Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[julio]

The Phillies do have some solid prospects coming up in the next few years, at some point you can't block them with over 30 players on bad contracts.

Sure you can! I mean, there are consequences, but if you're a modern American "manager," and you're only interested in short-term results (you're getting out before it hits the fan), you absolutely can do something like this.

I'm not recommending it...

[andyb]

We actually don't have a lot of prospect position players that project to be above average regulars. Even Rojas projects to be average for a ML starter (good on D, below average on O). Crawford and Miller are about it for the above average regular projections at the moment and even they are both less than 50-50 to achieve that.

Average regulars like Bohm are useful as cost-effective roster spot holders, but they are also easily replaced if the team can find somebody better.

[zambonir]

haha good old Travis, was he gonna be the next Scott Rolen?

I don't think Matt Chapman is a very likely scenario, but if it was, I wonder what MLBTR's thinking is about the other piece of it? Does Bohm get traded for pitching to replace Nola? Or does he move to 1B (which is not really a good idea).

These are still not the Giles Phillies, there's no reason to think this ownership group won't eat some money (and, indeed, plans to) on some of these contracts eventually. But for the next two years it is very much a win-now window.

And there aren't really that many prospects knocking on the door at the power/corner spots. If any. At some point in the next 18 months they probably will indeed trade away one or two prospects from the few areas of depth/redundancy. So far they have done a good job not doing that (albeit at the price of both money and comp picks).

[zambonir]

Do you think Rhys and Scott Boras are leaning in that direction?

Boras leans that way if he has to. Rhys obviously didn't sign with him expecting to be an unattractive free agent, but those are the breaks for now. Boras is very fond of pillow deals or opt-outs and he's also had multiple big-name clients (Arrieta, Kyle Lohse) who were forced to take last-minute cheaper deals after nobody snapped them up for months of the off-season.

Boras also isn't stupid. If Rhys takes a one-year deal to rebuild his value and only puts up the same season he did in 2022 - or worse, if he's slow to get his groove back post-injury - he'll get even less money and security than he might on a modest 2-3 year deal.

But it really comes down to the part we don't know - how much does Rhys want to stay and how much do the Phillies want him to?

[Callison]

Fleming and Mercado - shopping in the bargain basement to replace this years' prospects that never produced. I like it. A lot. (Maybe the Phils can trade Covey, Marte, Belatti and Ortiz for Sborz?) I hope they sign a couple more. Might get lucky. At worst they will be NEW prospects and the fans can have hope for them. The Phils' scouts see talent that others can't see. The bottom of the Phils pen could be stronger.

Regarding Hoskins, no QO says pretty clearly Harper will be at 1B AND the Phils are shopping for an OF. Which I hope is Bellinger. Hoskins has been a great Phillie and I'll be sorry to lose him if he goes. I think he'll find another team where he can start. If not, or if the offers are unattractive, I think he likes the Phils and would be OK as a bench player. I like him plenty as a bench player, too, on the Phils' terms.

What I hope we don't see is Ohtani signing with the Dodgers or the Braves or the Yanks. OK with the Mariners.

Snell is also a FA prize and I hope the Phils are after him.

Plenty of drama in Hot Stove land, especially for the Phils, who seem to be about a player short of a WS title.

[bkox]

Snell is also a FA prize and I hope the Phils are after him.

I dont. He will cost us a draft pick again. And he gave up 5BB per 9 innings last year.. Im not sure LSP's heart can take that

[julio]

Snell is also a FA prize and I hope the Phils are after him.

I dont. He will cost us a draft pick again. And he gave up 5BB per 9 innings last year.. Im not sure LSP's heart can take that

Two draft picks... just for the record. We're luxury tax payers, so signing a QO'ed free agent costs us our second and fifth picks.

[andyb]

And international allocations on top of that.

[bkox]

Two draft picks... just for the record. We're luxury tax payers, so signing a QO'ed free agent costs us our second and fifth picks.

yikes. DIdnt realize that. Snell doesnt have the track record to give up all that IMO.

[zambonir]

Bellinger is also going to be waaaayyy out of the Phillies' price range. MLBTR is going with 12 years, $264 (which is admittedly not that much in terms of cash/AAV, but Phillies don't need a third player tied up that way).

I don't disagree that they need to do a little something more though. Last year the surprises were Walker (a lot of people thought that after Turner they'd just have to sign a cheap #5 to go with Falter and Sanchez and the dream of Painter) and how aggressive they were with the bullpen (Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel on top of that). This year it could easily be trading for an OF. The available FA OFs just don't do much for me compared to Hoskins. Many are on their way to being DHs themselves.

If not Nola, Montgomery is the guy. Gray has a QO too.

[bkox]

Bellinger is also going to be waaaayyy out of the Phillies' price range

I wouldnt want Belli anyway. I need to see more than 1 year to be sure hes really back. He spent 2 years forgetting how to hit.

[Les229]

Yeah, the family convinced me to move back to Wilmington, Delaware., Well, a 20 year vacation on the beach and Spring Training is not too bad. It's funny in a way. It is harder for me to get Phillies' televised games here than it was anywhere else I lived and worked and we are just 25 miles from the stadium.

About Harper, I want to see him in the outfield before I dismiss him. even if he can only give a couple of good years, It will be interesting to see how Dombrowski replaces Hoskins and Nola. My biggest wish is that he stops trying to man the bullpen with reclamation projects and goes out and signs the most dependable closer on the market. I would also like to see then replace Hoskins' bat somewhere in the lineup.

[zambonir]

Not sure he's any riskier than Schwarber or Castellanos were, or Hoskins is. With more skills/higher upside than all of them (and younger than all of them at the time of signing). But if there's five other teams out there who are 100% convinced he deserves the highest/longest possible deal, godspeed to them.

There's really no such thing as a dependable free agent closer Les. Hader is going to get a crazy deal and then will have several disappointing seasons along the way. Diaz already had a history of being awful and then got freakishly injured the minute he got his payday. Lidge was the best we ever had and he was only actually great for one year, inconsistent but ultimately okay for another, and then bad (and the reason we got him in the first place was because he'd already gone through that entire cycle with Houston).

Developing your own closers, as the Phillies have essentially done of late, is always the way to go, and not having a closer at all, as they've also done more often than not, is also a better way to win games. And the best thing of all is to develop them and then let them go fail for someone else (like Giles did for the Astros after the Phillies traded him, and Kimbrel ultimately did for multiple teams post-Braves.)

[julio]

Les229's comment about replacing Hoskins... Effectively, Dombrowski already has replaced Hoskins. Rhys spent the entire 2023 season on the 60-day IL. If he leaves through free agency, the 2023 roster is not impacted at all. He wasn't there.

Again, Hoskins is a guy I've followed closely since he was in A-ball. I've tried to find a way to get a "Hoskins" Sydney Blue Sox jersey (without success). I will feel the loss if he's not a Phillie (I felt it in 2023). But given the roster realities, unless one of the other DH+ guys somehow leaves, I don't see the Phillies re-signing Rhys.

That said, if they do re-sign him, I'll enjoy continuing to root for him!

[bkox]

Putting this here since it mentions 40 man roster and rule 5

This is from Jonathon Mayo's email that came out today titled "4 unranked prospects breaking out in the AFL"

Oliver Dunn, UTIL, Phillies: The Phillies got Dunn, now 26, as a Minor League phase Rule 5 guy. Meaning he came with almost no expectations. And yes, Reading is a good place to hit (though his power showed up on the road, too), and he was a little old for the Double-A Eastern League, but Dunn has taken the opportunity to come to the AFL and run with it. The only thing that’s going to stop him is him leaving a bit early … because he’s getting married! He’s third in the AFL with his 1.122 OPS and has gone 12-for-12 in steals. I don’t know if he’s done enough to earn a 40-man roster spot, but I have to wonder if he’s entered the conversation or could be on other teams’ radars for the Major League phase of this year’s Rule 5 Draft. He loves to play, all over the field, and that kind of utility type could find a spot on a big league bench.

[Patchmk88]

I've been hard on Nola at times, but in my opinion, he is by far the best pitcher in free agency (assuming you aren't counting a healthy Ohtani). I'd be pretty disappointed if the contracts are similar and we get Montgomery instead of Nola.

[Austinfan]

ITYS, career was stalled by injury and COVID, got a chance to play with the Phillies and broke out, and is continuing this in the AFL. I'd be surprised if they don't put him on the 40, they have worse players already on it.

[julio]

Well, figure they sent Dunn to the AFL for a reason, and pretty obviously the reason was to further evaluate what he might be able to do. He's given them a pretty clear answer, at least in the context of the AFL.

[andyb]

I'd still bet they won't put him on the roster unless they see him as a viable contender for a roster spot this year. 40-man spots are just too valuable to hold for a utility prospect. Do they see him as better than Clemens for instance this season? Only if the answer is yes would they protect him. FWIW I don't think they'll protect De La Cruz either. Just too many holes in his swing now to stick in the majors with another team.

[Jazzhead]

Also... If the Phillies really wanted to bring Hoskins back, they would have extended a QO. They didn't.

I'm of two minds about that, especially because both Hoskins and Harper are represented by Scott Boras, and essentially competing for the same position on the same team. (That strikes me as a blatant conflict of interest on Boras' part, but that's only if Hoskins and/or Harper give a darn.)

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Phillies agreed as a courtesy to Boras to not extend the QO, thereby improving Hoskins' market and allowing him to get the best deal as he can - and which could well end up being a one or two year (with opt out) pillow contract. If that's all that's out there, then Rhys could well end up back with the Phightins, unless Hoskins and Boras both conclude that he'd have more playing time with another club.

I think Hoskins could work out with the Phils even if Casty is retained. At least one of Harper, Schwarber and Hoskins would DH, and at least one of Harper, Schwarber or Hoskins would play first base or a corner outfield spot, with Casty in the other. That means one of that bunch doesn't start each game, based on match-ups, and we don't compromise our defense because Marsh sticks in the other corner outfield spot (with Rojas in center). The odd man out becomes the big bench bat we lacked last year.