Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[fish]

I'm not trading Abel, Painter or Rojas for almost anyone.
It's not like we're loaded with top end talents in our system - we can't afford to trade any potential 1st tier players.

They are good prospects by Phillies standards, but so far they've just shown promise without the performance to support much confidence. I'd hate to lose any of them (and I'm more than likely going to watch more Phillies minor league games than major league games), but even a big free agent addition is just one step forward. If they do that, and only that, then it's a wasted half-measure. No way I trade any of them for a half-measure but if it's to try to push the needle close to the finish line...well, then it's time to try. But again, that's only in combination with other additions to strengthen the roster.

[allentown]

They are good prospects by Phillies standards, but so far they've just shown promise without the performance to support much confidence.

Which means you'd be trading them dirt cheap. The only reason one trades young, high-end talent is because one is so pessimistic that one can't believe one's development/training/medical staff are able to progress them. If DD believes that, then he hired the wrong people.

With an MLB team short of 85-wins, now is definitely not the time to trade our best young talents. A $10 million, iffy guy like Chapman is not the guy to trade for, even if the Phillies were closer to the finish line. Spend the $ on FA's, who cost only $ (with comp for QO players vanishing next year, the Phillies shouldn't sign any comp-required FAs this year).

[Aquapong]

I read they were having Abel purposely pitch backwards at times and his season was basically ignoring results and working on his pitches. I’m no worried about the numbers yet. When he gets to Reading I’ll worry about numbers. But just watch him…easy velocity, filthy movement.

Personally I’m not as high on Painter…he’s more of a straight power pitcher.

[zambonir]

I would like to hear that Herrera's salary is low enough to suggest his role is not a given. But I also would not be prepared to just hand that role to Haseley or Moniak. It would be nice to think that one or the other of them could be a 1.0 major leaguer this year, and that might also be what they get out of Herrera (let's hope that's his floor and the late 2018-2019 performance is behind him). But it's also possible Herrera puts up 3.0 WAR. He's still reasonably young and neither of the last two seasons were normal for him. If he does that the Phillies will look pretty smart, especially if the older and more expensive Kiermaier isn't better.

[Austinfan]

Patience with Painter, he's younger with a body that can still fill out (not just added velocity, but stamina to maintain velocity over 100+ pitches).

[Austinfan]

They also want to think in terms of keeping CF open if Rojas or Muzzioti emerge this season, they're good enough defensively that you could live with offensive growing pains if it allows you to fill LF with a good hit/limited range guy or platoon.

[EDmuch]

Wow !!! Braves just obtained Mat Olsen from the A's. So I guess they are going to get Freddie Freeman leave. Kind of a shocker.

[zambonir]

Acquiring Kiermaier would have left CF plenty open for either of those guys (they ain't coming this year). And if you acquire someone like Laureano you either trade him or trade the younger player when the time comes.

It's a needle that can't be threaded, but bottom line, barring a big change in fortune or roster construction: Aaron Nola, JT Realmuto, Zach Wheeler and, most likely, Rhys Hoskins and Zack Eflin - are never going to play in a World Series for the Phillies, let alone do so with Abel, Painter or Rojas as their teammates. So what's the goal for the next two seasons really? Same as it has been since 2019 I guess, wild card contention and luck. It's almost enough to make me miss when the team stunk because they were cheap.

[zambonir]

That's in the other thread.

But do we want to take a run at Freeman? Plenty of ABs for him and Rhys between the two spots. Obviously not cheap (or short).

[fish]

Which means you'd be trading them dirt cheap. The only reason one trades young, high-end talent is because one is so pessimistic that one can't believe one's development/training/medical staff are able to progress them. If DD believes that, then he hired the wrong people.

Well, it's not dirt cheap if you are getting back good big leaguers with some control. "You shouldn't trade any of them because they could be good in 3 years" doesn't help a team trying to win now. Again, I'm not suggesting they give anyone away, I'm just in favor of a deal if it is part of a larger spectrum of deals to improve the roster into a viable contender.

[Taudawg]

Baring a trade, I think Bohm is moving to 1b. Sounds like Didi might be at 3b if Stott shows he’s ready.

Did not realize link was posted in separate thread.

Shortstop competition? Didi Gregorius says he was told by Phillies to prepare...

[allentown]

But, 'win what' now. The 2021 Phillies won only 82 games -- apparently not a severe underperform, since the prior years they didn't win more than 81. We also are entering ST with the majority of our planned starters unlikely to be ready to go when the season starts. We might sneak into the playoffs this year, but we don't appear strong enough to advance, even if we throw away our best prospects on a foolish 'win now' bet.

I also have doubts about Chapman. At the $10 million he's likely to get in arb if he comes here (the Phillies can hardly mortgage the future in a big way to get him, then fight hard to reduce his arb award) he is fully priced. We can keep our talent and spend the $10 mill elsewhere.

[Taudawg]

Per Matt Gelb, Odubel’s deal is for 1.75 mil with additional 750k possible in incentives

[jimbomill]

Braves just obtained Mat Olsen

impressive

[andyb]

So we have somewhere in the $34-$35 million range under the threshold if we started at $49 million and added 2 $6 million relievers and Odubel.

I think most teams will leave several million dollars of room to account for injured players (JoJo Romero on the 60-day IL will earn the minimum but somebody else is on the 26-man roster), so really not much more than $30 million left to spend.

[xogfog]

As far as trading our top prospects, I'm trying to remember the last top prospect we traded turned out to be a star player elsewhere other than Sandberg, Bell and Jenkins ages ago. I don't agree with the reasoning that if the Phillies make the playoffs they couldn't win is a reason to not improve the team now.

[zambonir]

No issue with the Odubel signing at that price. That's barely more than Camargo got. At that price he can be a bench player, a platoon player, traded, cut. And I think it is probably better for Haseley and Moniak to start their years in AAA playing regularly (which, yeah, they also could have if platooning with Vierling in CF, but not good enough to do that).

Then again, while I agree with ATown - and Middleton for that matter - that the team is not close enough to a championship to take big swings - I'm just not sure there's any point to this team's current core without taking more big swings.

I'm actually slightly puzzled by the volume of bullpen moves, especially since Dombrowski (or maybe Girardi, can't remember) suggested they aren't done. They've already got 8 spots filled without even dipping into the 40-man depth or making one of the spots optionable.

I don't think Bohm is moving to 1B, I think he and Didi will both play 3B and they will both DH and Bohm might play 1B on the days Hoskins DHs (but so will JT). But Stott also has to make the team on Opening Day (or they have to get another SS) to definitely move Didi.

[Aquapong]

I’m fine with being patient with Painter. I wouldn’t give him away for nothing, but if we were talking about a controllable young top player like Reynolds and they want Painter as a centerpiece, I’m game. Stott or Abel? I’ll pass.

The Rockies are supposedly hard after Bryant. Why would a player like Bryant go to the Rockies? Plus you’ll be in a division against the Dodgers, Padres, and maybe Giants if they can duplicate their magic from last season.

[zambonir]

In the end they always take the best contract (and also can be convinced that their team wants to win, especially with them on it). But still seems unlikely. And of course you could ask the same question about the Phillies.

Harper seems to be leaving himself out of it, overall. But you've got his buddy, Long's protege, and Dombrowski's former draft pick to choose from.

Bryce Harper: Would be a ‘downer’ if Phillies don’t sign one of three sluggers,...

[andyb]

Why would a player like Bryant go to the Rockies?

To hit lots and lots of HRs? Near his home too assuming he still has family in Vegas.

On Painter I think he is more tradeable than the others in our top 3. Stott is nearly ready and we have both spots in the middle infield coming open by next year. And Abel has a higher ceiling than Painter. If you trade one of the three it would be Painter. Like any HS pitcher you are balancing risk with projection.

Atlanta just traded 3 of their top 5 prospects plus a 4th that would make the Phillies top 10. I just have no interest in loading up a deal with Bohm, Painter, Rojas, and a 4th like Morales for a 2-year rental like Chapman. I'd trade Painter in the right deal. Just not that one.