Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[andyb]

I think Hoskins has no clue what sort of offers he'll get on the open market. Clearly he is a 2nd/3rd tier free agent and he might need to go to a bad team to get a longer deal. He might prefer to stay with the Phillies in that situation.

And remember - we get a 4th round comp pick. That is it. Not really enough to make it worth risking a few million dollars if the Phillies are still undecided about how they want to get a bat (for OR or 1B).

[zambonir]

I'm sure Hoskins (which is to say Boras) has a pretty good clue. Which is why they might have taken the QO. I doubt there was any courtesy involved, other than to say, "just a heads-up, we're not going to extend the QO."

And yeah - the 4th rounder just wasn't worth it. Not that valuable if you get it and definitely not worth $5 million (if $15 is closer to your target for Hoskins or his replacement). Also while the Phillies could have afforded the money for Rhys's QO, they probably don't want that AAV number on the tax calculation.

I think the idea that there is room for all the bats is the same as the idea that you could trade one of the bats. It sounds great in theory - "just reduce everyone's playing time!" or "just pick up half of Casty's salary!" but less likely in practice.

That said, injuries happen. Injuries have happened, and to all of these exact players (except Casty I guess who merely was bad for a year). It's not that hard to imagine a world where the Phillies leave Harper at 1B and sign a RH power bat to share LF with Marsh... and then one of Schwarber, Harper, Castellanos or the new guy misses the same 60 games we might worry about otherwise "taking away" from one of the on purpose.

[Austinfan]

Marsh hit LH pitching well enough to make him the everyday LF, he's not going to improve unless you play him.
He posted a RC+ of 96 against LHs, but improved as the season progressed.
And he's a plus defensive LF.
He'll be 26 next season, time to make him a full-time starters.

Rojas is a tougher issue, Pache has pretty much proven he can't hit, Rojas has upside.

[zambonir]

You're not wrong, but Marsh was also still protected somewhat. Not only against lefties but in general - just 408 ABs. He still looks better as the primary CF in some ways, since neither Pache nor Rojas will hit RHP. Even if Rojas makes the team and is the starter you'll want to sit him once or twice as week. And if Rojas doesn't make the team than March is the CF, period. Either way you still need that 4th OF bat (unless Harper is in the OF in which case he and Castellanos are your starting corner OFs and you need a 1B).

Either way I don't see Pache having much of a future other than as a bench piece/placeholder for Rojas. He's probably rebuilt his trade value (i.e. to the point of having at least some) though. A lower-budget/rebuilding team could still try to play him every day or he'd be welcome on more than a few benches.

[Lucky_Beagle]

With Hoskins and the QO I will only be disappointed if he signs a 1 year deal somewhere and has a good year then that team puts the QO on him.

[zambonir]

Hey that team could still be the Phillies!

One assumes Rhys will want to sign with a contender, but you never know how that will be defined or if a lesser team might make a better financial offer. He could go somewhere and get traded mid-season too.

[allentown]

Hoskins is worth less than Schwarber. I don't think he's worth less than Castellanos. I also don't think Castellanos for $100 million made sense as a signing. Since we have both Schwarber and Castellanos, I think the team is strongest with Harper at 1B.

[BostonRoss]

I'm thinking that before his injury Harper wasn't much better than Castellanos if at all, and now he has to deal with the elbow and not having played there in a while. The stats that zambonir cited imply that as well. But Nick is not a very good outfielder either. My concern is having them both out there. It might be interesting to see if the Phillies might be better with Harper in the OF and Castellanos at 1B, but Nick hasn't played there much if at all (although he was a 3B originally).

[julio]

Also while the Phillies could have afforded the money for Rhys's QO, they probably don't want that AAV number on the tax calculation.

I'm not sure it really makes any difference, z. We'll presumably be paying the luxury tax regardless, given the contracts already on the books and the pending arbitration awards.

[zambonir]

Nick said he was going to bring his 1B glove when Hall first got hurt, but it was never seriously discussed. And Schwarbs remains a non-option I think.

So let's just assume Harper is the 1B and Rhys isn't coming back. It's been pretty strongly implied that Rojas won't come into Clearwater as the starting CF, which means Marsh is. Who do you sign for LF (with Pache as Marsh's back-up/the extra defensive OF)? The top FAs after Bellinger (who, let's be honest, would actually be perfect - he's the antidote to all the other defensive flaws because he can play all three OF spots as well as 1B) per MLBTR (with their projections) are:

Teoscar Hernandez (4/80M)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (4/54M)
Jung Hoon Lee (5/50M)

Jorge Soler (3/45)
(essentially a DH as is JD Martinez and of course Rhys. Plus Mitch Garver, don't know if he can play other positions besides catcher)

Harrison Bader (2/20)

Whit Merrifield (2/18)
(can he play LF?)

Jason Heyward (2/16)

Brandon Belt (1/15)

Hoon Lee is 25 years old and an OBP machine so I'd certainly be interested. Bader and Merrifield maybe. Heyward is the essence of a part-time LH bat who still fields well but do they prefer a RH? Belt could be your 1B (big LHB, takes walks).

But they are more likely to be shopping for a part-time/one-year player especially if Marsh end up in LF by June.

It's true that they don't need to "replace" Rhys but they also missed Rhys. The question is how can they get better, and at what positions? Running it back may or may not be fine until the deadline but we also can't assume all the returning players are better next year (young or old).

[DurhamBull]

Do y'all think the Phils have already given up on Pache, who is only 24? An OF of Marsh/Pache/Castellanos would feature plus defenders at two positions. Pache's .725 OPS at AAA doesn't suggest great things in the majors, but that might still be a decent option since he's already on the roster and inexpensive.

[andyb]

Apparently athleticism runs in the family for Brandon Marsh:

Buford grad Erin Marsh Wins Gold at Pan American Games

[zambonir]

I don't think they've given up on him at all but he and Rojas are ultimately redundant. I think if Rojas is in the minors that should indeed be the OF at least half the time, with a bigger bat in LF (and Marsh in CF) the rest of the time. Pache ended up finishing last season with a (very SSS) .736 OPS and 100 OPS + in MLB. That is good enough for an elite CF but Rojas probably still has more upside (and speed).

File it under 'good problem to have.' His presence buys time for Rojas if that's how they want to go. He showed enough that they could also probably flip him for a bullpen piece or lottery ticket if they decide Rojas is an Opening Day starter. And if he plays for a while and thrives he'll be worth even more than that (or, in the more extreme scenario, either Rojas or Crawford will be).

[bkox]

But can she hit a fastball and lay off a slider?

[BostonRoss]

None of those guys excite me. Jung Hoon Lee is a big unknown but is the only one young enough to warrant a longer contract. I might take a chance on Teoscar Hernandez, who is a good hitter but not much of an outfielder (though probably better than Castellanos and Harper). But probably not four years. Same with Gurriel, who really doesn't seem to have a position (he started with Toronto as a shortstop!).

However, free agency isn't the only way to add a player. Maybe Dombrowski can come up with a creative trade for a player who is pricing himself out of a smaller market.

What's up with Randall Grichuk these days?

[Les229]

I felt that Hoskins, along with Harper has been a major part of the spirit on this team the past few years. The Phils have a good thing going with the fans and the city and I believe Hoskins has been a part of it. I would hate to see it walk away one at a time. That being said, I don't believe they intend to resign him.

[julio]

I felt that Hoskins, along with Harper has been a major part of the spirit on this team the past few years. The Phils have a good thing going with the fans and the city and I believe Hoskins has been a part of it. I would hate to see it walk away one at a time. That being said, I don't believe they intend to resign him.

I know where you're coming from, Les. I feel it. But of course, they always leave, sooner or later. Some as free agents, some by trade, some by retirement or injury. Schmitty. Bull. Chase. J-Roll. The only thing that stays the same is that the roster changes, every year.

I kinda think this die was cast with the Harper, Schwarber and Castellanos signings, all big contracts, all long-term. We always understood that as these guys age, the "old slow guy" positions (1B, DH) were going to get crowded, and that sooner or later, something would have to give. These guys are all about the same age; Rhys is the one whose contract came up first, so he's the one on the bubble.

They could find a way to bring him back, short-term, but in a way that's just kicking the can down the road.

[Les229]

What you are saying is true. What I was saying is that attitude and team harmony is a part of their never out of it spirit. That is a part of the mix..

[julio]

What you are saying is true. What I was saying is that attitude and team harmony is a part of their never out of it spirit. That is a part of the mix..

I agree.

That said, if the Phils aren't interested in bringing Rhys back, or if they're not interested in bidding for his services... watch the San Francisco Giants. Joc Pederson is a free agent, which means the Giants are in the market for a DH. Hoskins and his wife are both California natives; Hoskins grew up rooting for the Giants. It's a fairly obvious fit.

[zambonir]

Wait shouldn't we be signing Joc Pederson?

(I know, LHB, and probably a platoon player to boot. But he can still play the field, high OBP.)

In the end if Harper is staying at 1B they are probably just going to sign a one-year deal guy or part-time player to ultimately share LF with Marsh (Jake Cave but better and RH), with Marsh also still continuing to play a little CF. I don't feel like they are in a great position to make a trade of any note which would probably mean either taking back an overpaid vet or giving up prospects the Phillies don't really have. And if you see Rojas in CF by July 1 if not sooner you really can't sign a LF to a multi-year deal.

I still vote for the more dramatic trade - of Nick - or just bring back Hoskins and start the year with Harper in the OF and then see how it all plays out with both Rojas and injuries and playing time. If the clubhouse really wants their "captain" back it can be worked out. But in the end, they're all businessmen too.