies have legit interest in Yamamoto. That is significant, I think, since he has real sources in the organization.