Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[andyb]

Well it is 3 out of 7 for 90 or less. Close enough for the major point that it is still worth trying if you can get your team near 90 wins, especially in a year where there is not a runaway leader at the trade deadline.

In general the Phillies have decided it is not worth competing for teams 3 years in a row when we could have added players largely for cash and third tier prospects. When people set it up as a straw man argument that the Phillies would have had to trade a big part of the future to have competed in the last few years they are largely wrong. I was more angry about not competing in 2020 when things were wide open, but it is still disappointing to see other organizations try harder.

[bigegypt0417]

Well it is 3 out of 7 for 90 or less. Close enough for the major point that it is still worth trying if you can get your team near 90 wins, especially in a year where there is not a runaway leader at the trade deadline.

And i removed the COVID year from the equation...if you remove a 60 game season, it's 3 out of 6 and if you include it, it's 4 out of 7.

[zambonir]

Well, you said "less than 90 wins" not "90 or less." So that was what Fish said was incorrect, and why I assumed you meant other divisions.

Braves won the COVID year with the equivalent of 94+ wins, FWIW.

I can't say I recall being that angry or frustrated the Phillies didn't go bigger in 2020. It was a weird year and the bullpen troubles took up a lot of bandwidth. Both this year and last year injuries also really hit them harder post-deadline, and maybe they should have been more prepared for that in both cases. 2020 team neeeded another SP and an extra bat once Arrieta, Hoskins and JT got dinged and surely they would have at least tried harder to complete the Tyler Anderson deal had they know Eflin was done.

[andyb]

In 2020 they probably figured there was no way they were not in with the current team - and that the extra round of playoffs would make the results so random it was probably not worth going all in on.

2021 the reasoning was the team was good but not great, so no reason to go all in. Of course the Phillies were equating trading prospects with just spending money there. They could have improved more by just spending money.

[zambonir]

Plus the president and GM was barely in charge of the team in 2020. But even then they gave up a prospect to save $ on the Red Sox trade.

[allentown]

True. Klentak always seemed to care more about saving the owners' money than Middleton did.

[Austinfan]

The problem last year, and the Made trade illustrates it, was they probably didn't know what they had in the organization - and one of the tasks of the new people this spring into the summer is going to be prospect evaluation - who has a real future, who should be put in the sell bin, who should be discarded to make room for prospects with more upside.

I suspect Dombrowski may not have trusted the evaluations he was given for many prospects. He mentioned learning which scouts are overly optimistic (one wonders if such evaluations led to complacency?).

Has he cleaned out the scouting ranks yet? Because that group also needs some new blood, at both the pro and amateur levels - how many hidden gems have we unearthed or obtained in trades the last few years? How about our less than stellar drafting?

[andyb]

Do you mean Mead? Not Made who is a different player never traded.

I don't think much happened because Dombrowski was not familiar with the players. He is a smart guy and they knew about Mead. I knew about Mead because he really played better at GCL than someone like Wingrove and was both younger and played a more important defensive position.

The Phillies knew that. They just made a dumb trade. And that was Klentak's trade in 2019, not Dombrowski.

What the Phillies are doing is nothing special. When you fail you bring in new guys. Who knows whether this will work, but trying to portray this as some sort of Dombrowski insight is off course. It is standard organizational turnover when there are mediocre results.

[zambonir]

Has he cleaned out the scouting ranks yet? Because that group also needs some new blood, at both the pro and amateur levels - how many hidden gems have we unearthed or obtained in trades the last few years? How about our less than stellar drafting?

Of course the problem with this statement is that they just did this. Klentak and MacPhail were only in charge from 2016 to 2020. Scouting overhaul and big development changes weren't made until the second or third year (Bonifay was hired prior to the 2019 season). Almaraz didn't step down until after the fourth year.

So now they are starting over again. I would speculate that Klentak's changes weren't as big as we might think (and obviously the int'l and pro scouting departments have the same heads as ever) because the old guard (MacPhail, Gillick, Charlie) still held sway but that is certainly not the story they whispered when Klentak got the boot.

[Austinfan]

The difference is decisiveness, Dombrowski spent a year assessing the organization, then made wholesale changes at every level, instead of piecemeal changes.

[EDmuch]

Much to my surprise, I find myself in agreement with AF on this one. I do think the actions now being taken by DD are more comprehensive in nature based upon two things: DD’s own extensive understanding of how the structure of a winning franchise should be assembled; and the year he spent personally evaluating how the structure of this franchise has been working in the past.

Where I depart from AF is that I feel & hope that DD’s comprehensive approach is giving Middleton enough faith in DD’s long term direction that Middleton will give DD the authority to exceed the Cap for short term success while the longer term plan is in motion. I see no chance for this team as it is currently built, to catch the Braves without exceeding the Cap for a couple of years.

[Austinfan]

Question is do you want to exceed the cap for a couple years while the organization is rebuilt, then when you have young talent arriving, you have to stay under the cap b/c penalties accelerate if you go over for too many years.

One step back trades aren't for A ball prospects, but AA/AAA prospects who are no more than a year away, filling the donut in the organization, and providing some young players that allow you to sign a major FA in a year or two b/c you have cheap young talent.

Right now, the Phillies have to exceed the cap to make major signings, because they need so many patches.

[EDmuch]

That is correct. So why do you so relentlessly continue to argue against recognition of reality?

[bigegypt0417]

Question is do you want to exceed the cap for a couple years while the organization is rebuilt, then when you have young talent arriving, you have to stay under the cap b/c penalties accelerate if you go over for too many years.

Again...you can do both things and not go over the cap over several years.

What is all this young talent you believe will all be arriving that I want to watch a sub 500 team while i wait for it?

[allentown]

Question is do you want to exceed the cap for a couple years while the organization is rebuilt, then when you have young talent arriving, you have to stay under the cap b/c penalties accelerate if you go over for too many years.

Under the current rules, no, you most definitely do not. You can exceed for a single year if your budget projections and future lux tax limit say you can go back under cap the following year, but to go over cap in consecutive years starts you into big trouble. May be more or less of a problem under whatever new rules come out as a result of negotiation with the players.

[bigegypt0417]

What exactly is the big trouble?

At 3 years the penalty is what? Money you have plenty of and your draft pick moves back 10 spots?

Sorry...that doesn't really scare me much.

[zambonir]

It shouldn't scare anybody. But Middleton isn't afraid of spending money. He's just not willing to buck the system, and it has always been thus. Only eight teams have ever exceeded the tax, and only 3 or 4 consistently/in recent years. Not The Phillies Way (but neither is development or winning).

[EDmuch]

But I think this year DD will convince Middleton to go over the Cap. DD will show that the need for a power hitter, lead off man and a reliable closer cannot be accomplished with out exceeding the Cap. I think there is big difference when an established base ball man like DD talks to Middleton as compared to when Little Skippy Klentak was talking to Middleton. There was good reason for Middleton to give little credence to whatever Skippy recommended.

[zambonir]

But Dombrowski didn't replace Klentak, he replaced MacPhail. And Middleton made the moves that put the Phillies in this position as much as Klentak did. I still agree DD is a big upgrade (especially since MacPhail barely seemed to do anything) and may also have more sway. But he's also already publicly stated that he's seen his budget and is happy with it, has said he's currently more focused on trades than free agents, and is maybe not in the SS market. None of that adds up to exceeding the CBT to me. Plus you don't even want to do that in the off-season anyway - leave yourself the option at the deadline at least. For now I'll settle for the team being good enough in July that they have to consider it.

[BaseballCat]

Just posting this to generate some discussion and I have some down time as I just gave my last final. IF we want to make a push while Harper and Wheeler (Nola and JT) are in their prime, I would suggest trading for Olsen and Chapman from Oakland. They are good offense and defense and I believe are controllable for the next two years. What would it take to get them?
I like what I am going to suggest, but also don't like it as I want to keep prospects - however this is a push for now. How would you tweak the following to be acceptable - I would include Hoskins, Bohm and one of Abel, Painter or Stott. Would that be enough or do we need to include a lower prospect? I want to keep everyone I mentioned, BUT I am willing to shake things up to get some offense and defense. Oakland saves some money and gets two good prospects - we might be able to send some money as well. I am not willing to give up 2 of Abel, Painter and Stott.
I usually don't jump in on these discussions, but my mind wanted to go elsewhere for the time being and I have been thinking about it since it became known that Oakland might be looking to dump salary. Horrible, wonderful or something we can tweak?