Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[Philsmania]

But Dombrowski didn't replace Klentak, he replaced MacPhail. And Middleton made the moves that put the Phillies in this position as much as Klentak did. I still agree DD is a big upgrade (especially since MacPhail barely seemed to do anything) and may also have more sway.

I get the sense that Dombrowski is a replacement for both of them. Fuld strikes me as more of a "nuts and bolts" guy rather than a "brains of the operation" guy like Klentak was supposed to be. Plus, with all of his accomplishments, Dombrowski has far more stature than MacPhail whose best days were in Minnesota when George Bush--the first one--was in office.

[fish]

I get the sense that Dombrowski is a replacement for both of them. Fuld strikes me as more of a "nuts and bolts" guy rather than a "brains of the operation" guy like Klentak was supposed to be.

Fuld did an interview with Jim Salisbury on his pod- he made one comment that really jumped out at me. Jim was asking him if the Phillies report in game changes in their pitcher's stuff when it starts to decline (in a not-so-noticeable way) to Girardi- his response was that they don't, but "I think that might be a thing". I don't know why he'd play coy over that, but he has to know that's a thing, right? And why in the world wouldn't they? it doesn't take a supercomputer to recognize when Neris's split is floating trash.

You get the feeling once the Ray's guy get's started they are going to have a lot of moments where there are meetings that someone says "wow, that's a thing?"

[allentown]

It's half what you spend over the cap, plus the 10 draft positions on top pick, plus not getting full comp if a guy you QO signs elsewhere. Losing 10 spots in the first round isn't trivial. I thought you also lost more international money for signing someone else's QO'd player, but haven't found that wording yet.

[andyb]

The international penalty goes to $1 million instead of $500K I believe.

Though to be clear, the draft penalties (10 spots back) don't kick in until a team is more than $40 million over the threshold. That would have been $250 million last year. I can't see any scenario where the Phillies would want that. Most of what we are saying is that there have been chances to go $5 to $10 million over at the deadline and they have declined to do that.

For the future the goal is always to add low cost regulars and integrate them into the lineup. That is why guys like Bohm and Stott are important and probably should not be dealt. Going after a long term player like one of the top SS does not seem to be in the cards either. I think the question for this offseason is whether to invest in that extra $20 million 3-4 year player that might put them over a threshold temporarily and allow time for their prospects to win jobs.

[Austinfan]

Problem is Stott and ??? won't make them competitive.
What they need are Rojas, Garcia, another young OF (Muzzioti, Garcia, etc), Abel, Painter, etc.
In other words, guys with ETA 2-3 years out.

So we're talking two years of excessive spending just to be competitive (85-90 wins at best) and THEN we'll finally have the young horses just as Nola leaves and Wheeler and JT near the end of their contracts.

[andyb]

Problem is Stott and ??? won't make them competitive

It can if he fills a position for low cost and that frees the money we pay Didi and/or Segura to get a top shelf free agent.

Why are you so resistant to going $10-$20 million over a luxury tax threshold to win 85-90 games for a couple of years so we don't have to deal top prospects?

None of this works if all our prospects are terrible, but spending money can make up for some shortfalls. You just seem to oppose this straw man of trying to compete with only money and free agents. Nobody is trying to do that. The equation is more spending a bit more money to buy time for prospects. And not trade 4 WAR potential players like JP Crawford.

[schillingfan]

I don’t follow other teams enough, to comment on your trade, but right now we have the MVP, the best catcher and top five pitcher in the NL. That’s why I have a hard time stomaching Austinfan’s take it slowly philosophy. We have to strike now while we have some of the top talent. These players are approaching or at 30 and will probably go downhill from here. Wee can’t afford to wait.

[andyb]

I guess the larger question is that this team has said they intend to keep competing. That means building a team around Harper, Realmuto, Wheeler, and Nola (though trading Nola should probably be on the table).

So it is pointless to contemplate rebuild scenarios. And I think most here do not want to decimate the future (i.e. trade our best prospects) to bolster a team that needs lots of things to go right to win the division.

Hence the alternative of spending money and going over the threshold a bit (not knowing the specific rules) and holding onto most of our prospects is the most realistic path. Try to win 85-90 the next 2 years with free agents making the difference and hope our prospects are playing big roles in 3 years.

[EDmuch]

Exactly !!!!

[BaseballCat]

While I would hate to lose prospects, we seem to be trying the same philosophy the past few years and just tread at 0.500. I would like to get some gold glove defenders with pop and a few years left before free agency to just hoping things gel. At the same time rebuild the philosophy in the minors. The proposed move is a push, but not a trade everything strategy. In two years they should still have value if we need to unload. Anyway just my five cents - inflation...

[Austinfan]

How is Stott going to free Didi's money this year?
And Didi can't replace Segura at 2B.
So now you're talking 2023.

And that's your problem, they're in this bad holding pattern, and spending your way out of it boxes you into a corner in three years when hopefully real talent will start arriving. I have no problem spending money at the right time, they probably should have been spending around 2006 or so for 1 or 2 pitchers who could have put them over the top.

But busting the cap to get to 86 wins seems a fool's errand. No problem spending money on short-term patches but still stay under the Cap, which I think is Dombrowski's plan - try to contend without mortgaging the future, whether trading prospects or future flexibility to spend in excess of the Cap.

I would definitely trade Nola, I have more confidence in Suarez as #2, and Nola still has value with two reasonably priced years left on his deal, and he scares me when it comes to an extension. Get a young SP, a promising position player in AAA and a top prospect who's further away. Then you can trade some second tier guys you don't think are in your future plans for patches, filling ML holes while maintaining prospect depth.

[andyb]

Stott can play 2B. A free agent can play SS. Segura can be traded. Then in 2023 you are not paying either Didi or Segura.

Take the blinders off a bit. There are moves that they could do within a $200 to $220 million payroll that can improve this team. The team has said they want to compete next year. Comments should really be directed at a strategy to do so.

[andyb]

I would definitely trade Nola, I have more confidence in Suarez as #2,

I'd trade Suarez in a heartbeat if he actually had the value you imply. I'd say the odds of Suarez having a higher ERA than Nola next year are probably about 75%.

[Taudawg]

Dave Dombrowski quotes post season press conference -
"We'll Be Aggressive"
"We'll pursue every avenue that we possibly can -- free agency, trades, any way you can do those things."
"I don't know why we can't try to compete for a championship next year with those pieces. We have to make good moves and wise decisions. I'm not saying we're going to, but our goal is to try to win. We're going to try to win a championship next year, try to win our division, and we'll see what happens."

Suggesting the Phillies take a step back (for two future steps forward) is fine, if that's what you believe they should do. However, they are not going to do that. They are going to go for it.

[Austinfan]

At no time did he suggest he's going to bust the Cap.

"We have to make good moves and wise decisions. I'm not saying we're going to, but our goal is to try to win."

Sounds like a guy prepared to trade second tier prospects and go bargain hunting.
He's pretty much hinted before he wasn't going big game hunting.

[Taudawg]

At no time did he suggest he's going to bust the Cap.

Only time will tell. I heard no indication they wouldn't go into the tax. If they don't, they don't. He said they will try to win a championship in 2022. I don't know how he plans to construct the team (bargain or big game hunting), but it won't be through giving up on 2022 with an eye on 2023 or 2024.

[zambonir]

So it is pointless to contemplate rebuild scenarios. And I think most here do not want to decimate the future (i.e. trade our best prospects) to bolster a team that needs lots of things to go right to win the division.

Hence the alternative of spending money and going over the threshold a bit (not knowing the specific rules) and holding onto most of our prospects is the most realistic path. Try to win 85-90 the next 2 years with free agents making the difference and hope our prospects are playing big roles in 3 years.

I just don't see any downside to busting the cap. Not excessively/repeatedly, but like Andy says, it beats trading prospects.

Or, alternately, trade the prospects. Decimate the future! We've got these star players right now. I'd rather have a playoff team for the next two years and a bad team in 2025 then have another two years of mediocrity, and, quite possibly, still have a bad team in 2025. The idea that we're just gonna see Abel, Painter, Stott, Rojas, Garcia and O'Hoppe all playing on some NL East title-winners is still a longshot. It is the fencesitting that remains an issue. Literally, one step forward, one step back, instead of either a full rebuild (obviously no longer a consideration) or fully going for it.

[schillingfan]

To steal a quote I have the “fierce urgency of now.” We’ve wasted a few years of Harper already.

[andyb]

I could really see a Segura for Kimbrel trade the more I think about it. The salaries line up. While Segura is more valuable as an everyday player, it is the type of deal where Dombrowski would also get a prospect back like he did with Crouse. If Stott is ready to play they should really think about something like that. People saying the White Sox would consider Didi are just dreaming. Didi has no trade value now. Segura does, but plays a position where we have some depth, especially if we can use the money saved on a shortstop.

[zambonir]

Well, I just don't know if the Sox take that deal as you imagine it (actually including a prospect, with Crouse the Rangers were actually getting Howard, not an expensive ageing free agent-to-be). But I would be willing to live with Didi and/or a Galvis type at 2B for a few months if trading Segura gets you both a player and money to spend on other things (i mean, half of it would be the difference between Kimbrel and a cheaper reliever and half of it could be Hector, or a better outfielder or 6th starter).

It shouldn't be boring. I wonder if we'll really see him do something in these next two weeks. Obviously activity is picking up.