Phillies at the Trade Deadline

[Taudawg]

80% or more of all deadline deals happen on July 31 - at least they did in 2018 and 2019. I'm not sure Dombrowski's job looks any different next Saturday. Whether they sweep the Nats or get Swept, they'll still be in the race. That said, I'd prefer they move sooner as well. I think the prices go up once available good players start coming off the board.

[bkox]

Deadline is 4PM Friday this year

[Taudawg]

Thanks, did not know about new deadline. Even more reason to go ahead and make moves now.

[bkeich]

We started this season saying that the 2 positions we clearly had filled were RF and 3B (before Realmuto signed, so 3 after). Now I can’t help but think, it is time to replace Bohm as a starter if we could contend (which I still think is a bad idea).

Who might we look at? Bryant?

[zambonir]

Bohm was hitting very well before he went on the COVID IL. Regardless, Bryant would play all over the field, and probably CF the most.

[bkox]

Padres just aquired Adam Frazier from the Pirates

The deal, which is pending medical reviews, involves the Padres also receiving money to help offset the approximately $1.3 million left on Frazier’s salary. The 29-year-old, who has a .324 batting average and .388 on-base percentage this season, is under team control through 2022.

The Padres will send multiple minor leaguers to the Pirates, including infielder/outfielder Tucupita Marcano, their fifth-ranked prospect. Also reportedly heading to Pittsburgh are 22-year-old outfielder Jack Suwinski, who has a .949 OPS for Double-A San Antonio, and 21-year-old right-hander Michell Miliano, who has a 3.60 ERA at High-A Fort Wayne.

Marcano is the 5th best prospect in the Pads system according to MLB pipeline. The other two not in the top 30

Full return for Adam Frazier here from Kiley. Marcano is the main guy, but Jack* Suwinski is OPSing around .950 at AA and Miliano is a strikeout machine, with 59 in 30 innings between both Class A levels this season. https://t.co/oGtvSWSIEd

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 25, 2021

[Sabin]

He almost has to right - have a big surprise or two?

IMHO, some shrewd selling-while-buying maneuvers are the kind the organization needs to be making, particularly if they want to put together a well-rounded club also capable of contending in the short-term (and are which I assume why they sought out Dombrowski in the first place). The Phillies stayed rather committed to course over the past two seasons, sticking to the plan that was to see younger, team-developed talent coupled with some bigger-name FAs to fill in the gaps. As we know, the former has not panned out, leaving them the latter, and an expensive .500 club.

While there's talk going around of exceeding the CBT, I'm hesitant in my optimism there. I'm not against it, per se, I just think it should come with a plan. Obviously, the FO would also like to end the postseason drought. Exceeding the CBT might get them in this year; it might not. Even if it did, then what? If they truly want to maximize a return on that investment, I think the trading strategy (which, of course, could extend to the offseason) needs to include both buying and selling to help restock the failed drafting and development in the 2000-teens.

[Sabin]

He was (in fact a little better than I remembered), but I still wonder how much is sustainable (high babip), and where it puts him in the field.

June 1 - July 10:

120 PA
.315 /.383 /.417 (.800)
.410 babip
5 2b, 2 hr, 17 rbi
28k / 11bb

Not to go unmentioned, but for the guy that was on pace to shatter the GDP record early on, Bohm hasn't had one since May 30. (shakes the jinx-prevention rattle)

[zambonir]

While there's talk going around of exceeding the CBT, I'm hesitant in my optimism there. I'm not against it, per se, I just think it should come with a plan. Obviously, the FO would also like to end the postseason drought. Exceeding the CBT might get them in this year; it might not. Even if it did, then what? If they truly want to maximize a return on that investment, I think the trading strategy (which, of course, could extend to the offseason) needs to include both buying and selling to help restock the failed drafting and development in the 2000-teens.

Thing is they are so close to the threshold now that - while it could be mitigated by the other team picking up (or taking back) salary - I don't see how they do anything impactful without exceeding it. It's the difference between adding a Brandon Workman (2020) or Drew Smyly/Vargas (2019) vs. adding a Kimbrel and Rich Hill (even though they've missed out on Hill already). And it's certainly the difference between getting pitchers as well as a Buxton or a Bryant or even a new SS.

For sure the off-season will see a ton of moves in both directions but I don't really see how they execute a buy-while-selling strategy at this deadline. The free agents to-be have little value, especially the most replaceable ones. And if you trade Hoskins while getting Bryant you still don't have a CF (and indeed, if Bohm doesn't keep hitting he doesn't look so good at 1B either); if you trade Didi (which probably gets you nothing if you want out of next year's $) you have to go get a SS in addition to a CF or bat. The best they can hope for is to unload the guys they might otherwise DFA (like Vince or Kintzler) or option (Herrera) if they've upgraded those spots.

I don't think there is much Dombrowski can do to replenish the farm system at this point. It's win now (until 2023) while drafting and developing beyond that. A few key pieces to hold onto that hopefully help sooner (Howard, Stott, Moniak) but even that depends on what else they do.

[schillingfan]

I can’t remember if there is draft picks penalty for first year over the threshold? I thought it was just money the first year.

[bkox]

A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

[zambonir]

Pretty unlikely we'd exceed it by $20 million, let alone $40 million.

But (I think) Atown was referring to FA compensation. A normal team (neither a tax-payer nor a receiver of revenue-sharing, as the Phillies have been) loses its 2nd-round pick (technically second-highest pick) and $500K in international for signing a QO free agent. A taxpayer loses the 2nd and the 5th, and $1,000,000.

So if we go over the tax and then sign Kris Bryant or Max Scherzer or Carlos Correa, yeah, it would hurt more as a taxpayer. And this is obviously not a team that should be giving up two picks in the first five rounds. But I would cross that bridge when the off-season arrives, not make decisions this week based on that.

It's also a bit of a Catch-22, because if you don't want them to exceed the CBT this week, you are basically signing up for giving up more talent in the trades. The Cubs would probably pay all of Kimbrel's salary if you give them enough of a return, just like Boston paid Workman's to get Seabold and Pittsburgh is paying Frazier's. Maybe that's worth it if you're also looking ahead to a QO FA (i.e. you give up more now but preserve your 2nd and our 5th next year). But if you're not, probably better to pay the tax and hold on to a better group of prospects.

[bkox]

Also remember that traded players do not get QOs. So any potential free agents that get traded this week, can be signed this off season without penalty

[zambonir]

Which also means if we trade for Bryant or Story or Marte or Scherzer and don't extend them, no compensation. But most of the elite FAs won't be traded.

We still don't know what's coming with the new CBA anyway.

[bkox]

Neither prospect in the Yanks top 30:

The Yankees announce they acquired RHP Clay Holmes from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for INF Diego Castillo and INF Hoy Park.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 26, 2021

[bkox]

So I was thinking.. do we need to do a bullpen piece? What if we did this.

Moved Howard to the pen. Hes dominant for 1-2 innings. Keep Falter and Suarez in the pen.

Your pen is:
Suarez
Falter
Howard
Neris
Alvarado
Coonrod (when he returns from IL)
Brogdon
Bradley

We then need to find a 4th and 5th starter... which might be easier than playing reliever roulette. And allows us to release Kintzler

[flyers19rw]

How frequently can you use Howard out of the pen? Right now he’s getting starters’ rest and can only go three innings.

[zambonir]

I just don't see any reason to think Howard can pitch well on a reliever's routine. He's unhittable one time through the order but only on a starter's rotation.

And relievers are cheaper than starters. Especially starters who are better than the four (Anderson, Moore, VV, Howard) we already have. We can probably only afford one and even then it's not clear it will be an above-average one.

Moving Falter or Suarez to the rotation is probably a better consideration. And then carry Howard as your long man.

[Sabin]

My argument wasn't that they shouldn't exceed the cap, rather that I'd like to see more in the form of a general plan before I get excited about it. For me, I think about years when the organization could have had a more tangible benefit and return by exceeding a draft allocation here or a salary cap there, and yet they're finally considering exceeding the CBT with a team struggling to maintain .500, four games back in the league's worst division, and with an apparent disregard for a proven vaccine against a virus that continues to randomly take players onto the IL (not to mention the more significant issue of the health and general well-being of the players, their families, and friends - for which it seems they're almost being rewarded for ignoring). So while it may prove a landmark decision that makes it easier to green light a future situation that could benefit the club more from the expense - or perhaps helps Dombrowski in turning things around organizationally over the next three years - it's hard for me to get excited here and now.

Focusing back onto this year's club and immediate direction, you and I are (I think) relatively aligned in feeling that the role of seller is likely the better one this season, but also in acknowledging that - barring a significant downturn from the previous two seasons - they were going to be buyers. And if in that role, they should look to make a splash beyond the simple bench bat and veteran reliever. While I concede all of that, I'm still looking as well as the next two seasons as well. If they're pondering a bigger piece, I'd like to see it not just be a rental. This is going to take some maneuvering, which isn't going to get done in the next five days (which is why I noted above it would likely move into the offseason). With the lack of prospects on the horizon, it's going to be hard to expect significantly different results in 2022/23 without external help.

[David_Criss]

Anderson, Moore, Velasquez, Howard are all openers only and sadly 3 of the 4 are being called starters.