But what is an âoverpayâ? How do you determine a playerâs value? I would argue that, to most ownership groups, thatâs not based on WAR; thatâs based on the playerâs estimated impact on total revenue - both âdirectâ revenue (ticket sales, concessions, media contracts) and whatever âindirectâ revenue a club can arrange (and, ideally, hide from other clubs and the MLBPA).
For instance, itâs not clear that the Mets (or more accurately, Cohen) is going to lose money on the Scherzer deal. That depends on how much increased revenue the Mets (and associated ventures) can generate because of the Metsâ signing Scherzer (and others - it could be trick to unconfound all this).
We tend to value players on the basis of their impact on team wins. I donât know that most owners look at it that way. If the franchise is an investment, performance on the field only matters to the extent it impacts performance on the balance sheet.
