Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[andyb]

Funny nobody's mentioned Bohm, who is actually the closest to arbitration and the most proven player (however inconsistently)... but also probably still more likely to be non-tendered than tied up long-term by 2026.

I have doubts he'll ever be an average regular with his defense. Could he have one or two 3+ WAR seasons? Sure. But my guess is over the next 6 years he does it once or twice max and has many more 1-2 WAR seasons.

I wanted to extend players that profile as average starters or better WHEN their performance is also close to their scouting projection. That is where Stott comes in. And Ranger Suarez and Seranthony Dominguez. I would start with those 3 and go on from there. The pitchers would get shorter deals because of injury risk (maybe 4 years for each), but extending them likely saves some money. I wish I could see Bohm as an 850 OPS hitter with average defense at 3B. I just don't at this point.

[miker]

Anyone else worried about Bogaert's offensive stats away from Fenway (were we to sign him)? He has a career average of .312 and a a career OPS of .872 at home. This drops to .271/.758 away; still good but far from elite.

[Austinfan]

Yep, same with Colorado players. Ignore the home stats, unlikely to translate anywhere else.

[andyb]

Boegarts still earned 5.4 oWAR on Baseball Reference offensive WAR the last 2 seasons. A 126 OPS+ on the road is not chopped liver. The valuations bandied about are much more based on stuff like WAR than home and road stats. Career stats are a bit misleading too so his first 5 years were only good but not great. Obviously there is a chance for age-based regression, but his age 25-29 OPS+ stats are remarkably consistent: 135, 139, 128, 129, 131.

Castellanos is obviously a cautionary tale signed at the same age, but he was far less consistent age 25-29: 112, 128, 122, 100, 138.

[xogfog]

To me, part of the decision on SS is how long Harper will be out, if he is going to miss at least half of next year, I might make a bigger move to get Correa.

[zambonir]

For me that doesn't really factor in. Correa may be the best of them but his age and lack of QO compensation and likelihood of sticking at SS longer is the main reason I'd want him, not any potential greater production for 2-3 months. He's also probably going to get the most money and longest term, and you can't let half or one-third of the current season force you into that if you don't otherwise want it (but they should want it, regardless of anything else).

If one of those guys was a LHB I might be a little more tempted, in terms of replacing Harper. But they are all RHBs who will essentially be replacing Segura's RHB.

[Austinfan]

Since Harper was the DH, Hall is the obvious LH bat to plug in, with Castellanos as the RH platoon with Vierling in RF to start the season. Unless you can add a LH bat that's better than Hall on a one year deal.

Don't think Harper is playing RF until 2024, and at that point you have to start worrying about his range.

[zambonir]

Right, as things currently stand Hall gets the gig. But Castellanos and Vierling aren't a platoon. What you really want is to platoon Castellanos and Hall at DH and pick up another LHB to play some OF, even though Nick will still be handed the job if it's open.

The short bench and the excess of DH types who can only otherwise play LF or 1B (if that) is still an issue.

I think if Harper has surgery he will be in the OF immediately though. Maybe not all the time and maybe not at a high level, but If he was planning to just DH he might not even be having surgery.

[BostonRoss]

I may not be remembering correctly, but the Phillies are one of the first teams I remember signing a player to a longer contract before they had to. It was Scott Rolen. The only earlier one I remember is Nomar (who was Rookie of the Year the same year Rolen was--interesting that they both later shot their way out of town).

[Austinfan]

Castellanos would play full-time, Vierling and Hall are the platoon.
Assuming Castellanos bounces back, but given what they're on the hook for, they'll give him every chance.

[Ryles]

I agree that Hall & Vierling are the platoon. I believe that Hall is the better fielder than Hoskins. Hoskins DH's while Hall plays 1B. Vierling plays RF, Hoskins 1B, Castellanos DH as other part of platoon.

[zambonir]

But none of those scenarios involve any real platoons. Hoskins and Castellanos still start every game (except for normal rest/off-days) one way or another. Hall only gets to play - or even be on the roster - while Harper is out, regardless of whether he or Hoskins play 1B. Against LHP - the less frequent situation - it would be Vierling RF, Castellanos DH, Hoskins 1B.

If Harper's only out for a month or two the above is exactly what will happen. But if they think he's out 2-3 months, or that he can't play the field (which I don't think will the case, once he's rehabbed, he's rehabbed) they could use a LH batter who is better - and able to play the OF - over Hall.

And the way they "used" Hall down the stretch and in the playoffs suggests they might already think that. It wasn't just that there was no role for him off the bench. He had a very impressive stint over 136 ABs but you put him at 1B and he probably becomes a (slightly) negative WAR player. And if he hits a sophomore slump or adjustment period at the plate he won't be a good enough DH either (though neither was Castellanos obviously).

Basically they need 2019 Brad Miller.

[andyb]

Hall hit most of his HRs against the Nationals or position players. And he almost never faced LHP. He is fine as depth if Harper or Hoskins is out, but probably not good enough to make the roster absent that. Not sure his defense is really any better than Hoskins either. The team certainly thought it was better to play Hoskins most of the time there when they were both in the lineup, so guessing any difference in favor of Hall defensively is not dramatic.

[zambonir]

"Almost" is generous. 12 PAs/ABs. 1 hit. Two starts. Take away those appearances and his OPS was .865. Still probably not sustainable and also remains to be seen if he could be a good PH (but on a short bench, still hard to include him). And Nick Maton's numbers were actually better (especially including defense and OBP) albeit in half as much work.

As as a short-term patch Hall does suit this righty-heavy line-up. Even Bohm could be the primary DH against lefties to get Sosa in. Or you rest the new SS on those days. Otherwise, Castellanos. But I could easily see them giving the gig to Maton in order to allow for more flexibility all over the field (and to give everyone more DH shots).

I'm not even convinced Vierling will make the team. It just depends what else happens. I think they would still prefer for Marsh to play every day, and if Nick is the RF for a while that's less need for Vierling too.

[EDmuch]

If Hall was really a viable potential stater, I would think Kevin Long and Rob Thomson would have figured that out during the playoffs.

[Taudawg]

No real revelations included, but figured it is worth the share here -

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

[Taudawg]

Of MLB Trade Rumors suggestions I like Jameson Taillon and Carlos Estévez ideas. Taillon has been a solid and durable starter. Estévez good numbers away from Coors Field.

I'm fine with Falter starting 2023 in the rotation, yet the Corey Kulber one year idea is intriguing. Johnny Cueto on a one year deal works as well.

[andyb]

Our Corey K. free agent track record is not wonderful. I do like Taillon and Estevez both though. They will be mid-priced, but there is upside with both of them and the floor (absent injury) is not awful with either.

[Austinfan]

One year "show me" deals make sense for the Phillies, buys time for Painter, Abel and McGarry, as well as some lesser lights like Falter, Sanchez and Skirrow. We're talking 4th and 5th starters, so it doesn't make sense to break the bank unless you're landing a durable 26 year old who can replace Wheeler or Nola in a year or two.

[andyb]

MLB Trade Rumors Chat here with some more speculation. Thinks the Phillies are probably going to get one of the top SS. Plus a 3/4 starter.

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-2022-23-offseason-chat-philadelphia-phillies-14433.html