Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

andyb 2021-10-19 21:13:55 UTC #361

I am curious about the market on Taylor. He is athletic enough that he should age fairly well even if his time is limited in CF and at SS. Zobrist got 4/56 in a market that was a bit better than today's market. That started in his age 35 season so he was a more extreme example but the contract was actually reasonably fair (7 WAR over 4 years - 2 good, 2 bad).

Is Chris Taylor a decent risk to produce on a 4/60 contract? I would say yes. But the contract might be more like 5/100. He is certainly a good fit (can play CF and SS, athletic, Slipped a bit this year to 2.7 WAR but has played at a 4 WAR rate for 5 years. Could be worth 10 WAR over a 5 year deal playing 75% of the time.

andyb 2021-10-19 21:16:42 UTC #362

Sounds like you are putting together a .500 team, not a winning one. There is nothing wrong with that combination of players and in total it would only cost $15-$20 million for all 4. And you might get 2-4 WAR out of all of them combined. It just is not that good unless it is paired with bigger ticket moves like Correa and a closer.

EDmuch 2021-10-19 21:18:37 UTC #363

Well that outfield could allow for the signing of Correa. How does that look with Correa factored in?

EDmuch 2021-10-19 21:19:52 UTC #364

And it would leave enough money to do sign a credible closer line Iglesias.

EDmuch 2021-10-19 21:31:07 UTC #365

Let’s say you sign those four for your outfield plus Harper. Then add Correa. Your bench then becomes Vierling, Pillar, Torreyes, Gigorious and a back up catcher. I think that is a solid competitive lineup that, depending on Nola and Eflin that an go toe to toe with the Braves.0

andyb 2021-10-19 21:33:04 UTC #366

That would make sense if paired with Correa. We have like $50 million to spend on new players. Maybe $60 million. If you spent $30 plus on one you would need to save elsewhere (and a closer should cost at least $10-$12 million).

I just think I agree with Zambonir that the Phillies seem done with Herrera even if a new contract was a bargain. Just too much off field drama and the upside is probably not that great. That does not mean that plugging the CF hole with an inexpensive player is the wrong call. We can't count on it, but we still have internal options in Moniak and Haseley and Kingery and Muzziotti to draw from. Someone has to be better next year even if we don't know exactly which someone that will be.

Sabin 2021-10-19 21:33:15 UTC #367

zambonir:

Sabin:

I don't think Cutch has anything to do with the discussion of next year's CF. Your proposal of Buxton's number of games played is purely hypothetical; how can anyone be sure he's going to play 100+ games at this point?
In this comparison Marte, or some other 32-33 year-old FA, is Cutch. I'm just not sure the opportunity cost is worse on Buxton given his age and talent than it would be a on an older player. We picked Cutch for three years over the more injury-prone Michael Brantley on a two-year deal and Brantley wound up being better and healthier (and remained so this season).

I think you just never know, even with a history like Buxton's. But as the middle ground between Odubel Herrera and Marte, with the highest ceiling of either, hard not to be intrigued.

I would rather go all-in on Correa than trade for Buxton certainly. The biggest contract of the year probably, but if you fill that hole (both SS and in the batting order) you don't have to spend as much on CF or LF. Heck,

I get your reasoning if comparing Buxton to a Marte - and, yes, Brantley did end up more productive than McCutcheon - but in a sense these examples lend to my point: if Middleton were to green-light exceeding the lux cap, I have trouble seeing it be for a 'you never know'-type proposition, more so than someone like, to use your example, a Carlos Correa.

(Though a decision involving Correa in this instance would leverage the cost of prospects + less $ over the cap against retaining said prospects + extending well into the luxury tax zone... which, given the historical reluctance ownership has shown to exceeding it, may gain points back to the idea trading for, and extending, Buxton. In their minds, at least.)

allentown 2021-10-19 23:13:56 UTC #368

Correa is the sort of star player the Phillies tend to do well signing as a FA. He is a very worthy off-season target, a guy who can really move the needle, a guy who's young enough and good enough to confidently sign for 5 or 6 seasons. We do better with the stars than with 2 or 3 mid-level FAs. His D can really help the pitching and he can make the rest of the lineup more productive. He's also a big enough splash that DD may be able to convince ownership to pony up the $$$. He will make Bohm look better at 3B.

bkox 2021-10-19 23:17:55 UTC #369

Is Correa going to be happy for 5-6? Or will he want 10? Does he want to test FA again at age 32-33? Or want to try for the security through age 36 season

allentown 2021-10-19 23:52:31 UTC #370

We'll find out. I guess it depends on $/year. Ten years is a lot. 8 might be a reasonable compromise. It's in part how he values himself and his future abilities/rate of future baseball salary inflation.

EDmuch 2021-10-20 00:28:53 UTC #371

I suspect the Phil’s have done the same sort of analysis that we have: Correa is the target and we adjust in the OF as needed to fit Correa into the salary structure.

zambonir 2021-10-20 04:41:09 UTC #372

It certainly seems to be both the Phillies and Dombrowski's style. Might be competing with the Mets and Yankees too. (Mets pretty crowded there.)

Wouldn't be the end of the world if we sign a really good OF and one of the other SS too. But some of those guys are older.

Philsmania 2021-10-20 13:56:36 UTC #373

Mets got Lindor last year and signed him for ten. And, they may now have buyer's remorse after his disappointing and tumultuous first yest in Queens. Not sure how Correa fits for them unless its for second base.

allentown 2021-10-20 14:21:30 UTC #374

He's not worth nearly as much at 2B.

bkox 2021-10-20 14:25:43 UTC #375

MLBTR has an article this morning that the Mets are considering trying to keep Baez

fish 2021-10-20 14:36:48 UTC #376

Harper's contract was a unicorn. Any star that comes here is going to make sure they get long term security while also giving themselves opt-outs so they aren't trapped here with us.

zambonir 2021-10-20 15:08:59 UTC #377

Yeah if they keep Baez it makes even less sense. And I'm sure Lindor will be fine for them. Chatter is probably more that the NY teams always get mentioned, and it's good for player to have that in the rumor mill too.

One of the reasons Harper's contract was a unicorn is there weren't that many teams seriously pursuing him or Machado. That may not be the case this off-season but it's also the reason SS is probably the first move, just because there's a surplus.

andyb 2021-10-20 15:09:25 UTC #378

Correa does grade out as a better defensive SS than Lindor. Not that Lindor is bad, but that might be a factor limiting the Mets interest if the defensive value of signing Correa is more limited because one of them would play 2B. They may not care with Cohen's $$ of course. Like the Yankees did not care with Jeter and ARod.

allentown 2021-10-20 16:40:31 UTC #379

That's fine. Opt-outs are actually a way of likely signing him for a shorter term, as you can structure the deal to encourage him to leave after we get his prime years (well, many of them, it doesn't work if we try to get them all). He wants a certain value, including what he can get on an opt-out. He's wealthy and will earn a ton of money, so he certainly will have a financial advisor who understands net present value. Front-load the contract somewhat. This offers him more money in pocket today, equal NPV, and a bit of a push to exercise the opt-out after the front-loading ends. Lux tax figured on AAV, so the back years, which the player can void, helps there. Of course, the contract after the front-load gives injury protection to Correa. He gets his $ no matter what. This works better if the Phillies can get insurance to cover injury in those later years and only be on the hook for part of that.

andyb 2021-10-20 18:04:31 UTC #380

ESPN on the top shortstops. Phillies not listed as a favorite for any of the top 5 but the article thinks they are a wild card though it really only talks about the Boras connection (Harper, the new hitting coach Long, and then Seager).

My worry about Seager is that I think he is at the point where he should move off of SS because he is below average there. Now his offense plays anywhere, but Correa is a better shortstop now and they are both big guys. I figure Correa might have another good 3 years at SS before one should contemplate moving him.