Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[andyb]

The Phillies likely assume they will get little WAR out of Harper the last 3 years. They were more likely valuing the first 10 around $9 million per WAR. 35 WAR * 9 = $315 million. Harper came with a nice AAV because of the length of the deal, but not really at a discount unless they really believe he will produce much at age 38. I am sure they think there is a chance and they hope for that - but doubt they really expected it.

Money is useful when you don't have top prospects. None of the contracts the Phillies have signed including Arrieta and Castellanos have been catastrophic. In general they have done well with big contracts compared to most other organizations.

[zambonir]

I am happy to see they are meeting with Correa. I don't have a real issue with Swanson but either way you can't leave him out, in case you miss on the others. I think a team with Swanson at SS and Segura at 2B is still quite a bit better than with Stott at SS and Segura (or anyone) at 2B.

Arrieta was considered a bargain at the time. He wound up a disappointment for sure but still delivered value the Phillies were actually unable to get from any of the alternatives (both youngsters and more modestly priced vets). I think he's also instructive as to Eflin's value - teams still have more faith in an under 30 FA with some health issues than an over 31-FA who will inherently have them.

[Austinfan]

I wish the best for Eflin, but $40M for a guy who's got a chronic knee condition is whistling past the graveyard.

Harper as a DH platoon could still give you 2 WAR a season unless his bat speed goes totally south.
Not sure I'd count on him as a full-time player at 37-39 years old.
But on a really long contract, even at 5% inflation, by year 10 that $7M per WAR is up to $10-11M.
So the out year risk is reduced.

[zambonir]

I think we're misperceiving the money as much as the players. Pitchers who are minus 1.0 WAR still make $8 million if they have the service time and aren't clearly cooked (we had two of them in 2020). Baumann characterizes the Eflin deal thusly...

3/$40M is a good deal for a league-average starter who'll be 31 at the end of the deal. That's all TBR needs Eflin to be. But his pitch mix has changed a lot in the past 18 months and he hasn't gotten a chance to really let it rip. Maybe there's another gear here. https://t.co/4Ts7JJIneF

— Michael Baumann ( @MichaelBaumann ) December 2, 2022

I would argue that he's league-average with the injury issues. i.e. if he only makes 45 starts instead of 90 over the next three years he's still going to put up enough WAR. With perfect health - with or without the upside Baumann hints at - he's more. With serious DL time he's less but I don't know that his knees make him any more of a risk for that than most pitchers due to upper body stuff.

[allentown]

but I don't know that his knees make him any more of a risk for that than most pitchers due to upper body stuff

Most pitchers don't currently have serious upper body stuff and Eflin's knee problems don't vaccinate him against average injury rate from upper body woes -- they are a serious risk IN ADDITION TO normal upper body risk. Actually, I'd argue that he is at increased risk of upper body woes, because of how his knee woes effect his delivery (less reliable push off and having to be extra concerned about landing). Chronic knee issues are a very big deal. I'd say right up there with shoulder issues.

[zambonir]

True. But this is clearly a supply and demand issue. There aren't that many pitchers. We've seen what two of them with demonstrable talent (at their respective levels and ages) got despite their health issues so imagine what they would have gotten without them. Some fans will be glad the Phillies aren't paying these salaries because of the risk or just because it seems like too much money but maybe this just means the Phillies definitely need to shoot by the tax again. It's not like they can't afford it.

[bkeich]

Picking up Cave almost seems like an administrative move. He is a 4th OF, slumped last two years, but a .708 OPS over last 5, below average CF, average corner defense. Can start a few games for you, but really isn't a starter.

Basically, he establishes the "be better than this to make the team". The dream for the team would be to sneak him through waivers at some point and stash him at LHV. That of course might be not be something Cave would be very happy about.

If they try to sneak him through waivers after most of the Free Agents are signed there might be a chance when roster spots are tight. That said, low revenue teams might grab him hoping he could be a bottom of the order starter for them in CF.

[julio]

The dream for the team would be to sneak him through waivers at some point and stash him at LHV. That of course might be not be something Cave would be very happy about.

They may not have to; according to Spotrac, Cave has an option year remaining.

[bkeich]

Ahh, yes, that is correct. I didn't bother looking when he was 29 and waived. My guess is that they may have to get him off the 40 man at some point, so it may not matter. Only having 14 spots available for "prospects and backups" is one thing that I wish they would change. Going to 26 and sometimes larger rosters should have also included increasing to a 42 man roster. 40 is just too tight.

[zambonir]

MLBTR explains Cave's contract here

Phillies Claim Jake Cave Off Waivers From Orioles

I don't really see the Phillies as being tight on 40-man space but obviously that can change. If they actually like Cave enough to where they think he has a legit shot at the 4-man bench there are other guys they can get rid of. Lots of pitching churn still to come too.

[andyb]

They may not have to; according to Spotrac, Cave has an option year remaining.

They still might try to sneak him through though. It has little to do with his options and more to do with his limited playing ability. He may not be worth the 40-man spot once the team signs a few major league free agents that require roster spots.

The "sneak" refers to trying to remove him off the roster at a point when many fewer teams have a spot available. Notice there have been a dozen claims the last few days. Spots will start to disappear later in the winter after free agent signings and the rule 5 draft. There may be a time when they can sneak him off.

[zambonir]

Cave was projected to get $1.2 million in arbitration, so I think that was part of the reason the Orioles thought he would clear, presumably he's making about a $1,000,000 when up, vs, an extra piece who would only make major league minimum. But that's not really a huge factor for the Phillies especially if they view him as someone who would spend most of the year in AAA (or maybe just a few months in the bigs while Harper is out).

If and when they need the space or can find someone better, he'll either stick or he won't. The question is do they actually like him enough, and want a LHB who can play the OF enough, that he would actually win a 26-man spot tomorrow. Over Hall, basically (that would make Vierling/Cave the RF platoon and Castellanos the full-time DH, with the additional option of playing Cave in LF and DHing Schwarber occasionally).

As andy says he has "limited playing ability" but so does Hall. Just different kinds of limits.

[phillychuck]

Cave is, not surprisingly given how he was acquired, a replacement level player at this stage of his career. OPS+ the last three seasons of around 80... Doesn't walk, has little bit of power, and not useful when he hits .220 or so, which is his average since 2020. I wouldn't waste $1M of the team's money on him myself.

[zambonir]

And yet somehow Cave put up 0.6 WAR in 164 ABs last year (not literally replacement level) vs. Hall's 0.4 in 136 ABs. The key decision point, if it really does ever come to one, would be that someone like Cave makes the team better with a little defense plus, more importantly, by putting Castellanos at DH. Whereas Hall makes the team better with a little offense but worse by putting Castellanos in RF.

The better solution, obviously, would be to find a player who has some of both attributes (i.e, better hitter, can actually play OF). And you could also make the case that Maton might hold down RF part-time just as well.

Granted the pitching churn could make roster space tighter but my guess is the Phillies would be happy to keep Cave on the 40 and in AAA. If Hall breaks camp as the DH and Vierling keeps his job they still can use a LHB OF who can play all three spots on call, unless they are ready to use Muzziotti. If they had to make space for him tomorrow they could just ditch Ortiz.

Or perhaps Cave's "replacement" will be here in just a few days (i.e. via Rule 5. Then by the time Harper comes back maybe the old team lets you keep the player, or you don't care anymore).

[Aquapong]

I think Cave is just outfield depth until if/when someone better comes along. Kind of like Munoz of this year.

[zambonir]

Or Mercado. Or Zimmer. But those guys didn't have options and thus came and went quickly. Munoz was on a minor league deal/not on the 40, but eventually got on it (and could still be optioned).

[julio]

Cave was projected to get $1.2 million in arbitration, so I think that was part of the reason the Orioles thought he would clear, presumably he's making about a $1,000,000 when up, vs, an extra piece who would only make major league minimum

I can't imagine why that would cause most clubs to avoid claiming Cave. The major league minimum for 2023 is $720,000. The difference between that and $1.2 million is, in the context of the Phils' payroll, little more than a rounding error.

[zambonir]

Well, that was MLBTR's analysis. But yes, that sort of penny-pinching would only apply to a lower-payroll club (and especially not to a tax-paying club, if the Phillies are one again. The Phillies paid, what, a few million (at least prorated) just to put extra guys on the 60-day?).

[julio]

Well, that was MLBTR's analysis. But yes, that sort of penny-pinching would only apply to a lower-payroll club (and especially not to a tax-paying club, if the Phillies are one again).

Yeah. The difference there (just under $500k) isn't dissimilar to the costs Dombrowski was incurring by recalling optioned players from AAA and putting them on the 60-day IL to free up roster space.

I mean, if you're Pittsburgh, $500k is more than a rounding error — but even if you're Pittsburgh, it's only about 1% of your payroll (if your payroll budget is held to $50 million). Still, I can see a Pittsburgh not wanting to pay out that extra $500k.

It may seem weird to characterize a half-million dollars as "a rounding error." In our own lives... well, not so much, right? And yet, I spent 11 years in New Jersey OMB, where we developed a budget that ran to multiple tens of $ billions. A $500k line item was...well, literally a rounding error. The state budget was prepared and expressed in $ millions, so if a particular anticipated cost came in at less than $500k, it rounded to zero, and disappeared from most presentations.

[tom81]

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1599850410553982976
BREAKING: Shortstop Trea Turner and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a contract, a source tells ESPN.