Phillies Acquire Carlos Estevez from Angels

[LegoDoom]

We're all in and all it cost us was a guy with some arm talent who was on nobody's radar a couple of months ago (and is likely due for his value to crater in the next year or two)

Why do you think he's likely to crater?

He has ~150 IP in college and the minors and pitched half the time in high school. You think his arm is going to fall off?

If anyone is going to crater in this deal, it's going to be Estévez because his last 2 months are not sustainable.

Because Klassen has about 10 starts in low A ball that has you excited. And he still has to develop a couple of pitches to be viable as a starter. Most likely ends up as a reliever and if he ended up with Estevez' career - well, that would be a great result.

Estevez has an 8 year MLB career with 7 as a positive WAR RP, the last couple as a closer and has elevated his pitching (mostly through fewer walks and continuing a trend over the past few years of reducing HRs) for over a year now. Even some regression gives us a valuable contributor to this years WS pursuit.

Who is more likely to crater again?

Estévez. He has to get worse than what he's shown this year.

[andyb]

The absence of walks is interesting about Estevez and does suggest he has figured something out this year (last year walks were over 4 per 9). Probably makes him a good bet to be solid for the next 2 months and he'll have the benefit here of not being the only good arm in the bullpen. I like him very much as a pitcher. We just paid a price where one might think we should get an extra year of control for the prospects we gave up.

[Austinfan]

Not sure Dombrowski wanted that extra year, he may well figure he can only afford one of Hoffman and Estevez, and sees the end of the season as an "audition" to determine which one.

Phllies have the luxury of being a coveted destination and the money to sign players they want to keep.

[LegoDoom]

I mean maybe, but it's 10% of his career and his away splits over his career don't suggest Colorado was a problem with that. He can definitely figure something out at 31, but that is a pretty slow learner.

[zambonir]

Well it is certainly more fun when you get a Jeff Hoffman for nothing but the price on this trade doesn't bother me. Seems pretty clear they liked him best, Miller got hurt, Scott wouldn't have been much cheaper, and after that it is the next tier down. I am also glad it is someone in the prime of his bullpen career and not a Kimbrel or Kenley or Aroldis type.

If he is due for another rough patch like he had in April/May best to get it over with now

[LegoDoom]

I mean, his later months splits aren't great.

[phillychuck]

Estevez's key is keeping his 4-seamer in the top of the zone. He has been masterful with that for the last several months. If he can keep that up this might be the deal that wins us a playoff game or two. His fastball gets tattooed when it is down in the zone, and he has to avoid that pitch and not walk guys. He seems to be throwing more sliders behind in the count this year, which he may be using as a "control" pitch that doesn't usually get hit too hard because hitters are geared up for the 96-97 mph FB. I think he should try throwing a few more change-ups since they seem much more successful this season. Maybe 15-20% instead of 10%... But, for now, change NOTHING!!! Just keep that FB elevated.

Watch this video and you can see how he gets people out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMRJMcfQc90&t=2s

[andyb]

The point was that the prospect price was high for just a rental.

We may very well want Estevez back (or equivalent) but that will cost us lots of $$$ or other prospects if we make a trade in the offseason. Your strategy of just finding Jeff Hoffmans is not one any team can consciously do. Every team tries to find reclamation projects for free or little cost, but we are very intentional about penciling in proven arms in the bullpen. It is why we go out and add guys like Strahm and Soto for at least midlevel dollars and prospects.

[zambonir]

The real question is will the Phillies hand out a big 3-4 year deal to Estevez or Hoffman? I don't think they are going to get a deal like Strahm gave them, and Alvarado and Seranthony weren't free agents. Part of their bullpen philosophy has been to not pay top dollar or give out long deals to relievers. But even the trade itself is a shift in philosophy, to buy on the top shelf whereas Soto and Kimbrel were both outlet mall type pick-ups (even if Kimbrell still got paid pretty well, same as Knebel).

[andyb]

I think there is a good chance they do with Hoffman. Seems comfortable in any role and with the pitching staff that remade him. Obviously money could be a lot for a guy who may only occasionally close, but I think he has a lower price than Estevez and is a bit younger. We'll obviously see how Estevez meshes with the staff too so no conclusions there really till we see that.

[andyb]

Here is Keith Law on the trade. He likes Estevez though thinks he'll slot in below the highest leverage guys in the bullpen. He thinks its a steep price for a rental also.

Phillies improve bullpen with Carlos Estévez acquisition, Angels get strong...

[owaistabish]

Pardon my ignorance when it comes to compensatory draft picks, but is Estevez eligible for qualifying offer and would Phillies receive a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere?

[andyb]

No comp pick when someone is traded in their last season unfortunately.

[bkox]

but is Estevez eligible for qualifying offer

any player traded during the season can not be offered a Qualifying offer

[zambonir]

The QO compensation is a bit less of a big deal with the Phillies' higher tax bracket. But I'm not sure I'd give him (or Hoffman) one anyway. I mean, yeah, the one-year part would be great but these are guys who make $6.75 million and 2.2 million now. This year the QO was $20.325 million.

It's possible Hoffman will play nice like Strahm did but given he hasn't made any money in this game (relatively speaking) this is also his only shot.

Would you go three years $45 million on either of them (and just assume you'll only get about 50% great value given ups and downs and maybe one so-so year)? I still can't believe Edwin Diaz and Hader got what they got.

[Dirk41]

Is there still a waiver deadline? I can't believe this is it

[bkox]

Is there still a waiver deadline? I can't believe this is it

no waiver deadline... but this deadline hasnt passed yet.

[zambonir]

What is it you think they need to add? There is no difficult stretch run or pennant race they need to get better for, and in the post-season the roster shrinks. That extra relief arm or bench bat might help you win one or two more regular season games but that's just not a big concern. This slump needs to end with the players who were already here, not by some magic addition (let alone the subtraction of another 1-3 good prospects for anything of note). Even in the worse case scenario -where they blow the NL East lead or fail to lock down the #1 seed - that does not necessarily correlate with missing out on a World Series (quite the opposite, in the brief history of the current playoff format).

But yeah, it's also not over. Dombrowski did say he wouldn't be opposed to more pitching if something fell in his lap (which Thor kind of did two years ago).

[Austinfan]

I could see a minor deal, but Dombrowski has strengthened the team without giving up a top prospect.

They lost some organizational pitching depth, but with the emergence of Phillips, hopefully the return of Painter next year and maybe Abel turning it around, it's not a big issue the next few years.

By 2027, they should have enough depth to trade for a young pitcher or two if needed.

[VoteForKalas]

Hays has been pretty underwhelming so far, but SSS and we have to hope it will pan out