Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[zambonir]

If Eflin can really get that I'd consider picking up his mutual option, more money but less risk over one year. Would he take it?

[andyb]

If he were a reliever I think Eflin would be in that $6-$10 million group. No idea if there are red flags in his physical about trying to start again. 3/36 is not outlandish if a team thinks he can start.

[Austinfan]

I have trouble seeing Eflin getting more than 1 year deals, that knee seems to be a chronic condition.
And it's hard to imagine anyone taking a risk on him as a starter other than a 'show me' deal.

[andyb]

He'll get something like that 3 year deal if he wants it. Guessing teams see him as a $15+ million a year value as a starter and are willing to take the lower salary guarantee to get him at a potential bargain.

Larger question is more about whether Eflin wants to bet on himself getting healthy which would probably imply a 1-year deal (maybe with options that kick in to make it like a 3/50 deal if he hits inning goals).

Remember the competitive balance tax threshold is $233 million next season so it is more than 10% higher than in 2021. 3/36 is really not that much within a larger threshold. We are going to see guys like DeGrom and Verlander and Judge test the $40-$50 million AAV range this offseason.

[zambonir]

Yeah, 3/36 basically makes him Kyle Gibson (3/28) three years ago. And Gibson signed that deal heading into his age 32 season coming off a 4.84 ERA and 0.3 WAR. That's what a 4th starter gets. If Eflin's a healthy third he's a $15 million AAV guy for sure.

[Lucky_Beagle]

This shows why it has to be important to be able to develop a starting pitcher every year or two even if they top out as a #3 or even #4.

[zambonir]

And go figure, they haven't been so bad at that. Rotation started out this year with Nola, Eflin and Suarez as 3/5ths, all reasonably priced relative to their service time and performance. Wheeler still a good value as an ace and Gibson a big upgrade over previous #5s (i.e. Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, Vince).

And you kind of have to wonder what this front office and pitching coach might have done with Pivetta (if not VV, who was a free agent anyway).

The question now is if Falter - or even Sanchez - can hold a spot, or only be depth/placeholders for one or more of the kids.

[LoneStarPhan]

While still holding hope for a miraculous pair of wins in Houston, I am getting excited for the off season: Roster moves, trades, free agent signings, waiver pickups, rule 5 draft, and finally spring training.

It should be a fun time. I have confidence in the organization and more trust that they will improve the team for 2023. I also look forward to seeing several prospects coming up and contributing in the next year or two.

[zambonir]

2022 Phillies Post-Season Campaign Discussion

Not sure what to think about the Masataka Yoshida stories I have been seeing of late.

It is nice to see a Japanese star expressing interest in the Phillies, but is he the player the Phillies should be spending big bucks to bring in for 2023?

Probably meant to do that here. Supposedly he's a huge Harper fan. They really would have to trade Hoskins or Castellanos (moving Schwarber to DH or 1B) to do it.

[andyb]

I had not seen that but good news if true. Here is the tweet:

Orix Buffaloes star Masataka Yoshida has stated that he wants to be posted.

The face of the franchise since he debuted in 2016, Yoshida is an on-base machine (career .421) who's coming off his first 1.000 OPS season, and put up a 201 wRC+.

Preference is likely the #Phillies pic.twitter.com/ewE3jQJg8c

— Gaijin Baseball/外国人野球 ( @GaijinBaseball ) October 31, 2022

Fangraphs only has him as a 35+ FV (and age 29 next year). LF so really would require someone like Hoskins to go to fit in the lineup somewhere. OBP might translate. Not sure about the power though.

Masataka Yoshida Japanese Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

[zambonir]

2022 Phillies Post-Season Campaign Discussion

Can Yoshida play centerfield?

Supposedly not even a good LF (and that's his only position).

[bkeich]

At this point Castellanos is a sunken cost, but honestly I wouldn't even count on him to start next year. He has earned a bench spot at this point. If they can get a defense first OF that can hit that would be my first choice, but even the Japanese player should be considered and move Castellanos to bench /DH until he can prove that he can hit better.

When Schwarber was below the Mendoza line he was still valuable as he walks and has extreme power. Castellanos, if his batting average is low, is a terrible player. He has terrible on base skills, is statistically the worst defensive player in the league and his power was missing all season.

I would tell him he will be given a chance to earn playing time next year, but based on this year he shouldn't just be handed a starting job.

[Dirk41]

Hard to think they would bench Castellanos and also grueling thinking of him with another full season of ABs. Can he play first??

[bkeich]

I can't think of a reason to replace Hoskins (a better than average offensive player who forces pitchers to throw tons of pitches) with a guy who is a pitchers dream, swings at everything and doesn't hit very well.

[zambonir]

I'm less interested in punishing Castellanos than fixing him (or trading him, sure!). He is not supposed to be playing the outfield, but if Harper is going to miss a few months they still can't really sign someone else (unless he takes Vierling's roster spot). Ideally he has a bounce-back season and/or has to share DH time with a bunch of other guys (while maybe playing a little bit of LF).

[flyers19rw]

I can. Move him out along with Segura and get someone who can hit lead off and maybe play SS.
Hoskins is a great guy and would have value for some team just not this one any longer. He’s worse than Dick Stuart with his glove at first base. It costs games.

[zambonir]

Hoskins was still the Phillies' second most-valuable player this year by WAR, and that includes his defensive demerits (though obviously a healthy Harper would have been ahead of him). Schwarber and Bohm are really not any different/better, in terms of being flawed players.

I rule out nothing but I think keeping or not keeping Rhys will have no effect on whether or not the Phillies sign another marquee free agent. And they won't actually put a better player at 1B.

[nycphils]

Castellanos is making $20m per year through the 2026 season…better hope he reverts to anywhere close to form…not going to get benched for a few years at least

[Dirk41]

He's always been a very good hitter. After watching him am entire season, it's almost surprising with how long his swing is.

He'll get 500 plus ABs next year and hopefully sort it out.

[VoteForKalas]

Reflecting on this season and playoff run, I'd like to give kudos to the team for their achievements.

They need more depth in the pen, specifically a reliable long man to bridge from the starters to the high leverage relievers; they need a more disciplined offensive approach. It was beyond frustrating to see them let opposing pitchers off the hook by swinging at junk and getting themselves out and they need to identify a reliable 4th starter so we can avoid so many of these "bullpen" games that tax our already overtaxed pen.

The defense improved, the offense carried us for stretches, Wheeler & Nola were excellent overall, Bohm, Stott and Marsh are starting to figure it out, Suarez was a revelation, Alvarado, Dominguez and Eflin helped stabilize the pen a lot, the team bonded with each other and the city and they restored the faith of the fanbase.

Hopefully, we can get back to this level; history says it likely will not happen which is why opportunities like this need to be cherished, but this team has many elements in place and should continue to do well. If we can shift Stott to 2B and land one of the good SS, all the better. Get Harper back in RF and let's roll.