Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[andyb]

Coonrod signs. A giant $25K under his MLB rumors estimate.

The Phillies and RHP Sam Coonrad have agreed to a $775K deal for 2023, per source. Coonrad was entering his first year of arbitration.

— Mark Feinsand ( @Feinsand ) November 18, 2022

[Austinfan]

Good depth move, if he's healthy, maybe they can refine him a bit and get a useful back of the pen piece.

[zambonir]

Everyone else tendered.

Phillies tender contracts to five arbitration-eligible players, including Rhys...

For all the talk about dumping Rhys I do wonder if they'll at least make him a modest extension offer. And they have definitely started signaling about Nola. But both players may prefer to hit the open market (though I'm not sure Rhys will like what he finds there).

[Austinfan]

Note that this 5 players will have a net cost of $10M over last season, eating into the money saved from FAs walking.

[tom81]

Note that this 5 players will have a net cost of $10M over last season, eating into the money saved from FAs walking.

And they are collectively a bargain at that price.

[zambonir]

They might consider extending all of them except Rhys and Sosa.

[Austinfan]

Sosa they have time, see what Long can do with his bat.
Given his defensive prowess, .700+ OPS is worth an extension if they don't sign a big name SS (or that SS has the arm to move to 3B).

[andyb]

Sosa is the guy you want to give an extension to? Just because he might get better is not a reason to do that. Stott on the other hand could get expensive at some point so he is the one you might offer a Braves-like underpaid deal.

[Aquapong]

It seems the only way to add a SS and pitching is spend past the tax at this point.

[julio]

Stott on the other hand could get expensive at some point so he is the one you might offer a Braves-like underpaid deal.

Maybe a year from now, maybe two years from now, but IMHO not at this point. Stott has just under one year of service time (171 days), won't be eligible for initial arbitration until 2025, and FA until 2029. I could see an effort to buy out his arb years at something likely below market, but I think you consider that when he's close to arbitration, when there's more track record.

[andyb]

Maybe a year from now, maybe two years from now, but IMHO not at this point

Of course that is true but it completely ignores the benefit of signing a player early. An early extension on a player (like Kingery) is a bet on them being good and buying out not only their arbitration years but some of their free agent years. It is the Braves strategy. If you are sure about a player then get them at a 50% discount on those later years.

If one goes year by year you pay full price. That is why Hoskins will have to go when he is a free agent. That is largely the reason Ryan Howard got paid so much (and why the disaster of his injury was compounded). We actually did extend Utley early and it worked out splendidly for both sides.

The risk of going year to year is the risk of paying market value. If one is sure about a player one should extend them early. Houston has done a bunch of this too. Smart teams do it earlier rather than later.

The key is the evaluation on Stott. I see a pretty advanced bat that will produce a solid OBP over time and probably settle into 15 HR power (a high OBP 750 OPS). That is pretty valuable and it is a pretty safe projection because he basically did that in the second half. Defense is more uncertain and that is why the defensive evaluation is key but I am in the camp where he is acceptable at SS and very good at 2B.

That is enough to take the risk of the extension.

[Philsmania]

Maybe a year from now, maybe two years from now, but IMHO not at this point

Of course that is true but it completely ignores the benefit of signing a player early. An early extension on a player (like Kingery) is a bet on them being good and buying out not only their arbitration years but some of their free agent years. It is the Braves strategy. If you are sure about a player then get them at a 50% discount on those later years.

If one goes year by year you pay full price. That is why Hoskins will have to go when he is a free agent. That is largely the reason Ryan Howard got paid so much (and why the disaster of his injury was compounded). We actually did extend Utley early and it worked out splendidly for both sides.

The risk of going year to year is the risk of paying market value. If one is sure about a player one should extend them early. Houston has done a bunch of this too. Smart teams do it earlier rather than later.

The key is the evaluation on Stott. I see a pretty advanced bat that will produce a solid OBP over time and probably settle into 15 HR power (a high OBP 750 OPS). That is pretty valuable and it is a pretty safe projection because he basically did that in the second half. Defense is more uncertain and that is why the defensive evaluation is key but I am in the camp where he is acceptable at SS and very good at 2B.

That is enough to take the risk of the extension.

I suppose one frequently hears about the early extensions which backfire (Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery, Odubel Herrrera) more often than the ones that don't. In hindsight, they probably should have given Howard six years $150 million after 2006. As for me on Stott, I would revisit this in a year.

Oh, and the Phillies did the early extension thing with Burrell, albeit after his third ML season. Ed Wade did that.

[gmwannabe]

Yes, you don't want to jump the gun on Stott like they did with kingery. give him his 2 more years to see the progress.
gm

[julio]

Yes, you don't want to jump the gun on Stott like they did with kingery. give him his 2 more years to see the progress.
gm

I wouldn't be that arbitrary. I agree with the 'don't jump the gun' sentiment - but I would re-evaluate next winter, not automatically wait two more years. Next season could be "kinda like" 2022, or the kid could explode. I don't know that's likely, but he's young enough that I wouldn't rule it out.

[zambonir]

Well, Stott of course is separate issue as he doesn't even get much of a raise or an actual tender this year. Which is leverage for the Phillies if they want to take the early risk but it doesn't seem like their style. Ranger/Seranthony/Alvarado are more pressing in terms of trying to save money in 2024 and 2025. Sosa just isn't, financially.

[andyb]

Yes they do backfire, but it is less often than you actually think because of the discount involved. Kingery was a mistake before he even played much AAA ball. Singleton also. But Kingery cost only $24 million also and Singleton was a mere $10 million. Pocket change. Herrera was actually not much of a misfire. From 2017-2021 (the 5 years in the deal) they got 4.5 WAR out of it. So the $/WAR was not awful. In a year to year mode he would have made close to the minimum in 2017 but then received decent arbitration awards in 2018 and 2019. So they probably would have paid more than $15 million from 2017-2019 going year to year before releasing him after 2019. So they ended up spending an extra $15 million and getting a 1.8 WAR year in 2021 out of that.

So the Herrera contract looks much worse than it was. Michael Harris just signed an 8 year $72 million deal that covers his age 22 through 29 years AND has team friendly options for years 9 and 10 at $15 and $20 million. So 2 pre-arbitration years, 3 arbitration years and 3 free agent years for $72 million.

With Scott who is a couple of years older we could probably go a year shorter (7 years total) and at least 20% less AAV. Would he take a 7 year/$50 million contract with an option year or two at the end? I have no idea. But I'd sure want to explore something like that. When people complain about spending too much money on free agency, this is the EXACT WAY TO PREVENT THAT. Get a below market deal where the risk is on a player you are pretty sure about.

[Austinfan]

I think I want to see two full seasons (time for pitchers to adjust and see if the hitter can counter) before I give an extension, you'll still save if you cover arb years and a couple FA years - ideally from age 26 or 27 through 32 or so, so you don't face the 29-30 year old player dilemma (do I let them walk or overpay in the out years?).

Sosa, like Marsh, flashed a hit tool before regressing, both are gambles, but if Long can turn them around, I'd extend them in two years when they're 26 if they've won starting jobs. If they're top reserves, you think in terms of 3 year, relatively inexpensive deals or trade them before they walk (if they think they can start elsewhere).

[allentown]

The Braves have done well with early long-term contracts. The Phillies tend to be followers in organizational philosophy and wanted to mimic the teams who tied up future stars early. It can be an excellent strategy, but you have to follow all of the steps. The first step is to have a superior prospect who can be a plus major leaguer for many years. The Braves have had a number of offensive prospects and young players who fit that mode. We skipped that step. Our top offensive prospects weren't as good as the Braves players. Kingery wasn't the guy. It's far from obvious that Stott is the guy. I'd give him most of the 2023 season and then make that decision. Same for Sosa and Marsh, who just don't look like good hitters to me. They may improve. Then you can consider extensions. The one guy who has shouted "I should be extended" for quite a while is Nola. He's been our only super prospect in ages. Painter is on the edge of that. Bohm may get there.

If Stott were a sure-fire extension candidate, we wouldn't all be talking so much about needing to get a top-notch SS FA.

[zambonir]

We should be so lucky if we're worried about overpaying Stott - to say nothing of Marsh and Sosa - year-to-year. If Marsh and Sosa actually play well enough to be worth tying up they'll also be tradeable (or other players will be).

Funny nobody's mentioned Bohm, who is actually the closest to arbitration and the most proven player (however inconsistently)... but also probably still more likely to be non-tendered than tied up long-term by 2026.

[andyb]

Sosa, like Marsh, flashed a hit tool before regressing, both are gambles, but if Long can turn them around, I'd extend them in two years when they're 26 if they've won starting jobs. If they're top reserves, you think in terms of 3 year, relatively inexpensive deals or trade them before they walk (if they think they can start elsewhere).

You have far, far too much faith in Long. Pretty much every comment about a disappointing hitter regards Long turning them around. He is a good coach, but performance is probably more like 90% on the player and 10% on the coach. Marsh and Sosa have flaws that have been exposed over time. They both can improve, but they were never really plus hit tools. I have hopes for both but also realize they probably profile as below average starters - not the type I would extend early.

Stott is different. He can be at least average and maybe a tick better if his defense improves. And the floor of being a good defensive 2B with a good hit tool (for him a 700-750 OPS with a strong OBP component) is still a 3-4 WAR player even at 2B. That is why it is worth thinking about extending him for a discount.

Early extensions give you a 30%-50% discount. Once they hit arbitration though the discount is rarely much more than 10% (since you have had 2 more years to judge them - i.e. there is less risk so less discount). The older the player gets the more injury risk too regardless of when you extend them.

That is why the early extensions on 22-24 year olds generally have an excellent track record. Low injury risk because of age. And bigger discount because you are doing it early. We never got any sort of discount with Howard. That led to disaster when he hit free agency. If we had only locked him up for what they would have been huge dollars after his rookie season it would have been a huge win. An 8 year deal after his rookie season might have been for $200 million, but we would have gotten 6 good years and 2 injury filled seasons and not had to deal with the final 3 mediocre years of his injury dominated back end of his career. Sometimes going year to year and being transactional is not very smart.