Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

I mean I don't think it's that hard to define. He was expected to either be a good enough hitter to stay at 3B or an even better hitter who could move to 1B. Those expectations may have been lofty, but they existed at the time. In that sense he was a bust. But as a guy who actually got as far as he did (including making the majors in the first place) and had a credible, if ordinary, major league career (and the accompanying benefits), a success.

Still not convinced Bohm will end his time in Philadelphia looking that much better, but he's a bit of a folk hero who also enjoys being on good teams that don't need him to be one of the four best hitters. They needed Franco to be one of the two best a few of those years.

[bkox]

Shockingly, Franco ranks 25th all time in HRs in a Phillies uniform

[julio]

I mean I don't think it's that hard to define. He was expected by delusional fans to either be a good enough hitter to stay at 3B or an even better hitter who could move to 1B. Those expectations may have been lofty, but they existed at the time.

Fixed it for you, z?

[bkox]

Anyone want to bring Hector back? I wouldnt mind giving him the $10M Kimbrel got this year.

OPTION: #Astros RHP Hector Neris has declined his player option for the 2024 season. He'll receive a $1M buyout.

— MLB Transaction Tracker ( @MLBMovesTracker ) November 4, 2023

[zambonir]

Yeah but would you give him $12 million? Or 2/20? Because he just turned down $8.5 (well, 7.5 since got a buyout. But he's obviously eyeing a bigger or longer deal). And that was a bargain deal for Kimbrel, if he'd actually been good last year he would have done better (and apparently will this year).

Wink aside, julio, I'm not sure expectations for Maikel were delusional, unlike, say, the people who thought Asche could be another Utley. Of course in both cases they were also skewed by the fact that there were so few prospects in the system, period.

I did not even try to include Roman Quinn in this!

[bkox]

Yeah.. Maikel was ranked very high by the people who do it for a living

And that was honestly all from one good year in the minors when he hit .320 31HR 103 RBI and 926OPS in 2013 over 2 levels.

But I remember it was Keith Law who kept warning us that he had some kinda hitch in his swing (want to say it was called an arm bar) and that he would struggle in the MLB.

BTW.. Franco is still active. He played in Japan this year but struggled badly. 644 OPS.

[zambonir]

It's hard to believe Franco and Bryce Harper were actually teammates (though I also remember how Maikel got off to a hot start in that offense).

[bkox]

Zack Wheeler wins a gold glove. No other Phillie wins

[phillychuck]

And Wheeler is not the best fielding pitcher on his own team...GG awards are complete crap. Bobby Abreu won one, and as much as I love him as a player, fielding was not his strength.

[andyb]

The awards are better now that there are widely distributed advanced analytics. Ranger fell short of the innings limit the second time in a row. Maybe that limit is too high, but remember when fielders would win with like 30-40 games played?

Wheeler deserves it if controlling the running game is considered part of fielding on the mound.

[zambonir]

Not sure I entirely understand how this would work, other than, obviously, the Phillies would presumably rather not increase Harper's AAV, so they could give him money on the back end that he may or may not ever earn (even if he says he'd like to play until he's 45). I guess you could work a bonus in there somehow too.

Bryce Harper’s camp continues to hint at desire for contract extension with...

[allentown]

Why? He already has an overly long contract at huge $. He's not underpaid. He's hitting the point where decline is to be expected. And yes, I realize that his contract has been a plus -- for now, but soon it will not be. While Harper will certainly be able to cash a check at the age 45 he mentions, he certainly won't be able to play baseball. I don't want the Phillies to be paying Harper's AAV farther into the future. I don't want him beyond the term of his current deal, very likely not that long.

[zambonir]

For sure, it's a preposterous idea in a rational world. But I'm not sure this blogger is misreading the tea leaves. Whether that's because Boras always gets his way or because Harper's not as purely selfless as we'd like to think or simply because Middleton's relationship with both is so strong that he will do it as a goodwill gesture (and really, so long as it doesn't directly hinder the team's ability to do other things, why shouldn't he? It's his money).

The crux of the argument seems to be that since Bryce didn't take an opt-out out of the goodness of his heart the Phillies should bring his deal closer to current market value out of the goodness of theirs. There is no reason to do this in a vacuum. But Bryce has that kind of symbolic power, and Boras sure has that kind of negotiating style.

And it gets even more interesting if the Phillies actually need to sign a major Boras client this off-season. Rhys is one of those, of course, but so are the two best American pitchers not named Nola.

I don't know that this actually happens this off-season. But it probably happens.

[zambonir]

Meanwhile PhilliesNation (which I do think does good work covering the team even though their model is still clickbaity) had some Nola predictions.

Phillies Nation Roundtable: Aaron Nola contract predictions – Phillies Nation

Kelly predicted the Cubs get him at 6/192 (32 AAV) while Lugardo believes the Phillies simply won't let him go with a long/lower-AAV deal (9/195, 21.66 AAV). One of the other two guys predicts the Phillies give him the same deal as the theoretical Cubs offer.

Of course on the more clickbait side of things they also have two posts talking about which other teams are after Nola, and the possibility that the Phillies prefer Snell, both based on unnamed speculation in a Nightengale column.

[bkox]

He will be 39 when his contract expires now.. Does he want 6 more years? At at what value? The only way would consider doing that is with team options for the entire 6 years.

[BostonRoss]

I kind of feel like Gold Glove Awards are the least representative of all the awards of what they attempt to reward. For sure, things have gotten better with the use of advanced metrics and the newer eligibility requirements. But the voting is still done by managers and coaches who have seen the players they are voting for only a few times given the relatively balanced schedule. And the while defensive metrics have improved, they are still not as robust as offensive metrics. They vary year to year more than players' actual defensive skills vary, in my opinion.

Since managers can't vote for their own players, I remember a funny situation in the 1980s. Whitey Herzog couldn't vote for Ozzie Smith, and so he voted for Steve Jeltz, who was a September call-up that year. Actually, that was probably a reasonable choice.

[BostonRoss]

I think given who Bryce's agent is, they will always be looking for more money. I think Bryce is smart enough not to say too much publicly, but he is the one who hired Boras and stuck with him.

I'm trying to think of extensions on high dollar contracts (including opt-out re-signings) that worked out well for the teams. Can't think of any off the top of my head.

[Patchmk88]

Maybe they restucture his current deal with an extension to give us some more salary room in the near term and really over the length of the deal. That would be the only reason I could see the Phillies wanting to even talk about an extension and even in that scenario I’d have a hard time seeing it happen.

[zambonir]

My guess is that unless it all goes really bad and he gets traded, Bryce ends up owning a small % of the team or has some kind of lifetime services contract (which could also defer some of the money) in the long run. But in the short-term they still have to rebuild a winning core around him and Trea (and, presumably Nola) even as their own performance wanes.

But, if it can be done without hindering the team's spending/payroll, that is really all that matters. Obviously the timing is based on the fact that the team is currently printing money, and will continue to do so if they can contend at the same level over the next couple of seasons. Which is also why Boras is savvy enough to put this out there now, while things are good and Bryce is still only 31, rather than in two years.

[andyb]

Qualifying offers by 5 PM today. Nola is a certainty. I am guessing they decline on Hoskins but are still open to signing him (hopefully for less at least before incentives).