Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[andyb]

hey don't have the money to chase a top hitter.

Don't they?

MLB Philadelphia 21

Looks like they are about $68 million under last season's luxury tax limit. Arbitration might take up about $20 million (Hoskins, Eflin, Alvarado, Dominguez, Haseley might be all they offer it to and note the last 2 will be tiny $1-$2 million rewards). Then there is the likelihood that the threshold increases somewhat as its slow rise was a major point of contention.

The question of whether they can afford a big hitter is easily answered and that is yes. The question of whether it is wise to go after a Correa or a Castellanos is completely different.

[Austinfan]

If all they needed was one player, yes.

But Dombro made it clear he's signed enough big money stars, he needs to make sure he has plus players at every starting position and more pitching depth. A real closer will cost $10+M, a 2nd tier SS $10+M, and so on. They need another SP (Eflin's knee, Nola's decline, Gibson's age). And so on.

And I think they don't want to sign anyone past their prime, been there, done that.

[andyb]

The point is they CAN afford one even without exceeding the threshold. There are also ways to do some of the things you suggest through trades that do not cost as much money as the free agents would.

But the fact is, that if they really want to compete without giving up their best prospects like Stott and Rojas and Abel in trades, then they are going to have to spend money. That might offend some sensibilities, but it also is a sound strategy for a big market team like the Phillies.

Take a step back and one realizes that one of the few things the Phillies have done well in recent years is to sign expensive free agents. Harper, Wheeler, and Realmuto are the core of this team and on deals that are fair in the current market if not a bit underpriced (all but Realmuto).

[mdougherty12]

Crouse, Medina will be starters in Lehigh.

I believe Medina is out of options, so he'll have to pass through waivers to get to AAA next spring.

[julio]

Crouse, Medina will be starters in Lehigh.

I believe Medina is out of options, so he'll have to pass through waivers to get to AAA next spring.

Yep, Medina is out of options...and he won't clear outright waivers, IMHO. Which suggests, if the Phils don't see a clear role for him on the active roster next April, that he would be a prime candidate for inclusion in a trade package.

[andyb]

Probably time to prepare him for a bullpen role this offseason and let him try to win a job in Spring Training. Unfortunately Medina never panned out as a prospect. He could not hold mid-90s velocity as he matured even as his offspeed pitches developed some.

I actually think there would be a 50-50 shot he could clear waivers at the end of Spring Training when most teams have a pretty full roster. Remember that waiver claim would be after he was not good enough to make the Phillies' opening day roster in 2022. That 13th or 14th spot on the Phillies staff is a relatively low bar to clear if recent history is a guide (Kintzler, etc).

[Austinfan]

Well, Medina might have a shot as a 6th starter, innings eater long relief guy, his stuff doesn't play up out of the pen, but he could start innings and go multiple innings. That'll be determined in ST. Same holds for Falter, who is similar in that regard.

[EDmuch]

The guy who may be of interest to DD is Trevor Story. He would provide excellent defense at SS and be the right handed power hitter who could slot in behind Harper. He is 28 so still within the age to sign him as a UFA. Money could come from Didi going to bench or be traded or cut and then not picking up Segura's option for 2023. Move Stott to second base. Additional monetary savings could come from signing Brad Miller, rather than Cutch to a one or two year deal to play LF. In two years he could be replaced by Ortiz. With a 2022 lineup of Segura, Hoskins, Harper, Story, Miller, Realmuto, Bohm we could add a defense first center fielder batting eighth and still have a strong lineup. So after 2022, Story's salary would come from the savings on letting Didi and Segura walk. It could still leave room for Stott, Ortiz and Rojas to move up to MLB in 2023 and beyond.

[bkox]

The guy who may be of interest to DD is Trevor Story.

Career slash line away from Coors.

.248/.310/.442/.752

This past season was worse. .203/.292/.426/.717

[EDmuch]

Good point.

[Patchmk88]

I was wondering that. Glad you posted it. Arenado had a good year this year but it was nothing like his Colorado years (sans last year’s shortened season) - at least offensively.

[bkox]

Yup Arenado's OPS this year was just 2 points different than his career OPS outside of Coors

[Austinfan]

Beat me to it, he'll get grossly overpaid by some team dumb enough to ignore his splits. Pass.

[LoneStarPhan]

There will be some free agents who don't draw big offers but mighty just provide value on a one year deal. Should be interesting. I am looking forward to this off season.

[fish]

What do you think Kyle Seager gets in his next contact? Im guessing he probably gets 2 years and I don’t t want to get stuck with another Didi- but one year at 12 million and stash him down in the lineup at 6/7 seems like a relatively cheap upgrade.

[andyb]

Not sure we should invest in 3B. Remember that is a backup position for Didi if Bohm does not have a great year. I just think we have bigger problems to address and maybe a year down the road we are even looking at Stott there, especially if we address shortstop with someone on a multi-year deal.

What the Phillies do with Bohm and whether they pencil him in at a position is one of the most interesting questions of the offseason. Counting on him would be rolling the dice, but would it in the long run be a worse gamble compared to committing $10-$15 million to someone to cover the position (and thereby wasting a potential plus Bohm contribution and taking the money from elsewhere).

[EDmuch]

There are four or five FA's who play SS so it seems more likely we could find a worthwhile FA at SS than 3b.

[Austinfan]

I think Garcia will be the SS in 2-3 years, he should start in Jersey Shore and finish next season in Reading.
In 391 AB between Clearwater and JS, 61 BB, 13 HR.
He's really improved his plate discipline and has developed some pop, but his calling card will be his defense.

Phillies desperately need a plus fielding SS and CF to cover for 3B and LF. These are spots where players have positive value if they're defensive assets if they can merely put up a .700 OPS.

So I'd be looking for a RH stopgap to push/platoon with Didi with more range.

[EDmuch]

So Stott moves to 2b.?

[Austinfan]

Or 3B. Torres is another guy to watch at JS, along with Rojas. Finished really strong, $665K bonus, another skinny LA IF who has filled out, started slow but finished strong. Doesn't have the arm for the left side of the IF. Rojas could be that CF they need.

Clearwater should also have a loaded squad to start next season, though I don't think any are premier prospects right now, except Yhoswar Garcia.

Phillies need a couple of these kids to pull an "Altuve," get red hot and jump a couple levels next year - because Reading is a total black hole right now. Plus, it's about time the Phillies actually find a LA player who's a plus starter.

Short-term, their best bet is to patch for a year or two, and hope they can turn around a couple of the AAA kids, it would be a huge upgrade if you could get Moniak, Haseley, Randolph, to at least be a solid LF/CF LH platoon. Then you can pick up a RH OF for a one year deal and maybe a plus defender in CF. If Maton/Williams can be decent off the bench, you only have to keep one of Galvis/Torreyes. Marchan and O'Hoppe might be a year away, so upgrade Knapp and in 2023 let one of these two backup JT and limit his workload.

What I don't want to see is a big contract to a 30+ hitter coming off a career season. That's asking to get burned.