Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[bkox]

#Rays LHP Josh Fleming claimed by #Phillies

— Marc Topkin ( @TBTimes_Rays ) November 6, 2023

The first transaction of the offseason for the Phillies is here.

It’s an odd one. Fleming is a soft-tossing lefty who doesn’t miss many bats, and he has no minor league options left to play with.

He does have experience as a SP. Could hope to sneak him thru waivers later on? https://t.co/UHeC3CBgN1

— Alex Carr ( @AlexCarrMLB ) November 6, 2023

[zambonir]

Sometimes these claims turn out to be interesting, sometimes they don't even last beyond pre-Rule 5 cutdowns. Obviously this is a guy Kilambi would have known.

[Austinfan]

Josh Fleming

I don't think he's good enough that options matter, probably just a body for the AAA rotation.

[andyb]

Less about options but more about just using a 40-man spot until you have a better idea. If he is on the 40 then he competes for a major league roster spot (remember the Tampa connection). If he gets dropped over the winter he likely goes someplace else where he has a better shot at making the team. The Phillies are probably intrigued by the change because of Sanchez, but this is as much about not having to add anyone from the system to protect from the rule 5 draft. De La Cruz might be the only one this year and even he might not be protected.

[David_Criss]

Isn't he a Plassmeyer like arm? Wonder what the Phillies scouts saw in him? He will be 28 on opening day.

[bkox]

Accidently posted this on the general MLB thread

Phillies are only giving the $20.325M qualifying offer to Aaron Nola. So no QO for Rhys Hoskins. There’s still a decent chance he could go back there though.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) November 6, 2023

[bkox]

Speaking of Plassmeyer

Phillies Outright Michael Plassmeyer, Erich Uelmen https://t.co/MOQpnlpcAJ pic.twitter.com/luoXrdQU4a

— MLB Trade Rumors ( @mlbtraderumors ) November 6, 2023

[andyb]

40-man roster at 37 now after these moves. And there are still some guys we could easily lose in addition to Fleming (McKinley Moore, Luis Ortiz, Dylan Covey, Garrett Stubbs, Weston Wilson, Jake Cave). Even guys like Muzziotti and Hall could go in the right situation.

Guys with no options: Sosa, Pache, Cave, Fleming, Bellatti, Covey, Marchan.

Guys with an option that could be sent down (and are worth a little more over the winter): Nelson, Stubbs, Ortiz, Marte, Castro, Muzziotti, Clemens among others.

It is a strange top-heavy roster right now. But that might give us the flexibility to add someone in the rule 5 draft where better teams rarely have room.

[zambonir]

and now 38

The Phillies have acquired RHP Michael Mercado from the Tampa Bay Rays and selected his contract to the Major League roster. In exchange for Mercado, the Phillies have sent RHP Adam Leverett and cash considerations to Tampa Bay. The Phillies’ 40-man roster is currently at 38.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) November 6, 2023

[zambonir]

I feel like it's not that good a chance. The lack of QO makes it easier for another team to give him a decent offer, be it one year or three. And Boras also doesn't rush these things. Rhys could come back to us if he can't get what he wants out there but by then the Phillies will probably have signed another RHB for OF or 1B.

[Squire]

95Ks in 62 innings across AA and AAA last year for Mercado. Mid 4.7 ish ERA though. Because of walks. Only allowed 48 hits in 62 innings Was a high second round pick out of high school in 2017.

[zambonir]

Seems like the usual Phillies bullpen project for this regime.

And a long-term one too (full set of options, per Matt W whose Twitter is currently locked).

[BostonRoss]

I think the Phillies didn't want to give Rhys the QO because if he accepted it, he might be a very expensive wrong side of a platoon. Or they would have to play both Harper and Castellanos in the OF, which would hurt defensively. Sadly, I just don't see a fit for Hoskins.

[zambonir]

Well yeah, if they'd QO'ed him and he accepted that would indeed force Harper into the OF (or even worse, Schwarber). They also must have had a pretty good idea that he would take it. Still might have gone differently if they weren't over the CBT threshold and could have gotten greater compensation. A 4th round pick isn't actually worth the $5 million (or whatever the difference turns out being between the QO and what they spend to replace or re-sign Rhys.

I gotta admit, I think the team needs to be aggressive this off-season. They signed a huge free agent and built a really great bullpen last year and in the end the team wasn't that much better (yeah there's the whole after June 3 thing but that - as well as injuries - also happened in 2022) and had many of the same flaws - and they were exposed a round earlier to boot. I don't know who are how exactly but merely re-signing Nola and replacing Hoskins/upgrading bench doesn't seem like enough.

Of course they also don't have to try and win the division or 95 games, so some of it can be done mid-season.

[Les229]

I agree that defensive awards are more guestimates than actual factual statistics. Also the official scoring on defense has become atrocious (ask Larry Anderson). There are much fewer errors awarded and more questionable hits. I have followed this game for 73 years now and I have never seen scoring this bad. The pitchers' ERA suffers. Les 229

[Les229]

I have been thinking about this since Harper started to play first base. Personally I don't think that Harper is a bad outfielder. The question is, how will his arm be come spring? He is fast and had a very strong arm before the injury. Well, they didn't make the offer and doubt if they will get in the bidding.

[Austinfan]

I have no use for Fleming, Plassmeyer redux.

Mercado is interesting, 2nd rd pick in 2017, TJ surgery in 2019, COVID killed 2020, so while he's 24, he missed two full seasons. Was converted to RP last season, racked up the Ks but struggled with control. So there may be significant upside left.

[fish]

Mercado is interesting, 2nd rd pick in 2017, TJ surgery in 2019, COVID killed 2020, so while he's 24, he missed two full seasons. Was converted to RP last season, racked up the Ks but struggled with control. So there may be significant upside left.

His body, delivery and stuff have a pretty strong resemblance to 2023 Noah Song. He seems to throw a lot of fastballs (94-95) that when it’s located well has good boring action. I didn’t see him get many swings and misses at it, but a lot of foul balls. However, his curveball is a killer and unlike the predictability of Kerkering’s slider, he throws so many fastballs that it makes his curve that much more effective.

[BostonRoss]

Les, good to hear from you! Hope you’re doing well. Ironically, I am in Tampa right now, and I assume you are not. But I’m leaving shortly.

My understanding about “advanced” defensive metrics is that they consider plays made, and so scoring on a play not made wouldn’t affect them. But I agree with you that too many plays that should be errors are scored hits, and this undoubtedly affects our perceptions of the defense of players we don’t see that often.

As for Harper, we haven’t seen him play the outfield in a long time, but I would think he is worse now than he was when he joined the Phillies due to his being older and rustier, and the injury might still affect him. But I didn’t think he looked that good defensively before the injury, and the stats bore that out. He’s better than Schwarber, but much worse than Marsh, I think. It’s bad enough that we have to play Castellanos in the outfield; Having Harper out there in the outfield too is too much for me.

[DurhamBull]

It’s bad enough that we have to play Castellanos in the outfield; Having Harper out there in the outfield too is too much for me.

I guess you think Harper is worse than Castellanos? I don't necessarily disagree, just wondering. I think the defensive difference between the two is kind of a wash. Harper has (had?) the better arm, but since it's surgically repaired I don't know if I want to see him airing it out like he used to.

That got me to thinking whether Harper is more likely to stay healthy at 1B than in the OF. At 1B he's less likely to run into a wall, but collisions with other players happen more often there (as we saw not too long ago). 1B is less wear and tear on his legs, though, which may be relevant if the Phils still want him to be a force in his late 30s.