Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[zambonir]

I think AF's specific logic may be flawed, but the fact that the story of this team for three straight seasons is that they could have won 85 or 87 or 89 games if not for injuries also says they aren't doing something right. And that something, as we all know, is being to reliant on older and more expensive players, and that is also going to include most of the few homegrown players we have for the next two years (Hoskins and Eflin aren't expensive, but they are no longer cheap; they aren't old, but they're probably not on the upside of their careers either).

It's not a binary though (and never is when AF talks about it). You can have FAs, mid-priced guys, dumpster dives and cheap bench guys. Heck, last year they didn't sign a single big FA if you don't count returning players, and if Didi hadn't stunk they probably make the playoffs just as surely as if Hoskins and Eflin had been healthy down the stretch. The front office was also barely on the job. This off-season won't be boring, and we'll get a better sense of what the next 2-3 years might be like.

[bigegypt0417]

Well, look at what Atlanta lost!@

What did they lose? They lose Acuna and?

Again...it's your logic...so when you argue...it's really against your own viewpoint.

If you are going to use injuries then you need to account for it in every case. The phillies lost significant players down the stretch which impacted their ability to win.

Correct?

simply put...even it those injuries cost them 5 wins, they are at 87 wins and a few upgrades would get them to 90+

I know you actually injoy rebuilds but at this point, it's a flawed strategy.

[Philsmania]

Well, look at what Atlanta lost!@

What did they lose? They lose Acuna and?

Marcell Ozuna, though through 48 games--when he got suspended--his production had not yet stepped up.

[bkox]

They lost d'Arnaud for 3 months. Ynoa for 2 months, Pache was their opening day CF.. he was dismal and was sent to the minors

[Philsmania]

It raised a lot of eyebrows when Anthopoulos loaded up on outfielders at the trade deadline but doing that completely changed the trajectory of Braves' season. Rosario, Soler and Duval were all very productive for them. At the deadline, the Braves were 52-54 and 5 games out of first place. After the deadline, they went 36-19 and finished in first by 6.5 games.

[bigegypt0417]

So they had some injuries as well...I'm just asking that when he uses that as a reason to dismiss a point, he then uses it equally.

So the phillies would have been in contention for at least the wild card.

[zambonir]

Yeah the Braves are the perfect argument for having a cheaper payroll, homegrown talent and a deeper system, because when things go bad you have both the money and the trade capital to pounce. But nobody is arguing the Phillies shouldn't be that way too. They just aren't. It's entirely possible they weren't more aggressive at the deadline because nobody wanted what the Phillies could offer (literally true in that they couldn't re-work the Tyler Anderson deal), even more so than $ issues (several of the biggest guys traded had their salaries covered).

I don't want them to be stupid and I also don't want them to make mistakes (though everybody does) but the middle ground approach keeps failing. They lose enough payroll over the next two years that they might not have to exceed the CBT but not doing so the past two years (well, one of them, wouldn't want to do two years in a row) was a failing.

[bkox]

Yeah those OF additions were pretty amazing. Pederson, Soler, Rosario and Duvall combined for 44 homers and 116 Rbis over the final 60 games or so. I think that about the same amount of HRs than our entire OF (minus Harper) produced over a full season. (Cutch 27, Herrera 13, Moniak 1 Jankowski 1, Vierling 2)

[Philsmania]

Yeah those OF additions were pretty amazing. Pederson, Soler, Rosario and Duvall combined for 44 homers and 116 Rbis over the final 60 games or so. I think that about the same amount of HRs than our entire OF (minus Harper) produced over a full season. (Cutch 27, Herrera 13, Moniak 1 Jankowski 1, Vierling 2)

I forgot about Pederson whom they traded for a couple of weeks earlier.

And, Rosario was acquired from Clevelend for just Pablo Sandoval whom the Indians cut upon acquiring so the Braves basically got him for nothing.

[andyb]

Our choices are limited simply because we have not produced much homegrown talent. Bohm should be our Austin Riley or at least 90% of that. I'd love to plug a Moniak/Vierling platoon in the outfield and get 800 OPS, but I am not expecting that based on what we have seen. Haseley and Kingery were major failures for us and we traded the one young everyday player that did make it (Crawford).

We have done a little better on the pitching side producing Nola and Suarez and a couple of other relievers while trading for Eflin. It is still about average compared to other teams though and below what the Braves homegrown contributions have been.

There are choices to make here. One is whether to keep contending and I think that choice has already been made. The next choice is how to contend of course and it seems our best option is to use money to some degree to plug holes. This could be free agents (most likely second tier) or trades for expensive arbitration eligible players like Buxton. The trick will be doing those trades without using our few top prospects.

However one parses it, the choice to contend by itself dictates that we spend some money. We probably will get close to whatever luxury tax threshold exists next year. If I had to guess we leave ourselves about $10 million of room for the trade deadline but that is it. The argument to go over probably only happens if we feel someone like Correa is the missing piece and I doubt that is going to happen.

This is the strategy ownership has dictated. Spend $200-$210 million. Try to save your prospects. But also try to compete within that budget.

[zambonir]

Another thing that would really change the outlook for 2022-2023 - this guy.

How do you explain Aaron Nola’s down season? Bad luck, for starters.

I'm equally intrigued by this note:

Among 22 pitchers who worked enough innings to qualify for the National League ERA title, Nola ranked 20th with a 4.63 mark.

So there are not even, on average, two pitchers per team who can qualify for the NL ERA title. The qualification (162 IPs) is clearly flawed at this point, as even a lot of good pitchers don't reach that. But how many teams even have a #4 starter that pitches 150 innings. Eflin, our #3, would have hit that if healthy.

[EDmuch]

What I think all of this shows, is that it continues to be folly to play the "middle game" where you have a small group of high quality, high priced players and you try to fill around them with dreck. It does not work. So we should either spend more money to add higher quality players for a few years, or tear it down and, trade off the quality players and rebuild. The one thing to hope for this year is that DD has had an entire year to evaluate what we have and evaluate how to make it better if possible. It seem by specifying the need for another big bat behind Harper, an effective lead off hitter, and a closer DD is going to approach Middleton and tell him he has to be ready to spend a significant amount of additional money. A Power bat, lead off hitter and effective closer are not things you usually find in the garbage bins of the league. I hope that DD can convince Middleton that it is kind of time to poop or get off the pot.

[zambonir]

It wasn't really the dreck that hurt them - had Didi performed at the level of his contract and Bohm at the level relative to expectations, they would have gotten by with what they had in CF (even if a lot of guys had to flop to get to where they did) and LF (which is where the leadoff hitter should have come from but Herrera didn't hit enough and Cutch was basically a platoon #6 hitter). And as Cutch, Didi and various relievers have already shown us, you can spend for on-paper quality and still not get what you were expecting.

They have money to spend, and yes, with three positions (SS, LF, CF) to fill and that expressed need for a power bat and a lead-off hitter, they can't do it on the cheap, at least not for 2 of the 3 spots. I just don't know that they'll go big $ for a closer or a starting pitcher. And if they do exceed the CBT it's unlikely to be in the off-season.

[EDmuch]

Seems to me a Carlos Correa who could both improve the infield defense and also bat 4th behind Harper might be what DD would recommend as the biggest expenditure.

[EDmuch]

Maybe a Mark Canha who can bat lead off and play all 3 OF positions as the second UFA.

[allentown]

they would have gotten by with what they had in CF (even if a lot of guys had to flop to get to where they did)

This. Once they got over their aversion to playing Herrera, he gave them +1.8bWAR in about 80% of a season. Since that was coming back after a quite long absence from baseball, and since 2022 is just his age 30 season, he should be just fine as our starting CF. Would that all of our position players gave us 2 WAR. Don't rush to fix what ain't broke (although do really push for the ADD meds), You are correct, Didi and Bohm were the big problems this year, followed by Kingery. Nola would be better with a decent SS.

It's possible Didi recovers some of his offensive performance. I doubt he will be an adequate defensive SS.

[EDmuch]

Ok, what about keeping Herrera (his salary demand would have to be pretty low ) and then hedging that bet by signing a Kevin Pillar who is good with a glove, is a decent but not great hitter who can also serve as a credible pinch hitter?

[andyb]

Pillar is probably below average these days in CF. He is a little more of a sure thing than going with a Vierling as the backup. Just not sure he is better.

I am leaning more towards getting a bigger bat in LF and cobbling together a platoon in CF. Muzziotti could be in play in the second half of the season also if we want a defense-first bat out there.

[zambonir]

I've been wrong before, but I just think the Phillies can't wait until the day Herrera isn't in their uniform. And he was still just a 95 OPS+ offensive player - the surprise was he played decent defense. It's only because of that that he was better then the guy who seemed on his way out in 2018 (after that insane hot start. Streaky as always I guess).

Obviously they are not going to pick up his option; on a depressed open market further depressed by other teams not wanting to deal with a new round of questions about him, maybe he returns.

Correa is the most expensive piece out there probably, but for sure, also the best fit. Bryant and Taylor are interesting pieces, but much riskier/older.

[EDmuch]

How about an outfield of Brad Miller, Vierling, Herrera and Pillar in various combinations in LF and C?