Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[zambonir]

Meaning Correa is Bobby Abreu and Trea Turner is a more talented Aaron Rowand?

[The_Poster]

Perhaps, It's just nothing more than a gut feeling. His personality just seems to be a Philly team and city fit. Does anyone want to take a chance on Cody Bellinger @ 17 million?

[andyb]

With Boegarts they could easily move him to 2B and let Stott (perhaps with Sosa hitting against LHP) play SS.

Don't like the age and declining defense but his OBP is great and that should hold up even if his power is declining. As always the question is price and years, but he might be as good a fit as Turner whose speed is a bigger part of his effectiveness.

Correa is better of course and without compensation, but if the prediction of 7/189 holds that is only a $27 million AAV. I don't know which way they will go, but getting one of the top 4 shortstops does make sense even if they end up at 2B. This is why I keep mentioning how important it is that they value Stott's SS defense. If they can pencil in 5 more years of Stott at SS then it makes other things much more possible.

[bkeich]

Yes, but it might be very hard to sell these "top SS" that we are bringing you in to play 2B. Maybe some of them don't mind, but I bet most want to stay at "the most important position" (other than catcher).

Is Stott really that good of a defensive SS. I think he is ok, but he doesn't stand out.

Honestly, rather than all of these overpays for aging SS I would rather see them being back Segura for 2 years and instead spend the money on a second starting pitcher (I assume they are already going to get one)

[Docs]

Is there a pitcher on the market that you think the phils should target?

Edit: sounds like they might be able to get Rodon & a SS. So besides Rodon.

[bkeich]

That is a good question, and I honestly haven't looked Doc. I don't even mind a trade and extension for a guy who is in the last year of a contract. I just think we already have a few "wow, these guys aren't going to be worth it in a few years" contracts. Realmuto, Schwarber and Castellanos all have contracts that look rough in 3-4 years, even Harper may be tough to pay by then if he isn't viable in the OF.

Adding a contract for a 30 year old SS will also be tough when that player is 33 or so.

[andyb]

Is Stott really that good of a defensive SS. I think he is ok, but he doesn't stand out.

I agree with that. But I would also put Boegarts in the "ok but declining" category. It is reasonable to assume Stott will get a little better with experience and Boegarts will at best maintain his form for a couple of years.

I know it is not enticing to say there is a possibility he will be moved, but you don't have to promise more than competition and Boegarts probably knows he won't play SS for 7 more years. He probably thinks 2 or 3 at the most. He is no Jeter that was never moved but should have been moved.

[andyb]

Is there a pitcher on the market that you think the phils should target?

If you want a midlevel starter who might still have some upside, how about Jameson Taillon? His injury history will limit his price (MLB Rumors prediction of 4/56) but he was very good last year and pretty healthy. He is no Zach Wheeler since his velocity is down post surgery, but he also fits the model of really good BB/K ratio that the Phillies seem to value in their rotation (Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, Eflin all deliver that to some degree).

[RolenRules]

If the Phillies get one of the big four SS, it should be Correa IMO. He is the best and the youngest, as he will be playing almost the entire 2023 season as a 28 year old. So he should be in his prime, and also 1- 3 years younger than the Phillies' current core. One issue with the 2008 team was that most of its core was practically the same age, so most of them started to go over the hill in 2012. He will likely be the most expensive. but the Phils have the $$.

I do think Trea Turner would be a good alternative. He will play half of the 2023 season as a 29 year old. However, as noted above he would cost the Phils $ and draft picks.

If the Phils do not go with any of the big four, I think they would get as much out of a Maton/Sosa platoon as they would with Segura, and be able to save $ for pitching. Jean will be playing the entire 2023 season as a 33 year old, where the likelihood of a large drop off starts to become significant.

[zambonir]

Realmuto, Schwarber and Castellanos all have contracts that look rough in 3-4 years, even Harper may be tough to pay by then if he isn't viable in the OF.

While I share the general concern, in three years (after 2025) neither Realmuto or Schwarber will be under contract. One assumes Castellanos will be gone or cooked by his last year (2026).

By all means you want this year's signing to still be valuable in 2026 and 2027; can't expect much beyond that. But they're still on a different timeline than the rest of this group besides Harper.

[BostonRoss]

Is Stott really that good of a defensive SS. I think he is ok, but he doesn't stand out.

I agree with that. But I would also put Boegarts in the "ok but declining" category. It is reasonable to assume Stott will get a little better with experience and Boegarts will at best maintain his form for a couple of years.

I know it is not enticing to say there is a possibility he will be moved, but you don't have to promise more than competition and Boegarts probably knows he won't play SS for 7 more years. He probably thinks 2 or 3 at the most. He is no Jeter that was never moved but should have been moved.

Can you cite statistics to show that Bogaerts is "declining"? Per FanGraphs, it looks like he was better defensively in 2022 than in previous years, and he didn't decline in 2021 either.

[phillychuck]

Defensive stats for both Turner and Bogaerts show them to be slightly above average at SS with no noticeable trends at this point. If they want to stay at SS you let them stay.

[Aquapong]

Before Sabermetrics, players played their whole career at one spot whether they declined or not. A guy staying at CF and SS and being a defensively viable player is rare anymore. I don’t think it’s bad to sign a guy that will likely move down the defensive spectrum over his contract if you believe in his offensive capability.

Stott is solid at SS. Not a great arm but enough to make most plays. He would fit better at second, but it’s not the end of the world to have him at SS. If we sign Bogaerts or Turner, I think a move to 2b is coming sooner then for Correa or Swanson. I’m not sure any of them has the arm for 3rd except Correa.

[Austinfan]

The arm for 3rd is a big plus, because these days, few 3B hit much better than 2B, but when they lose the range for SS they're more valuable if they can play 3B at a high level (which requires a plus arm).

So if they're an average to slightly below average SS, they may still be above average at 3B, which makes their declining hit tool more valuable. At 2B they need more range but less arm.

[zambonir]

Clearly Stott is not good enough to stop them from signing a SS, but also good enough to go back there for a few years if needed. I wouldn't write off Sosa either. Is he going to win a starting job and turn into a 100 OPS+ player? No, but he put up 0.8 WAR in just 59 PAs (and his 1.6 including St. Louis was higher than both Stott and Bohm). And it isn't really run production this team lacks.

Replacing Segura in the line-up with one of these guys is an upgrade, especially if Jean declines as he probably should. But it's also about upgrading across the entire infield (except 1B). The FA will be better at SS than Stott, Stott will be better at 2B than Segura, and Sosa will see time everywhere.

[Jim]

How about the Phillies trade Hoskins to Miami for Lopez, move Bohm to first, then sign Bogaerts for third and Turner for ss.

[Aquapong]

You’re setting your sights too low. Hoskins should at least net is Alcantara.

[zambonir]

Haha yes, how 'bout Rhys and Painter and Rojas?

Even if Rhys was an All-Star who would merit a great trade price, a team salary-dumping controllable players isn't going to take a max-priced pending free agent in return. The Marlins may want MLB-ready players but not veterans.

If the Phillies could actually afford to sign both those guys you could just non-tender Rhys. But they can't. And Bohm's still not really the answer at 1B.

[gmwannabe]

I'd love Sandy. Zamby, I think that is too much. I might give up Erik Miller and one of the young Latin, up and coming, pitchers. With Hoskins.
gm

[BaseballCat]

Alcantara is signed for a very club friendly contract until 2027 (club option). It would take the moon to get him in trade starting with Painter and Rojas. While I would love him, I am hoping Painter is our Alcantara
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/miami-marlins/sandy-alcantara-24440/