Phillies Acquire Carlos Estevez from Angels

[zambonir]

Well, it doesn't really matter how old he is if he's rental. And a reliever for that matter. Could have gotten Robertson again and he's 39 with a three-digit WHIP!

I'm not sure there is really any way for DD to be correct, other than that he's correct Estevez slots into the back of the bullpen at a time when Alvarado and even Strahm has taken some lumps, Soto still isn't reliable and Kerkering is still unfinished. Doesn't mean Estevez won't blow the last save of the season. Someone always does.

[Austinfan]

Klassen was definitely overrated in those rankings, he's got velocity, but command and secondary pitches are an issue, he just got promoted to JS.

Aldegheri is a solid SP prospect, but he's basically Ranger but just started in AA, so what are the odds he actually becomes a reliable 4 pitch, 92-93 crafty lefty?

I'm the one who doesn't like trading prospects, but we're not talking pitchers with a likely ceiling in the top 3 in a rotation (even if there was room for them). I didn't want to trade a top prospect to win now, but the Phillies clearly need bullpen depth. They managed to get a platoon RH and upgrade over SD for the cost of two good but not top prospects.

[phillychuck]

I'm more optimistic about Klassen than most. He's posting an amazing 13.5 K/9IP (in both low A and high A) and those numbers don't usually change a lot as a pitcher moves up through the system. And his BB numbers ar fine. He's been unlucky so far in A+, but he's still got a 3.22 xFIP.

Alghederi? I guess he's a good trade candidate, although I love his story and I'll miss following the best Italian-born player in the pros.

I would have thought one of those guys and a high ceiling-low probability player in low-A would have worked. Maybe Rickardo Perez or another surplus low-level catcher...?

[phillychuck]

Anyone notice that Scottie Jetpax is red hot lately? 30 years old...not on the 40-man roster. Still, he makes a pretty effective 26th man if the hitting is real. He can play everywhere except catcher.

[dicemen99]

I'm more optimistic about Klassen than most. He's posting an amazing 13.5 K/9IP (in both low A and high A) and those numbers don't usually change a lot as a pitcher moves up through the system. And his BB numbers ar fine. He's been unlucky so far in A+, but he's still got a 3.22 xFIP.

Alghederi? I guess he's a good trade candidate, although I love his story and I'll miss following the best Italian-born player in the pros.

I would have thought one of those guys and a high ceiling-low probability player in low-A would have worked. Maybe Rickardo Perez or another surplus low-level catcher...?

Klassen is 22 years old and has spent ONE month in high A with OK results. His best pitch ISN'T his fastball - right now that profiles to be very hittable as his moves up. And he's only got two pitches right now.

Meanwhile Abel is 22 pitching in AAA the whole year. Wonder what Klassen would look like in AAA.

Alghederi was going to have to be protected this year. Among a half dozen other guys who are similar prospects.

I LOVE this trade. Now go out and get another RP and a lefty for the bench and let's win this thing.

[Austinfan]

Got to be careful projection pitchers off JS and hitters off Reading.

On the other hand, if you can hit at JS, you're usually gonna look great at Reading, and if you can pitch at Reading, yuu may blow through Lehigh.

[LegoDoom]

Klassen has barely pitched.

Estévez is in a career year and while his WHIP might be great, it was double last year and almost double lifetime.

I guess the trade is whatever and Klassen is probably a lottery ticket, but I'm not sure that anyone should be loving this trade.

EDIT: He does throw in the very high 90's, so if his fastball isn't his best pitch.....

[Mac]

They have a chance to win a World Series - if Estevez is even close to as effective here for the rest of this run, he's a pivotal piece (that they needed).

It did have a cost to it, sure, but you have to go for it.

We don't want to be sitting here again after a bullpen meltdown costs us another ring.

[andyb]

Klassen is probably going to end up as a 6-7th inning RP like Marte, maybe have a good year or two like SD. Phillies have a lot of these erratic big arms, most never are consistent enough to make it.

The lefty has a good shot at being a #4/#5 starter at some point, maybe a #3 if he continues to develop and add velocity.

Have you seen your own posts on the prospect threads? This is a major price for a rental having a good year after an inconsistent track record. It might work out, but Klassen has at least number 2/3 starter potential and Aldegheri is at least a 4th starter potentially. Remember we did not draft anyone good enough to be starters.

One can understand the logic of the trade and still disagree with the pieces.

[phillychuck]

We don't want to be sitting here again after a bullpen meltdown costs us another ring.

And my point is that Estevez is more likely to be the arsonist in the bullpen meltdown than he is the fireman. It looks from a distance that DD succumbed to the "average Joe having a good year" trap. Maybe the Phils scouts see a reason that he's been so good this season, or his analytics are different. I'll have to look at his velocities and spin rates, but I haven't heard anything is better...

Looking at velocities and movement from Fangraphs and Statcast, his FB is down about 0.5 mph from his last few seasons' average, but its effectiveness has been a little better in 2023 and 24 than previously. His slider has been much better this year with LESS spin, which means he's locating it better or fooling batters with it more or just getting lucky. And he's throwing 10% changeups (a high for him), which have been far better this year than previously, but, again, not showing a lot of movement or spin increase, and it's is third pitch anyway. I don't see anything obvious in the analytics.

His FB is very good when he lands it near the top of the zone, but hittable when waist-high or below. Slider looks like his best pitch, gets called strikes on it up in the zone, and whiffs low and outside. Change up is quite a surprise to batters when he throws it and effective. I think his success will come down to whether he can keep landing his fastball in the top 3 inches or so of the zone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMRJMcfQc90&t=2s

[zambonir]

I think they can all be arsonists. He might not be better than Alvarado. He might be better than Tanner Scott (who maybe would have been cheaper), he might not. It's more about having four quality pieces to throw against the wall, having decided Soto and Kerkering didn't quite rise to that level (nor Seranthony obviously).

[zambonir]

If he can keep doing that, we really did get the new Brad Lidge. If he can't, his career has really not been any better than Alvarado, Seranthony or Soto before this year. And - as you would expect from the numbers below - he was much more hittable in April and May.

Estévez is a rental, but he’s really good. Over the past two months, he has allowed zero runs, three hits and two walks in 18 innings. Opponents have a .140 OPS — go ahead, read that again, it says OPS — against him in that span.

He tosses a 96 mph fastball, a wicked slider and an occasional changeup, and all three pitches have given hitters fits. He also doesn’t walk anyone; his 4.0 percent rate ranks near the top of the league.

MLB Trade Grades: Phillies acquire Carlos Estévez with the World Series in mind

[andyb]

Part of his career "mediocre" record was pitching in Colorado. Career ERA is 5.32 at home but 3.13 on the road. It is possible he figured something out command and control-wise this year (or the walk rate is a SSS anomaly. His walk rate was not special until this year.

Good pitcher, but a pretty steep price for a rental.

[LegoDoom]

I did see that his away stats were decent, but he had an almost 1.5 WHIP last season.

I think that paying for the 2 best months of his career is a questionable move.

[Austinfan]

There's always a balance between going "all in" and hoarding prospects like they're all gold.

I think some of this reflects having a team with a legitimate shot of going to the World Series again, some of this may reflect confidence in their development program and the ability to produce 2nd tier pitchers from retreads and marginal prospects.

I'm not sold on Klassen, hard throwers who dominate low A don't necessarily translate up the ladder. If he had put up the same numbers in Reading, it would be a different matter. Just look at Baker in JS v Reading. He's a nice story in terms of developing a marginal prospect, but until he hits AA ball you won't know if he's a flash in the pan or a serious prospect. His frame doesn't fit a power starter profile (6'2 170 coming out of college), and he's basically a four seamer/slider-curve pitcher. RP is probably his future. The fact he's now #3 for the Angels just shows how thin their system is I'd have him between 7-10 for us.

It's a high price, but building RP depth going into the playoffs is probably Dombrowski's best hope for a run this season.

[dicemen99]

I did see that his away stats were decent, but he had an almost 1.5 WHIP last season.

I think that paying for the 2 best months of his career is a questionable move.

These are moves to try to win a WS. They may or may not work out, but this is how you give your team the best chance to win it. You keep putting yourself in position and one of these times you're going to win it.

They got the best RP available. Maybe some of you wanted Tanner Scott, but @LoneStarPhan would not have survived the season with Scott and high walk ratios certainly don't play in the postseason (against lineups that make you pay) as well as they do in the regular season.

We're all in and all it cost us was a guy with some arm talent who was on nobody's radar a couple of months ago (and is likely due for his value to crater in the next year or two) and another guy who is a solid prospect but was in a crunch because of the 40.

We've got four quality arms to line up in the postseason. And another couple of wild cards in Soto and Kerkering. I'd like to see us add at least another wild card because pen usage is going to ramp up over the next couple of months and I don't want to see our quality guys on fumes like Kimbrel was last year.

[LegoDoom]

We're all in and all it cost us was a guy with some arm talent who was on nobody's radar a couple of months ago (and is likely due for his value to crater in the next year or two)

Why do you think he's likely to crater?

He has ~150 IP in college and the minors and pitched half the time in high school. You think his arm is going to fall off?

If anyone is going to crater in this deal, it's going to be Estévez because his last 2 months are not sustainable.

[Austinfan]

I think they preferred a rental, they can now see how Hoffman and Estevez finish the season and decide which one, if either, they want to sign. Phillies have become a preferred destination, and money isn't a big issue, so it's more a matter of team preference.

Mercado, McGowan is back, McGarry in the pen in Lehigh, McFarlane and Painter back next year.
So they should have arms in Lehigh.

[dicemen99]

We're all in and all it cost us was a guy with some arm talent who was on nobody's radar a couple of months ago (and is likely due for his value to crater in the next year or two)

Why do you think he's likely to crater?

He has ~150 IP in college and the minors and pitched half the time in high school. You think his arm is going to fall off?

If anyone is going to crater in this deal, it's going to be Estévez because his last 2 months are not sustainable.

Because Klassen has about 10 starts in low A ball that has you excited. And he still has to develop a couple of pitches to be viable as a starter. Most likely ends up as a reliever and if he ended up with Estevez' career - well, that would be a great result.

Estevez has an 8 year MLB career with 7 as a positive WAR RP, the last couple as a closer and has elevated his pitching (mostly through fewer walks and continuing a trend over the past few years of reducing HRs) for over a year now. Even some regression gives us a valuable contributor to this years WS pursuit.

Who is more likely to crater again?

[miker]

I am not too concerned about what we gave up. My concern is Estevez first half/second half splits from last year and whether it will occur this year (1.80 ERA first half, over 6.00 ERA second half)....if it does, we have solved nothing.