I still think you QO Rhys if there's a 50-50 chance you want him. Boras clients generally don't take the QO. And the QO itself is part of the leverage to get him to come back on a cheaper deal if he doesn't take it. The 4th-rounder is somewhat easy to walk away from but it's hardly nothing.
And if he does take it, who cares? I'd rather throw the guy an extra $5-8 million on a one year deal than go three years at a discount.
I just don't know that there is any reason to think he won't be fully recovered. Teams aren't going to be clamoring for him to play 1B, but that was already going to be true. At his age, if I were Boras, I'd be looking to take whatever multi-year deal is out there for him, not betting on him coming back this season (just based on his age and his 2022 performance) and delivering a year that gets him paid more next year.
I suppose the QO would be the best of both worlds in that regard - if he tanks this season at least he pocketed that $ before becoming a seven-figure player.
The problem, of course, isn't Hoskins. It's Harper. It's Castellanos. It's Schwarber. It's even Rojas (inasmuch as that determines where Marsh plays). If you're not at least open to the idea of trading Nick you probably can't do it.
But they're also probably not flying blind. They're allowed to negotiate before the QO deadline, if they want to make him a (short) multi-year offer or see if he'd take a one-year deal with incentives (both for ABs and playing 1B, just in case) and a second-year option trigger. There's no reason to think they'd be caught by surprise if they did make the QO.
